Biden Won, But the Party Lost.

New York, November 19, 2020

 Biden Won Decisively

Biden finally won the White House with a nationwide popular vote of 79.5 million /51.0%, carrying 25 states and DC with 306 electoral votes. Biden’s decisive victory was indeed historic on at least three accounts: the most popular votes in America’s history, the oldest president when elected, and the first candidate who won after three attempts.

Four years ago, Trump called his win of 302 electoral votes “a historic landslide”, now he lost exactly in a reverse. Can anyone still say HISTORY is boring? However, I bet most people would welcome the sense of GRACE back to the White House because Biden has never bragged his victory as “a historic landslide.”

Most importantly, Biden’s winning margin of 3.8% and almost 6 million popular votes – which is still growing as some states (e.g. NY) still counting their votes – was big enough to overcome the built-in advantage by the Electoral College in favor of the Republicans. After Gore’s margin of more than half million popular votes in 2000, Clinton’s margin of almost 3 million popular votes and 2 percentage points was still not enough in 2016.  

Since the end of Civil War, there have been four occasions in presidential elections when a candidate lost the popular vote but entered the White House through the back door of the Electoral College. And all these four candidates were Republicans: Hayes in 1876, Harrison in 1888, W. Bush in 2000, and Trump in 2016.

Since 1992, there have been eight presidential elections. The Republican party has lost popular votes in all but one in 2004, but grabbed the keys to the White House in 2000 and 2016 through the Electoral College, a political compromise in the slavery era. Had Trump repeated the Electoral College trick this time, the will of the majority voters would have been overturned in three of six presidential elections since 2000 at a 50% frequency. Nevertheless, at 33.33% (two of six) it is still a stunning high frequency for the will of people to be suppressed when the Constitution starts these three words, “We the People”.

So, the presidential election in America is indeed “rigged” because the Electoral College allows one side to win the presidency with only 23 to 27 percent of the popular votes, and it has always benefitted one particular party.

The Democratic Party Lost

Back to this election. There was no blue wave as many expected. While Biden’s victory was decisive, there was no resounding repudiation of Trump who gained the second most votes in history, more than 73.6 million (47.2%), a significant increase from his 63.0 million votes (45.9%) in 2016. A side bar, Trump is going down in history as the only White House-tenant who sneak in from the backdoor and had always been rejected by the majority of American people during his entire 4-year term.

More alarmingly, the Democratic Party did much worse than the polls suggested before the election. In the 435 House races nationwide, the party so far won 75.4 million votes at 50.4% compared to the Republican party’s 72.0 million votes at 48.2%. Although the 2.2% winning margin allowed the Democratic party to retain the majority in the House, it has net lost eight seats with 9 still to be decided. It means about 4.1 million voters voted for Biden but did not vote for the party candidates for the House.

The 35 Senates races were statewide elections, the Republicans had 23 seats to defend, while the Democrats only 12. On paper it should have been a good year for the Democrats who had a winning ticket on the top of the ballot and just needed a net gain of 4 to win an outright majority. However, the Democrats managed to flip only two seats and net gained only one in the Senate because they failed to prevail in the two states Biden won: Maine and Georgia.

In Maine, Biden won over 420,000 votes (53.5%) handily defeating Trump’s 342,000 votes (43.5%); however, Collins, the GOP incumbent, was re-elected with over 385,000 votes (50.6%) easily defeating her Democratic opponent who got only about 325,000 votes (42.7%). There were about 95,000 Biden voters who did NOT vote for the party candidate.

In Georgia, Biden won 2.47 million votes (49.52%) edging Trump’s 2.46 million votes (49.23%); however, Perdue, the GOP incumbent, got 2.46 million votes or 49.7% almost exactly the same as Trump did, while his Democratic opponent who got only 2.37 million votes or 48.0%. There were about 100,000 Biden voters who did NOT vote for the party candidate.

There Is No Massive Vote Fraud

With such significant split voting in both the House and in the Senate races, the first logical conclusion we can certainly draw is there was no evidence of massive organized vote fraud by either party. On November 12, 2020, a broad coalition of Federal election infrastructure officials and state election officials declared that the 2020 Election was the “most secure in American history” and there "is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised." Trump then tweeter-fired Chris Krebs, the director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency for speaking the truth.

