Michael Jacobides

At first sight, the recent US executive order blacklisting Chinese group Huawei looks like a classic Donald Trump move: brash, assertive, nationalistic. But look closer and it is clear that putting “America first” could ultimately mean the US finishes last.

The US pushback against Huawei began with its 5G infrastructure business. Citing security concerns, the US made a concerted effort to convince western allies to drop the company from their 5G networks — with mixed success. The fight has now morphed into a broader ban that makes it near impossible for US companies — and any firm with US interests — to do business with any part of the Huawei empire. That includes Huawei’s up-and-coming consumer division, the world’s second-biggest smartphone producer.

For Huawei, it looks like a body blow. US groups such as Qualcomm must stop supplying it, but so must UK-based Arm, which has American ties. Then again, Huawei is the world’s biggest telecoms equipment manufacturer, and only draws a small, if important, part of its inputs from the US. The Chinese group could work round the ban, if it finds suppliers to replace the high-end mobile phone glass it gets from Corning.

Any short-term benefit to Huawei’s US competitors will be offset by hits to the company’s suppliers and customers as well as reduced impetus for innovation. Further out, this protectionist move will encourage Huawei and other Chinese groups to develop their own technology. Given how far they have already come, that might wind up doing further harm to US suppliers and their dominance of the market.

However, devices such as phones do not stand alone. They are part of ecosystems, such as Google’s Android platform and related apps including Netflix, WhatsApp and YouTube. Devices, operating systems, apps, services and accessories come together to create a unified customer experience.

These global ecosystems are largely managed by American companies, and the executive order all but forbids Google, along with US-based Android developers, from working with Huawei phones. In other words, President Donald Trump has banished Huawei from the Google ecosystem.

Initially, losing Google’s ecosystem partners could hurt Huawei even more than having its supply chain upended, as customers may stop using Huawei kit that can’t offer the complements they know and love. But in the short to medium term we can expect Huawei to start building its own competing ecosystem, while protecting its position in China and other national markets.

This rival ecosystem might not overtake Google’s Android, but Huawei would be foolish not to try. The challenge is clear — and if anyone can overcome it, it’s the Huawei of 2019. If this had happened four years ago, the technology gap might have been too wide for the Chinese group to bridge. But today’s Huawei might rise to the dare and win — and that would transform the entire mobile sector.

The Trump administration hasn’t just stepped up the trade war; it may have changed the future face of mobile technology. Without an external shock, Huawei could have profitably stuck with Google’s ecosystem. But now the gauntlet is down: Huawei and others have been pushed to challenge Google’s dominance to ensure their own survival.

Google understands the risk to its dominance. It has just asked for the Android operating system to be exempted from the export ban. But it may be too late. Even if the Trump administration agrees or it lifts the ban as part of a broader trade deal, the Rubicon has been crossed, and the risk to Huawei and other Chinese companies has become visible.

These actions by the Trump administration have not only pushed us closer to a world split between a “Chinese-based” and “US-based” internet; they may also have dented the ability of America’s tech champions, especially Google, to maintain their dominance. This brash nationalistic trade policy may end up backfiring badly. The game is on.

