傑夫·魯賓（Jeff Rubin）的書《Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller》和克里斯托弗·施泰納（Christopher Steiner）的書《$20 Per Gallon》通過確鑿的數據和清晰的邏輯推演明確地告訴大家：一旦世界的經濟從現在的金融危機中恢復過來，三位數的高油價（每桶100美元以上）將成為我們日常生活的常態。伴隨着油價的持續攀升和因此而劇增的貨物運輸費用，世界各地的經濟體都將無可避免地逐漸走上本土化和局域化的道路。用一句更加震撼人心的話來概括：高懸於三位數的油價定會把過去三十年以來的全球化成果化為烏有。
triple-digit oil prices will soon return to our everyday life after the current financial crisis is over. Along with it, economy everywhere will inevitably become more local to save on the shipping cost. In other words, high oil prices will rewind the globalization process of the past three decades.
Not far in the distant future, export-based economy will not be able to sustain its operation any longer. This localization process will have a huge effect on those export-based economies with small domestic markets (e.g., South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, etc.) that cannot self-support their own growth if isolated from and not integrated into those self-containable economies (i.e., China and the USA). (This is another evidence that most of the people and politicians in Taiwan are very short-sighted, severely lacking long-range vision for what will happen in the future. I have no further desire to discuss this emotional matter here.)
In light of this insight, the current financial crisis waged mainly in the Western countries is ideal for China’s transition from export-based economy to domestic reliant economy. At the end of the tunnel, China will certainly take No. 2 superpower spot in the world with a healthy domestic market and work force to further fuel its growth for many years to come.
In the meantime, the US will spend a lot of its money, man power, resources, time, and efforts to re-localize its economy back to the good old model of 30 years ago. This will defer the pace of American progress and will open a window for China to take the lead much earlier than many people have previously thought. In 5 to 10 years from now, China will become No. 1!
Remember a simple fact: service and consumption sector contributes more than 70% of American (or any other Western developed countries’) GDP. After returning to the manufacturing based economy, the real GDP of the USA will shrink in reality without currency inflation effects. China, on the other hand, will gradually appreciate its currency and expand its own service and consumption sector. You do the analysis from here.
You might want to know which area will grant you a long-lasting, highly paid career opportunity in the West. It is the solar energy sector. Go after it if you are still young or you have lots of money to invest.
