附原文：
LIKE FATHER LIKE SON
AND
WHY KIM JONG UN WILL RULE LIKE HIS FATHER
By Tadie (December 21st, 2011)
The death of Kim Jon IL has elevated his youngest son to the pinnacle of power of North Korea and with it hope in the west that he will be a reformer. Why does the west raise its hopes that he will be a reformer? Because he studied in Switzerland and likes NBA basketball.
The history of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century has proven that argument to be a complete fallacy. Kim Jong Un will rule just like his father and his grandfather before him. It’s what he knows and what he has been taught to do.
There are many precedents for this proof.
The current leader of Syria, Bashir Assad was educated in London to be an eye doctor. He lived and studied there for years. It was assumed, prior to the death of his father Hafez Assad, that he had no real inclination to rule Syria. But, when the time came he readily took the reins of power and ruled just like his father had. With an iron fist. Living in western culture had changed him little once he was back in his native culture and he had absolute power.
Libyan dictator Moammar Khaddafi’s son Seif was to be his appointed successor. He too had studied in the USA at prestigious Universities. He was thought to be a moderate by the west and the west, including the USA, thought that when he did assume power from his father that he could reform Libya from its terrorist ways. History has of course changed that dynamic. Moammar Khaddafi is now dead and Seif is imprisoned. However, before his families fall from power he carried out brutal oppression against the protestors with summary executiions, killing of women and children, and other atrocities against the people. His western education hadn’t changed him at all. He was well prepared to be a brutal dictator and hold onto power for his father, and himself.
Yuri Andropov, a former leader of Soviet Union and KGB Chief was fond of American Jazz music. Initially, the west believed that perhaps he would be a moderate, too, despite his KGB background – because he liked jazz music from New Orleans.
With the above examples, and there are other lesser known ones, I would not be hopeful that Kim Jong Un will be a reformer of the North Korean economy or society. Even if he wanted to, it would be nearly impossible. The North Korean military consumes 25% of the national economy. I doubt they would be in favor of giving up any power or wealth to the masses. Kim Jong Un would be reluctant to irritate the military as well since they are the force behind his hope to stay in power for life. So, in a tacit relationship such as this Kim Jong Un perhaps depends on the military more than they depend on him.
There is no “upside” for Kim Jong Un to change the system. He will in time have absolute power if he just maintains the status quo. Trying to change it could tempt a military coup against him. It also doesn’t make sense because history has shown that absolute rulers like power. They are reluctant, if ever, wanting to give it up once it is attained. Hosni Mubarek of Egypt ruled for 30 years until the ARAB SPRING took away his power. Saddam Hussein’s family ruled Iraq like a private piggy bank for decades until USA forces forced him from power and into hiding until his eventual arrest and execution. Nicolai Ceasecu of Romania held onto power to the last until his people over threw him and executed him and his wife.
The powerful do not like to give up power. It’s dangerous to give it up. Even more dangerous to lose it.
Kim Jong IL will not give up his power. He will not reform North Korea. He will rule it just as his father did. Just like history has proven over and over – he will repeat the history. All despots repeat history until history catches up to them, as it eventually does, and their system is thrown to the trash of political history.
It has been said that absolute power corrupts absolutely and it is true. Kim Jong Un can only do what he knows, what he has been taught. It’s absolute.
