從目前網上對於王立軍事件的評論看，很少有人相信重慶市的王立軍“休假式治療”源於他“長期超負荷工作，精神高度緊張，身體嚴重不適”的說法。我的問題是，王立軍為什麼不能有病？最複雜的問題，往往有最簡單的答案。

很多人都把王立軍與薄熙來聯繫在一起。這沒錯，因為他們是命運共同體。如果薄熙來想入常，必以打黑為政治資本；拿下王立軍，等於否定打黑，這不符合邏輯。

如果重慶打黑暗藏逼供信等諸多違法行為，薄熙來想以整治王立軍而脫身，這也是不可能的，因為是個人都知道，打黑唱紅的始作俑者是薄熙來，網上流傳的以所謂的兔死狗烹來形容目前的王立軍事件，也是不成立的。

至於說王立軍因貪腐而去美領館試圖逃避，更為可笑。國際刑警及美中聯手打擊貪腐逃犯的比比事例，身為公安局長的王立軍豈能不清楚？還有一種看法，說是王立軍為避免受到薄熙來的殺身，去美領館『舉報』薄熙來的問題，對此，我只能說是太沒有常識。

王立軍問題的核心在於，為什麼要去美領館？我們先看看美國方面怎麼說。

洛杉磯時報：Richard Buanguan, a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, said Wednesday, "As a matter of policy we never comment on reported requests for asylum." Buanguan said that at no time was the consulate in Chengdu under threat.

美國國務院新聞發言人Victoria Nuland 在2月8日答記者問（摘自國務院網站8日新聞簡報）：

QUESTION: I’ve got one on another subject --

MS. NULAND: Please, yes.

QUESTION: -- specifically these reports coming out of China that a deputy mayor of Chongqing had sought refuge at the consulate in Chengdu and that there had been an unexpected increase in security personnel around the consulate for a while. What can you tell us about any of this?

MS. NULAND: Well, I think you’re referring to reports about the vice mayor of Chongqing – right – City. So his name is Wang Lijun. Wang Lijun did request a meeting at the U.S. Consulate General in Chengdu earlier this week in his capacity as vice mayor. The meeting was scheduled, our folks met with him, he did visit the consulate and he later left the consulate of his own volition. So – and obviously, we don’t talk about issues having to do with refugee status, asylum, et cetera.

QUESTION: Okay. But – so can you tell us exactly when that meeting took place?

MS. NULAND: I believe – we’re here on Wednesday – I believe it was Monday, but if that is not right, we will get back to you.

QUESTION: Do you have any information about what – have you had any subsequent contact with him? Because there’s some questions about his whereabouts.

MS. NULAND: Yeah. To my knowledge, we have not.

QUESTION: And aside from any possible thing that you couldn’t talk about on asylum can you tell us what he did talk about there? What was the purpose of this meeting?

MS. NULAND: Frankly, I don’t have anything at the moment on the substance of the meeting.

QUESTION: Can you say why you said he used – why you used the term, “he left the consulate of his – on his own volition”?

MS. NULAND: Well again, there has been some reporting to indicate that that might not have been the case, but it was the case.

QUESTION: Okay. The reporting being that he had been forced to leave or that had been dragged out, or --

MS. NULAND: There’s been unusual reporting about all of this. So just to reaffirm for you, that he walked out, it was his choice.

Okay. Jill.

QUESTION: Can we talk about --

QUESTION: Other subject?

MS. NULAND: Yeah. Please.

QUESTION: Syria?

由上可以確定如下的問題：

1 王立軍去過成都美國領事館

2 王立軍去美領館是事先安排的日程

3 因為王立軍是重慶副市長，去美領館是其職務所具有的能力。

4 王立軍沒有談政治庇護。

5 王立軍自行離開美領館。

在中國官方沒有就王立軍事件更詳細的說法之前或是沒有王立軍本人的說法之前，我們只能詳細美國國務院的說法，並依此為相對可靠的依據就王立軍事件進行分析。

必須要說明的一個問題，申請政治庇護，是民運或法輪功獲得在美國合法身份的主要手段，而網絡上傳出的王立軍去美領館申請政治庇護的說法，與民運和法輪功的思路是一致的。王立軍有天大的問題，也不會蠢到自掘墳墓的程度。

那麼，王立軍去美領館究竟幹什麼？

首先，作為副市長，去美領館談談放寬重慶赴美簽證的事，完全是有可能的。特別是，或許為某個訪美團組或某人未獲簽證而與美方商洽，也是有可能的。

其次，作為剛剛卸任的公安局長，與美方交待相關涉及美國的案件背景，也是有可能的，或許牽涉到兩國的機密或是第3國，因此不便透入詳情。

第三，也是網絡所猜測的，是為個人的前途或是出路去領事館，試圖與美方達成某種協議或共識，以為作為自保的後路。而前往美領館的一個驅動理由，或是憂鬱症導致的害怕所致。

王立軍是中國公安部目前存活的幾個一級英模之一，據說身體負傷20多處，網絡上曾有其妻兒被仇家殺死後扒皮的傳言。重慶打黑後，王立軍得罪的仇家更多，而且多了一個強大的仇家，這就是薄熙來的政敵。王立軍所面臨的壓力，是可以想見的。

王立軍確實有病了，應該是一個合理的選項。我估計，中國政府最終的說辭，也會是如此，也只能如此。

至於薄熙來的政治命運，不會受到太大影響。在習近平訪美的隊伍中，就有重慶市市長黃奇帆，你說習近平是如何看重慶的工作？

與中國的任何網絡事件一樣，王立軍事件很快就會過去。在18大之前，黨內出現再大的問題也會壓住，何況王立軍不過是一個區區副部級。