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 | 美國在烏克蘭勝利了還是失敗了？ |
| | 美國在烏克蘭勝利了還是失敗了？ 這麼說， 美國在烏克蘭的行動投資規模數億，這個龐大的計劃必然經過多次計算機模擬推延， 外人的推測只能是盲人摸大象，即便和盤托出全部計劃， 我們草民級別的螞蟻也不會知道大象到底什麼樣子。 可是， 我們好奇嗎， 儘管知道偏頗，但是也還喜歡亂發一些議論。
有些輿論認為俄羅斯果斷出手把克里米亞收歸囊中，美國束手無策所以失敗了。 這樣看美國策劃烏克蘭事件的目的是什麼， 美國策劃烏克蘭的最直接目的就是阻止默克爾與普京偷情。烏克蘭是普京默克爾偷情的梯子， 現在梯子被砸爛了， 普京暴跳如雷，把梯子底座搬到自己家裡去了。 普京勝利了， 奧巴馬失敗了？ 從普京搬回家的克里米亞看普京勝利了， 從拆毀默克爾與普京偷情的梯子這個角度看奧巴馬勝利了。
但是， 阻止普京與默克爾偷情並非最高目的，提前毀掉美元的競爭對手歐洲歐元， 保護美國的核心利益， 也就是美元印刷權才是美國的最高目的。 站在這個角度衡量奧巴馬勝利了嗎？
未必， 因為俄羅斯偷情默克爾不成， 這本來就是非分之想， 奧巴馬的老情婦偶爾拋一個媚眼普京就當真了， 幻想着拉人家的小老婆捐款私奔，這種事情西門慶做的是時候也要等人家的小老婆把老公榨乾弄死之後。 現在普京認清自己的癩蛤蟆模樣之後大概只能降低標準， 另找過日子的搭檔。 這美元的命運還真不好說。
美國寬鬆好幾年了， 成萬億的美元流向世界流向股市總是讓人心驚肉跳，如果美國人不了解蔣介石金元卷的風光， 美國不可能不知道一戰以後德國馬克的悲喜劇，外加酒鬼葉利欽相信了蛤福高參的高見，經互會之間自動取消盧布，改用美元， 結果盧布倒灌引起的盧布海嘯。 美國的想法很簡單， 拉住歐洲情婦與日本丫鬟一起寬鬆，讓中國俄國印度還有其他南方國家無處躲藏乖乖地接受金融洗劫。
可是膩，可是。。
俄羅斯如果死心塌地跟隨窮小子們， 這事情還真不好辦。 假如這幾個窮光蛋湊在一起說， 你們只管印錢， 俺們從此以後易貨貿易，啥錢也不用了， 當年希特勒就是這麼幹的， 誰說不一定成功？ 蘋果手機用不起，就用小米好了。這幾個窮貨湊一起還別說，湊合過日子也不缺啥。
所以我說是否鎮壓東烏克蘭的恐怖分子， 奧巴馬費思量！裝甲車雖然開上了街， 但是炮口角度怎麼調整， 美國的超級計算機一定在日夜計算， 別說， 一台計算機耗電量差不多等於一個中等城市， 你們家停電就是烏克蘭的難題造成的。
http://rbth.com/business/2014/04/14/brics_countries_to_set_up_their_own_imf_35891.html
BRICS countries to set up their own IMF
Olga Samofalova, Vzglyad, 14 April 2014
Very soon, the IMF will cease to be the world's only organization capable of rendering international financial assistance. The BRICS countries are setting up alternative institutions, including a currency reserve pool and a development bank.
The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) have made significant progress in setting up structures that would serve as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are dominated by the U.S. and the EU. A currency reserve pool, as a replacement for the IMF, and a BRICS development bank, as a replacement for the World Bank, will begin operating as soon as in 2015, Russian Ambassador at Large Vadim Lukov has said.
Brazil has already drafted a charter for the BRICS Development Bank, while Russia is drawing up intergovernmental agreements on setting the bank up, he added.
