杰夫·鲁宾（Jeff Rubin）的书《Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller》和克里斯托弗·施泰纳（Christopher Steiner）的书《$20 Per Gallon》通过确凿的数据和清晰的逻辑推演明确地告诉大家：一旦世界的经济从现在的金融危机中恢复过来，三位数的高油价（每桶100美元以上）将成为我们日常生活的常态。伴随着油价的持续攀升和因此而剧增的货物运输费用，世界各地的经济体都将无可避免地逐渐走上本土化和局域化的道路。用一句更加震撼人心的话来概括：高悬于三位数的油价定会把过去三十年以来的全球化成果化为乌有。
triple-digit oil prices will soon return to our everyday life after the current financial crisis is over. Along with it, economy everywhere will inevitably become more local to save on the shipping cost. In other words, high oil prices will rewind the globalization process of the past three decades.
Not far in the distant future, export-based economy will not be able to sustain its operation any longer. This localization process will have a huge effect on those export-based economies with small domestic markets (e.g., South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, etc.) that cannot self-support their own growth if isolated from and not integrated into those self-containable economies (i.e., China and the USA). (This is another evidence that most of the people and politicians in Taiwan are very short-sighted, severely lacking long-range vision for what will happen in the future. I have no further desire to discuss this emotional matter here.)
In light of this insight, the current financial crisis waged mainly in the Western countries is ideal for China’s transition from export-based economy to domestic reliant economy. At the end of the tunnel, China will certainly take No. 2 superpower spot in the world with a healthy domestic market and work force to further fuel its growth for many years to come.
In the meantime, the US will spend a lot of its money, man power, resources, time, and efforts to re-localize its economy back to the good old model of 30 years ago. This will defer the pace of American progress and will open a window for China to take the lead much earlier than many people have previously thought. In 5 to 10 years from now, China will become No. 1!
Remember a simple fact: service and consumption sector contributes more than 70% of American (or any other Western developed countries’) GDP. After returning to the manufacturing based economy, the real GDP of the USA will shrink in reality without currency inflation effects. China, on the other hand, will gradually appreciate its currency and expand its own service and consumption sector. You do the analysis from here.
You might want to know which area will grant you a long-lasting, highly paid career opportunity in the West. It is the solar energy sector. Go after it if you are still young or you have lots of money to invest.