唐纳德特朗普的华为禁令可能适得其反中国电信集团一直面临着挑战谷歌的主导地位 ©彭博社在Twitter上分享（打开新窗口）在Facebook上分享（打开新窗口）在LinkedIn上分享（打开新窗口）保存保存到myFT 迈克尔雅各布德 6 HOURS AGO 打印本页 52 乍一看，最近美国的行政命令将华为中国集团列入黑名单，看起来像唐纳德特朗普经典的举动：傲慢，自信，民族主义。但仔细观察，很明显，将“美国放在第一位”最终可能意味着美国的最终结束。美国对华为的反击始于其5G基础设施业务。引用安全问题，美国齐心协力说服西方盟友将公司从5G网络中撤出 - 取得了不同程度的成功。这场斗争现在变成了一项更广泛的禁令，这使得美国公司 - 以及任何有美国利益的公司 - 几乎不可能与华为帝国的任何一个部门开展业务。其中包括华为崭露头角的消费者部门，这是全球第二大智能手机生产商。对于华为而言，它看起来像是一个身体打击。像高通这样的美国集团必须停止供应它，但拥有美国关系的英国Arm必须停止供应。华为再次成为全球最大的电信设备制造商，仅从美国获得一小部分（如果重要的话）投入。如果发现供应商更换康宁的高端手机玻璃，中国集团可以围绕禁令行事。华为美国竞争对手的任何短期利益都将被公司供应商和客户的点击以及减少创新动力所抵消。此外，这一保护主义举措将鼓励华为和其他中国团体开发自己的技术。考虑到它们已经走了多远，这可能会对美国供应商及其市场主导地位造成进一步的伤害。但是，手机等设备并不孤立。它们是生态系统的一部分，例如谷歌的Android平台和相关应用程序，包括Netflix，WhatsApp和YouTube。设备，操作系统，应用程序，服务和配件汇集在一起，以创建统一的客户体验。这些全球生态系统主要由美国公司管理，行政命令几乎禁止谷歌与美国Android开发商合作，与华为手机合作。换句话说，唐纳德特朗普总统将华为从谷歌生态系统中解放出来。最初，失去谷歌的生态系统合作伙伴可能会损害华为，甚至超过其供应链被颠覆，因为客户可能会停止使用无法提供他们所熟知和喜爱的补充的华为工具包。但在短期到中期内，我们可以预期华为将开始建立自己的竞争生态系统，同时保护其在中国和其他国家市场的地位。这个竞争对手的生态系统可能不会超过谷歌的Android，但华为在不尝试的情况下是愚蠢的。挑战很明显 - 如果有人能够克服它，那就是2019年的华为。如果四年前发生这种情况，技术差距可能太大，中国集团无法弥合。但今天的华为可能会崛起并赢得胜利 - 这将改变整个移动领域。特朗普政府不仅加强了贸易战; 它可能改变了移动技术的未来面貌。如果没有外部冲击，华为可能会有利于谷歌的生态系统。但现在这个挑战已经失败：华为和其他人一直在努力挑战谷歌的统治地位，以确保自己的生存。谷歌了解其主导地位的风险。它刚刚要求Android操作系统免于出口禁令。但这可能为时已晚。即使特朗普政府同意或取消禁令作为更广泛的贸易协议的一部分，Rubicon也已被越过，华为和其他中国公司面临的风险已经显而易见。特朗普政府采取的这些行动不仅使我们更接近“以中国为基础”和“以美国为基础”的互联网之间的世界分裂; 他们也可能削弱美国科技冠军，特别是谷歌的能力，以维持他们的统治地位。这种傲慢的民族主义贸易政策可能最终导致严重的失败。比赛开始了。

拉丁美洲抵制美国排除华为的压力

圣保罗的Andres Schipani，墨西哥城的Jude Webber和布宜诺斯艾利斯的Benedict Mander

打印本页 1

拉丁美洲正在藐视特朗普政府努力将该地区与华为联系起来，选择与北京保持密切联系而非加入美国禁止中国公司进入电信网络的运动。

外交官说，美国官员一直在敦促拉丁美洲国家复制华盛顿决定将华为从其5G网络中排除，并警告该公司可能被北京用于窥探活动。

但在左翼总统Jair Bolsonaro（美国对手唐纳德特朗普的盟友）领导的阻力下，巴西队已经领先。巴西副总统汉密尔顿•穆伦（HamiltonMourão）表示，他的政府在5月下旬与商务代表团一同访问北京时，看到了“华为的眼光”。