Another side bar, Hillary Clinton gave a gracious concession speech one day after the 2016 election, while Obama invited Trump to the White House the next day, and Biden welcome Pence to his office. So, in the 2016 election a Democratic candidate won the popular vote during a Democratic administration, the Democrats did not cry voter fraud; By contrast in the 2020 election, a Republican candidate lost both the popular vote and electoral vote during his own administration, but now he and his crowd are crying voter fraud?  What is the definition of sore loser again? But more importantly for Trump and his GOP enablers in Congress, where is the respect for the will of people, what happened to their oath to the Constitution? Since when the definition of democracy has changed to “Only way we lose is if election is rigged.”

The second obvious conclusion would be the majority voters clearly fired Trump from the White House, but more than four million Biden voters were unease about the Democratic party, not to mention the fact that Trump increased his popular votes by more than 10.5 million. Like many people I was deeply shocked to see Trump got 10.5 million more votes, but that is another question for another day.

The Hard Question Facing the Democratic Party

For now, I want to focus on what was in the mind of those four million plus voters who voted for Biden but did not vote for the party in congressional races nationwide? We need to understand why they decided to split their votes at the very moment of filling their ballot. The answer to this question has nothing to do with voter suppression or gerrymandering, nor anything to do with holding rallies or door-knocking.

In particular, the party should take a close look at those 195,000 voters in Maine and Georgia, and find out what motivated them to vote for Biden, and what drove them away from the party’s senate candidates? Had the party gained the support from these 195,000 voters, the Democrats could have already gained the control of the Senate and sent Mitch McConnell into the minority.

Why were these voters comfortable with Biden but not the party? If the Democrats and its allies fail to seriously reflect on this question, there will be more troubles in 2022 because Trump and the GOP have expanded their reach in many segments of the electorates.

“Black Lives Matter” v. “Every Life Matters”

While this author fully understands the historical background since the slavery era and the numerous killings of black persons by police officers with no accountability in most cases in recent years, the “Black Live Matter” (BLM) slogan has been very counter-productive in gaining broad sympathy and support from other communities because it has unavoidably caused other groups to question “does it mean our lives do not matter?” or to simply stay aside “since it is about only black lives, not about our lives.”

This is really a self-inflicted blunder on both strategic and tactical levels. Why not call for “Every Life Matters”? Most, if not all, of Americans know and agree our country was founded upon this basic principle: “All men are created equal”.

Again, this author supports the BLM movement, but believes with “Every Life Matters”, the movement could have a far better chance to rally the broadest support possible from all walks of society, regardless of race, gender, age, sexual orientation, etc.

Remember, Dr. King championed the civil rights movement for all people, not just blacks, his “I have a dream” speech was inclusive of both blacks and whites.

“Defund the Police” v. “Rule of Law” / “Justice for All”

While this author shares the deep sense of injury by the systemic racism and the immense frustration by the lack of justice, this “Defund the Police” (DLP) slogan is another reckless blooper on a much greater scale. While the BLM slogan has failed to gain broad support, the DTP slogan has simply scared away a significant portion of the general public, and alienated many good men and women in the law enforcement. 

Yes, this author is aware that the city of Camden in 2014 abolished the old police department, but it immediately rebuilt a whole new one. Hence, the example actually proves DTP is not only a pure fantasy, but also irresponsible because the logical follow-up question is “what happens after defunding the police? Lawlessness?” DTP is a means to no good end at all. To overcome the resistance of police union among others institutional problems, what is needed is comprehensive policing reform with overwhelming support from the public who is more likely to identify with “Every Life Matters”.

Even though Biden has repeatedly denounced riots and all violent protests, and rejected defunding police, the DTP slogan has enabled Trump to borrow Nixon’s playbook presenting himself as the candidate of “Law and Order”, and portraying Biden and the Democrats as lawless, while Trump in fact is the one who has  intentionally inflamed racial-driven violence. 

While the 1994 Crime Bill authored by Biden became a controversial issue during the 2020 campaign, it was a significant effort by the Democratic Party and Bill Clinton to wrestle the issue of crime away from the Republicans. Indeed, it was quite successful in neutralizing this issue in the 1996 campaign. Yes, reasonable people of good-faith can argue the goods and bads about the 1994 Crime Bill, and learn the lessons from it, but remember, hindsight is always 2020. It is quite unfair for some within the party to take potshots on Biden during the primary campaign; and it is even more self-inflicting to hand the “Law and Order” card back to Trump and the Republicans.

