今晚是第70届电影金球奖的颁奖仪式，作为影迷我看了提名的大部分的电影，简单谈谈我对今晚金球奖电影奖项的预测吧。
2012年是好莱坞的剧情片大年，虽然金球奖的奖项是把“剧情类”和“音乐戏剧类”分开计算，与奥斯卡相比会有更多的奖项，但今年的剧情类影片中，在电影《林肯》Lincoln， 《逃离德黑兰》Argo和《猎杀本-拉登》Zero Dark Thirty之间，谁能拿到最佳影片和最佳导演奖还会有一番争夺。
我觉得最佳电影奖会归《林肯》，最佳导演奖会在《逃离德黑兰》Argo和《猎杀本-拉登》Zero Dark Thirty之间争夺。
而剧情类电影的影帝非扮演林肯的Daniel Day-Lewis莫属，据说他花了一年多时间准备林肯这个角色，真是表演的出神入化，让人感悟为什么林肯会成为美国历史上最伟大的领袖人物之一。而影后会归属于《猎杀本-拉登》中的女主角Jessica Chastain，她扮演的这个没有家庭没有朋友的女工作狂，顶着巨大的压力下，把蛛丝马迹连起来，最后找到本-拉登的老巢，让人信服。
在今年的戏剧类影片中，《悲惨世界》Les Misérables和《乌云背后的幸福线》Silver Linings Playbook表现突出。
虽说头部片子争议很大，那些酷爱《悲惨世界》音乐剧的歌迷们对这部电影中的演唱片段不甚满意，但我觉得搬上银幕的电影有着音乐剧比不上的优势，场面巨大，气势宏伟，演员全身心的投入演出，把雨果的这部巨作更深刻全面地展示在更多的观众面前。我觉得这部影片能获得戏剧类影片的最佳影片奖，而Hugh Jackman扮演的冉阿让将获得最佳男主角奖，Anne Hathaway扮演的芳汀也会获得最佳女配角奖。
而另一部反映精神异常的人在现代社会中挣扎的《乌云背后的幸福线》也是今年值得一看的好影片，影片的英文原名中的silver linings相当于我们中文中“拨开乌云见明月”的意思。影片从男主角自精神病院出院回家后面临的一系列家庭危机，处处碰壁开始，直到碰到一个和他精神状态相似的女孩，互相理解，互相扶持着，再次回到正常的人生轨道上。影片让人思索在现代社会中，什么是正常，什么是不正常？该如何对待这些“不正常的人”。这是一部隐含深层哲理的好片。片中男女主角都演的非常好，特别是扮演女主角的Jennifer Lawrence从一出场就抓住了你的视线，她用个性化的语言、面部的表情和肢体动作，把复杂的女主角演得淋漓尽致。她出道时间不长，但在她担纲的几部片子中都表现突出，也一定会以自己在片中杰出的表演获得最佳女主角奖。
下面是我今晚的预测：
GOLDEN GLOBES NOMINATIONS - FILM BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA "Argo" "Django Unchained" "Life of Pi" "Lincoln" "Zero Dark Thirty" Winner: "Lincoln"
BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" "Les Misérables" "Moonrise Kingdom" "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" "Silver Linings Playbook" Winner: "Les Misérables"
BEST DIRECTOR - MOTION PICTURE Ben Affleck - "Argo" Quentin Tarantino - "Django Unchained" Ang Lee - "Life of Pi" Steven Spielberg - "Lincoln" Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty" Winner: Ben Affleck, "Argo" （1） Kathryn Bigelow - "Zero Dark Thirty"（2）
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA Rachel Weisz - "The Deep Blue Sea" Helen Mirren - "Hitchcock" Naomi Watts - "The Impossible" Marion Cotillard - "Rust and Bone" Jessica Chastain - "Zero Dark Thirty" Winner: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE- DRAMA Richard Gere - "Arbitrage" Denzel Washington - "Flight" Daniel Day-Lewis - "Lincoln" Joaquin Phoenix - "The Master" John Hawkes - "The Sessions" Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln"
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL Judi Dench - "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" Meryl Streep - "Hope Springs" Maggie Smith - "Quartet" Emily Blunt - "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" Jennifer Lawrence - "Silver Linings Playbook" Winner: Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook"
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY/MUSICAL Jack Black - "Bernie" Bill Murray - "Hyde Park on Hudson" Hugh Jackman - "Les Misérables" Ewan McGregor - "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" Bradley Cooper - "Silver Linings Playbook" Winner: Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables"
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE Anne Hathaway - "Les Misérables" Sally Field - "Lincoln" Amy Adams - "The Master" Nicole Kidman - "The Paperboy" Helen Hunt - "The Sessions" Winner: Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE Alan Arkin - "Argo" Christoph Waltz - "Django Unchained" Leonardo DiCaprio - "Django Unchained" Tommy Lee Jones - "Lincoln" Philip Seymour Hoffman - "The Master" Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained"
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM "Amour" "The Intouchables" "Kon-Tiki" "A Royal Affair" "Rust and Bone" Winner: "Amour"
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