“华为在巴西成立并将进行更多投资，”他说，并补充说，华为代表已于5月来到他的巴西办事处，展示他们的扩张计划。

巴西，墨西哥和阿根廷 - 拉丁美洲三大经济体 - 将于今年或2020年初决定是否允许华为参与在其国家推出5G移动基础设施。

今年四月，美国商务部长威尔伯·罗斯（Wilbur Ross）毫不怀疑特朗普政府对华为在拉丁美洲的5G扩张计划的看法，让墨西哥和美国商人的观众毫无疑问。

“我们不希望中国投资墨西哥非常积极参与，特别是不参与战略项目，”罗斯先生表示，总统安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥布拉多尔的总参谋长阿方索·罗莫说。

南美一位高级外交官表示，“美国不会让华为加入压力”，并强调反华为的推动是美国国务卿迈克庞培今年访问该地区的原因之一。

但特朗普政府的努力似乎已经落空 - 至少目前如此。

智利总裁塞巴斯蒂安•皮涅拉（SebastiánPiñera）4月份在深圳会见了华为董事长梁华，并表示“欢迎华为参与5G和光纤电缆项目的智利公开招标”。

与墨西哥洛佩斯奥布拉多先生关系密切的媒体大亨里卡多萨利纳斯说：“我对华为一无所知。我认为这些美国人正在做的事情是耻辱。“

竞争情报部门咨询公司负责人埃内斯托·彼德拉斯表示，墨西哥的电信网络严重依赖华为。墨西哥由AméricaMóvil和美国巨头AT＆T主导，该公司通过收购“六年前完全是华为”的本地网络进入市场。

“墨西哥的AT＆T有中国的DNA，”Piedras先生说。

他补充说，美国禁令将推迟全球推出5G至10个月至14个月，这使得它不太可能在2023年之前抵达墨西哥。

分析师表示，华为拥有5G最好的设备，并补充说没有美国供应商能够在拉丁美洲与他们竞争。唯一可行的供应商是三星，爱立信和诺基亚，这将花费更多。

美国反对华为的运动已经与唐纳德特朗普总统与中国的贸易战联系在一起。华盛顿没有成功游说欧洲各国政府禁止华为，并威胁要限制与英国的情报共享，如果它不遵循。

但对于经济增长步履蹒跚的拉丁美洲来说，吸引中国投资和融资的必要性很强。

在北京，共产党领导的古巴外交部长布鲁诺·罗德里格斯·帕里利亚告诉中国官方新华社：“我们与华为有着传统的商业关系，古巴对中国的技术尤其是对这家公司充满信心。”

他表示，美国正在“与中国失去技术竞赛”，并采用“另一个时代典型的原始工具”来遏制其扩张。

一家在阿根廷经营的国际电信公司的一名高管表示，“华为不会被排除在外”。如果由前左翼总统克里斯蒂娜费尔南德斯基什内尔精心挑选的总统候选人赢得10月大选，那么布宜诺斯艾利斯可能会更加紧密地与北京保持一致。

巴西反对华为的禁令违背了博尔索纳先生与特朗普的广泛政治关系。但这在一定程度上反映了农业选区的影响力使他掌权，这依赖于中国作为大买家。

将中国投资者带到巴西的咨询公司Vallya的董事Larissa Wachholz表示，除非证明中国可以通过5G技术获取其他国家的数据，否则“巴西不会也不应该阻止华为参与”。

(Trump 想投降怕是晚了）

Mnuchin表示，如果贸易谈判取得进展，特朗普可能会放松华为

（路透社） - 美国财政部长史努文姆努钦周日表示，如果与中国在贸易方面取得进展，唐纳德特朗普总统可能会放松美国对华为的限制 - 但如果没有达成协议，华盛顿将维持关税以削减赤字。

“我认为总统所说的是，如果我们在贸易方面取得进展，或许他愿意在华为做出某些事情，如果他能从中国那里得到安慰并获得某些保证，”Mnuchin说。“但这些都是国家安全问题。”