Ultimately, everyone wants “the Rule of Law” and “Justice for All”. Those tragic killings of unarmed black people among others by police were grave assaults to these two basic principles identified by all Americans. Most, if not all, Americans want those individual police officers, like everyone else, to be subject to the due process under the rule of law so that justice can be served for all, particularly for the victims and their family?

Again, Biden rightly rejected the DTP slogan because it will never help us gain the broadest support from all Americans to achieve the ultimate goal of “the Rule of Law” and “Justice for All”. So, why not call for “the Rule of Law” and “Justice for All”? 

“Socialism” v. “Opportunity for All”

Using the label of “Socialism” to attack the Democrats has long been the GOP’s one of the primary dirty tricks. Trump simply followed the same playbook. Yes, Sanders has proclaimed himself a Democratic Socialist, but he is not even a registered Democrat. The Democratic Party has been grossly inept in fighting back this GOP/Trump dirty trick.

As NYT reported on November 5, 2020, while a majority of Latinos including Cuban-Americans, have supported and been benefited from the Affordable Healthcare Act (ACA), a.k.a Obamacare, but 52% of Cuban-Americans in Florida voted for Trump and GOP candidates who have repeatedly attempted to repeal the ACA. In fact, like many public polls the Kaiser Family Foundation’s tracking poll (KFF) reported on  October 16, 2020 that a clear majority of 55% Americans now favors the ACA. More perplexingly, many Venezuelan-Americans voted for Trump who opposed the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) for Venezuelan immigrants while Biden and the Democrats supported TPS because of the on-going political crisis and social unrest in Venezuela. Why did these voters “bite the hand that feeds them?” The NYT reporter explained that “some of those voters are genuinely afraid of socialism”. While perhaps these voters have mistaken authoritarianism for socialism, Trump, a real genius in this regard, saw the opening to attack Biden and the Democrats, who have utterly failed to respond.

Hopefully many readers can still remember the long 12 years of Reagan/Bush during which the Democratic Party was relegated to the political wilderness. The GOP was very successful in playing the cards of “Soft on Crime” and “Big Tax Big Spending Socialism” against the Democrats. Bill Clinton and his moderate wing brought the party back to power for eight years by claiming the political center through “Opportunity for all, Responsibility from all” (OFARFA), another  principle all Americans identify with.

OFARFA means a civilized society with compassion (remember the Bushes?) will help those who are willing to take the self-initiatives and work hard for themselves. For example, this author believes most, if not all Americans, would agree it is a worthy and reasonable goal to make public college education affordable to all people who choose public college education. And few people like freeloaders. Therefore, the slogan such as “Free Tuition” for public colleges hands the GOP another huge hammer to attack the Democratic party. Why not propose “Interest Free Student Loans” that would be interest free if repaid in full with in ten years of graduation? Such proposal would be consistent with the two principles of OFARFA. Many parents already have such interest free agreement with their children, and people who have no children or do not go to college would be far less against this idea. After all, the cost of subsidizing loan interest is much less than the total loan cost, hence far more affordable for the federal budget and far more acceptable to the majority of taxpayers. The fact is, even most parents understand it is a terrible idea to let their children know they can spend four years on college campus without any responsibility and consequence.

OFARFA also means a civilized society with the rule of law will hold the rich and the powerful accountable for their wrongdoings. Having inherited the worst financial crisis and economic recession since the Great Depression, the Obama administration understood it had to bail out the Wall Street in order to prevent a total economic collapse, which otherwise would be far more devastating to ordinary people in all walks of life. However, by failing to hold the big banks on Wall Street accountable, Obama and the Democrats alienated a big portion of the public who became the base for the Tea Party and readily susceptible to Trump’s “drain the swamp” even though the GOP and Trump have always done far more in deepening and benefitting from the swamp. It is the height of hypocrisy for the GOP and Trump, but also the height of political-malpractice for the Democratic Party who suffered a shellacking defeat the 2010 midterm election. 