In addition, the BRICS countries have already agreed on the amount of authorized capital for the new institutions: $100 billion each. "Talks are under way on the distribution of the initial capital of $50 billion between the partners and on the location for the headquarters of the bank. Each of the BRICS countries has expressed a considerable interest in having the headquarters on its territory," Lukov said.
It is expected that contributions to the currency reserve pool will be as follows: China, $41 billion; Brazil, India, and Russia, $18 billion each; and South Africa, $5 billion. The amount of the contributions reflects the size of the countries' economies.
By way of comparison, the IMF reserves, which are set by the Special Drawing Rights (SDR), currently stand at 238.4 billion euros, or $369.52 billion dollars. In terms of amounts, the BRICS currency reserve pool is, of course, inferior to the IMF. However, $100 billion should be quite sufficient for five countries, whereas the IMF comprises 188 countries - which may require financial assistance at any time.
BRICS Development Bank
The BRICS countries are setting up a Development Bank as an alternative to the World Bank in order to grant loans for projects that are beneficial not for the U.S. or the EU, but for developing countries.
The purpose of the bank is to primarily finance external rather than internal projects. The founding countries believe that they are quite capable of developing their own projects themselves. For instance, Russia has a National Wealth Fund for this purpose.
"Loans from the Development Bank will be aimed not so much at the BRICS countries as for investment in infrastructure projects in other countries, say, in Africa,” says Ilya Prilepsky, a member of the Economic Expert Group. “For example, it would be in BRICS' interest to give a loan to an African country for a hydropower development program, where BRICS countries could supply their equipment or act as the main contractor."
If the loan is provided by the IMF, the equipment will be supplied by western countries that control its operations.
The creation of the BRICS Development Bank has a political significance too, since it allows its member states to promote their interests abroad. "It is a political move that can highlight the strengthening positions of countries whose opinion is frequently ignored by their developed American and European colleagues. The stronger this union and its positions on the world arena are, the easier it will be for its members to protect their own interests," points out Natalya Samoilova, head of research at the investment company Golden Hills-Kapital AM.
Having said that, the creation of alternative associations by no means indicates that the BRICS countries will necessarily quit the World Bank or the IMF, at least not initially, says Ilya Prilepsky.
Currency reserve pool
In addition, the BRICS currency reserve pool is a form of insurance, a cushion of sorts, in the event a BRICS country faces financial problems or a budget deficit. In Soviet times, it would have been called "a mutual benefit society", says Nikita Kulikov, deputy director of the consulting company HEADS. Some countries in the pool will act as a safety net for the other countries in the pool.
The need for such protection has become evident this year, when developing countries' currencies, including the Russian ruble, have been falling.
The currency reserve pool will assist a member country with resolving problems with its balance of payments by making up a shortfall in foreign currency. Assistance can be given when there is a sharp devaluation of the national currency or massive capital flight due to a softer monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve System, or when there are internal problems, or a crisis, in the banking system. If banks have borrowed a lot of foreign currency cash and are unable to repay the debt, then the currency reserve pool will be able to honor those external obligations.
This structure should become a worthy alternative to the IMF, which has traditionally provided support to economies that find themselves in a budgetary emergency.
"A large part of the fund goes toward saving the euro and the national currencies of developed countries.Given that governance of the IMF is in the hands of western powers, there is little hope for assistance from the IMF in case of an emergency. That is why the currency reserve pool would come in very handy," says ambassador Lukov.
The currency reserve pool will also help the BRICS countries to gradually establish cooperation without the use of the dollar, points out Natalya Samoilova. This, however, will take time. For the time being, it has been decided to replenish the authorized capital of the Development Bank and the Currency Reserve Pool with U.S. dollars. Thus, the U.S. currency system is getting an additional boost. However, it cannot be ruled out that very soon (given the threat of U.S. and EU economic sanctions against Russia)the dollar may be replaced by the ruble and other national currencies of the BRICS counties. |
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