为了减少美国的贸易逆差并打击所谓的不公平贸易行为，华盛顿对中国商品征收并强化了进口关税。

它还指控中国电信巨头从事间谍活动和窃取知识产权，指控华为技术有限公司（一家领先的下一代5G技术供应商）否认此事。

华盛顿已将华为列入黑名单，有效禁止美国公司与其开展业务，并向其盟友施加压力也要关闭华为，认为华为可以利用其技术对北京进行间谍活动。

Mnuchin表示，美国准备与中国达成协议，但如有必要还要维持关税。

“如果中国希望推进这项协议，我们已准备好按照我们所做的条款向前迈进。如果中国不想继续前进，那么特朗普总统非常乐意推进关税以重新平衡这种关系，“Mnuchin说。

在评论墨西哥和美国之间的移民协议时，Mnuchin说他相信墨西哥将履行其承诺，但他补充说，如果不履行承诺，特朗普“保留征收关税的权利”。

特朗普本周六在推文中称，“墨西哥会非常努力，如果他们这样做，这将是美国和墨西哥之间非常成功的协议”。

特朗普禁止华为的意外后果正在开始出现

作者：John Detrixhe

美国对华为的镇压必然会产生意想不到的后果。他们中的一些人开始浮出水面。

特朗普政府正在寻求阻止中国电信公司在美国销售其技术，以及禁止美国公司向该公司销售产品。根据英国“ 金融时报” （英国“ 金融时报”）的报道，现在谷歌禁止华为公司更新其无处不在的Android操作系统，并警告说这一限制可能成为国家安全问题。这是因为全球第二大手机制造商华为可能会迅速开发自己的Android并行版本，这可能会产生更多的软件错误并且更容易被黑客攻击。

这只是众多潜在后果中的一个，因为美国的压制行动掀起了从半导体供应到自动驾驶汽车雄心的一切。在世界两大经济体之间的贸易谈判破裂后，美国政府将长期酝酿的间谍问题列入华为的黑名单。特朗普政府已经给公司提供了90天的时间来适应新的限制。

与此同时，据报道，包括高通，英特尔和赛灵思在内的芯片制造商正停止向华为销售技术（付费墙）。陷入困境的中国公司通过储存芯片和组件以及加快替代品的开发来应对。

据路透社报道，Facebook在全球拥有超过20亿用户，将不再允许其应用程序预先安装在华为手机上。华为手机买家目前仍可以从Google Play商店下载该应用，但如果谷歌与中国公司的关系被切断，该选项将会消失。

这些行动增加了美国公司的潜在影响。美国科技企业将失去对华为的销售，禁令也可能会减缓全球新技术的实施。例如，自动驾驶汽车的推出可能会受到5G装备的推动，华为似乎是唯一能够以低成本提供可靠的5G套件的供应商。限制可能会回归谷歌和Facebook，它们依赖于他们的应用程序在世界各地广泛安装以收集数据和销售广告。然后中国可能会遭到破坏性的报复，这可能会使像苹果这样在那里开展业务的重要美国公司入围黑名单。

如果打击持续（一个重要的，如果有人希望华为限制被解除，如果达成贸易协议）并且中国电信完好无损，它可能会变得更加强大，被迫在内部开发新技术。如果美国黑名单无法扼杀华为，它可能比以前更强大，更具创新性。