The Democrats Need Better Messaging to Win Broad Support

These are just three examples of many inept messaging for the Democratic Party and its allies to reflect. There is no deny that the GOP and Trump have always been cunning in their messaging because they have no substances beyond tax cuts and deregulations. Heck, the RNC did not even bother with coming up a party platform this year. Meanwhile the DNC published a 92-page 2020 party platform, compared to the 50-page 2016 party platform.

The sad truth is not many electorates have time and/or attention-span to read through the party platform, but most voters will respond to ear-catching messages. The Democratic Party and its allies must learn to fight back the GOP/Trump with stronger messages supported by better solutions than the other side.

An effective message should be not only consistent with the value we hold dear (e.g. “Every Life Matters”, “Justice for All” and “Opportunity for all, Responsibility from All”), but also appealing to the broadest electorates, and most of all, not open for any unintended misinterpretation or any intentional manipulation. Based on these Communication 101 criteria, “BLM”, “DTP” and “Socialism” are really NOT the best messages to win as many votes as possible in as many communities as possible.

Which Party is the Extreme Radical?

The history since the end of the Cold War has shown that only by firmly holding the center of the political spectrum can the Democratic Party win the broadest public support from the general public and advance social reform step by step. Since Clinton won Georgia in 1992 and Arizona in 1996, Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia and Arizona. This was no accident, because Biden has always been a moderate centrist Democrat like Clinton.

Trump and the Republican Party have always called the Democratic Party as being the radical far left. Well, let’s take a look at the tax codes since most people care about how much taxes they have to pay. Putting the Nordic countries aside, let’s see Germany and the U. K. where yours truly once worked and lived more than five years. In Germany, the Christian Democratic Party has been in power for over 15 years since 2005. The highest tax bracket in Germany is 45%. The Conservative Party in the UK has been in power for 10 years since 2010. The highest tax bracket in the UK is also 45%. Clinton, Obama and Biden all want the highest tax rate kept at 39.6%, that is more conservative than the conservative party in Germany and the U.K.!

In fact, compared with the major political parties among the developed democracies, the Republican Party in the U.S. holds the most lonely and radical position on many major issues, such as climate change, progressive taxes, minimum wage, equal pay for equal work, women’s right to choose, equal right for marriage, basic healthcare, gun safety, equal voting right without voter suppression, campaign finance, transparency (e.g. full disclosure of personal assets and taxes) against public corruption and conflict of interest, and so on.

Will the Democrats Learn the Lessons?

 Now there are two runoffs for the Senate in Georgia. This is the last chance for the Democratic Party to gain the control of the Senate, and the last chance for the Biden administration to have a realistic chance to effectively advance much-needed reforms.

Besides the hypocrisy - even Ted Cruz couldn’t deny - of always crying out loud deficit and debt only when a Democrat in the White House, here is the GOP long-standing well-drilled playbook:

1.      obstruction against Democrat’s every initiative (even when Obama adopted their ideas, such as the Obamacare from Romneycare, the cap-and-trade idea from Bush 41, renewal of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban supported by Ford and Reagan, etc.),

2.      grinding the government to dysfunction until the next election cycle, then turnaround

3.      deceiving the electorate to blame the Democrats for the dysfunction they intentionally caused.

The masterpiece of such obstruction-grinding-deceiving-blaming in recent years was the failed immigration reform in 2013. After the bipartisan immigration bill was passed 68-32 in the Senate, John Boehner, a Republican, the then-Speaker of the House of Representatives, never allowed the Senate bill to be debated and voted on the House floor? Why? Because he knew given a vote the Senate bill would have been passed, Obama would have scored another major achievement, and the Republican Party would not be able to continue to attack Obama and the Democrats on immigration issues and “open border”. The fact is that Obama deported 3 million people during his eight years in power, the most ever on record so far.

Unfortunately, the GOP’s such play has worked too many times. However, “Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.”

The question is this, whether will the Democratic Party and its allies learn these lessons to formulate more effective messaging and practical solutions that can (1) earn the broadest support possible from all segments of the electorates, and (2) give the GOP and Trump little chance to smear and divide? Will they learn in time to win the two runoffs in Georgia?

If not, get ready for four more years of gridlock and dysfunction in Washington while the pandemic crisis, the economic crisis, the racial crisis and the climate crisis will continue to deepen and wreck the lives of all ordinary people across the country.