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Add to myFT Latin America resists US pressure to exclude Huawei Trump administration urges leaders to ban Chinese company from telecoms networks Latin American governments are soon to decide if they will allow Huawei to participate in the rollout of 5G infrastructure in their countries against the wishes of the US © Bloomberg Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Save to myFT Andres Schipani in São Paulo, Jude Webber in Mexico City and Benedict Mander in Buenos Aires 49 MINUTES AGO Print this page1 Latin American is defying Trump administration efforts to turn the region against Huawei, choosing to stay close to Beijing rather than join a US campaign to ban the Chinese company from telecoms networks. US officials have been pressing Latin American countries to replicate Washington’s decision to exclude Huawei from its 5G networks, diplomats say, warning the company could be used by Beijing in snooping activities. But Brazil, under rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US counterpart Donald Trump, has led the resistance. Hamilton Mourão, Brazil’s deputy president, said his government saw “Huawei with good eyes” while visiting Beijing with a business delegation in late May. “Huawei is established in Brazil and will make more investments,” he said, adding that Huawei representatives had come to his Brasília office in May to present their expansion plans. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina — Latin America’s three largest economies — are due to decide this year or in early 2020 whether they will allow Huawei to participate in the rollout of 5G mobile infrastructure in their countries. In April, Wilbur Ross, US commerce secretary, left an audience of Mexican and US businessmen in no doubt what the Trump administration thought of Huawei’s 5G expansion plans in Latin America. “We don’t want very active participation of Chinese investment in Mexico, especially not in strategic projects,” said Mr Ross, according to Alfonso Romo, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s chief of staff. A senior South American diplomat said “there is a lot of pressure from the US not to let Huawei in”, stressing that the anti-Huawei push was one reason for US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s visits to the region this year. But the Trump administration’s efforts appear to have come to nothing — at least for now. Sebastián Piñera, Chile’s president, met Huawei chairman Liang Hua in Shenzhen in April and said “Huawei is welcome to participate in public tenders” in Chile for 5G and fibreoptic cable projects. Ricardo Salinas, a media mogul close to Mr López Obrador in Mexico, said: “I have nothing but good things to say about Huawei. I think it’s a disgrace what these Americans are doing to put them down.” Ernesto Piedras, head of the Competitive Intelligence Unit consultancy, said Mexico’s telecoms networks were deeply dependent on Huawei. Mexico is dominated by América Móvil and US giant AT&T, which entered the market by buying local networks that “six years ago were totally Huawei”. “AT&T in Mexico has Chinese DNA,” Mr Piedras said. The US ban would delay the worldwide rollout of 5G by 10 to 14 months, he added, making it unlikely to arrive in Mexico before 2023. Analysts say Huawei has the best equipment for 5G, adding there is no US supplier able to compete with them in Latin America. The only other viable providers are Samsung, Ericsson and Nokia, which would cost more. The US campaign against Huawei has become bound up in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. Washington has unsuccessfully lobbied European governments to ban Huawei and is threatening to limit intelligence sharing with the UK if it does not follow suit. But for Latin America, where economic growth is faltering, the imperative to attract Chinese investments and financing is strong. Recommended Huawei Technologies Co Ltd Trump to threaten curb on intel sharing with UK over Huawei In Beijing, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, foreign minister of communist-led Cuba, told China’s official Xinhua news agency: “We have traditional business relationships with Huawei, and Cuba has all the confidence in Chinese technology and in this company in particular.” He said the US was “losing the technological contest” versus China and resorting to “crude tools, typical of another era” to curb its expansion. One executive at an international telecommunications company operating in Argentina said “there is no way Huawei is going to be excluded” from the country. If the presidential candidate handpicked by former leftist president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins an October election, Buenos Aires is likely to become more closely aligned with Beijing. Brazil’s opposition to a Huawei ban runs against the grain of Mr Bolsonaro’s broader political affinity with Mr Trump. But it partly reflects the influence of the farming constituency that brought him to power, which relies on China as a big buyer. Larissa Wachholz, director at Vallya, a consultancy that brings Chinese investors to Brazil, said that unless it was proved China had access to other countries’ data via 5G technology “Brazil will not and should not, prevent Huawei from participating”.

唐纳德特朗普的华为禁令可能适得其反

Donald Trump’s Huawei ban could backfire badly

拉丁美洲抵制美国排除华为的压力

Mnuchin表示，如果贸易谈判取得进展，特朗普可能会放松华为

特朗普禁止华为的意外后果正在开始出现