Michael Jacobides

At first sight, the recent US executive order blacklisting Chinese group Huawei looks like a classic Donald Trump move: brash, assertive, nationalistic. But look closer and it is clear that putting “America first” could ultimately mean the US finishes last.

The US pushback against Huawei began with its 5G infrastructure business. Citing security concerns, the US made a concerted effort to convince western allies to drop the company from their 5G networks — with mixed success. The fight has now morphed into a broader ban that makes it near impossible for US companies — and any firm with US interests — to do business with any part of the Huawei empire. That includes Huawei’s up-and-coming consumer division, the world’s second-biggest smartphone producer.

For Huawei, it looks like a body blow. US groups such as Qualcomm must stop supplying it, but so must UK-based Arm, which has American ties. Then again, Huawei is the world’s biggest telecoms equipment manufacturer, and only draws a small, if important, part of its inputs from the US. The Chinese group could work round the ban, if it finds suppliers to replace the high-end mobile phone glass it gets from Corning.

Any short-term benefit to Huawei’s US competitors will be offset by hits to the company’s suppliers and customers as well as reduced impetus for innovation. Further out, this protectionist move will encourage Huawei and other Chinese groups to develop their own technology. Given how far they have already come, that might wind up doing further harm to US suppliers and their dominance of the market.

However, devices such as phones do not stand alone. They are part of ecosystems, such as Google’s Android platform and related apps including Netflix, WhatsApp and YouTube. Devices, operating systems, apps, services and accessories come together to create a unified customer experience.

These global ecosystems are largely managed by American companies, and the executive order all but forbids Google, along with US-based Android developers, from working with Huawei phones. In other words, President Donald Trump has banished Huawei from the Google ecosystem.

Initially, losing Google’s ecosystem partners could hurt Huawei even more than having its supply chain upended, as customers may stop using Huawei kit that can’t offer the complements they know and love. But in the short to medium term we can expect Huawei to start building its own competing ecosystem, while protecting its position in China and other national markets.

This rival ecosystem might not overtake Google’s Android, but Huawei would be foolish not to try. The challenge is clear — and if anyone can overcome it, it’s the Huawei of 2019. If this had happened four years ago, the technology gap might have been too wide for the Chinese group to bridge. But today’s Huawei might rise to the dare and win — and that would transform the entire mobile sector.

The Trump administration hasn’t just stepped up the trade war; it may have changed the future face of mobile technology. Without an external shock, Huawei could have profitably stuck with Google’s ecosystem. But now the gauntlet is down: Huawei and others have been pushed to challenge Google’s dominance to ensure their own survival.

Google understands the risk to its dominance. It has just asked for the Android operating system to be exempted from the export ban. But it may be too late. Even if the Trump administration agrees or it lifts the ban as part of a broader trade deal, the Rubicon has been crossed, and the risk to Huawei and other Chinese companies has become visible.

These actions by the Trump administration have not only pushed us closer to a world split between a “Chinese-based” and “US-based” internet; they may also have dented the ability of America’s tech champions, especially Google, to maintain their dominance. This brash nationalistic trade policy may end up backfiring badly. The game is on.

唐納德特朗普的華為禁令可能適得其反中國電信集團一直面臨着挑戰谷歌的主導地位 ©彭博社在Twitter上分享（打開新窗口）在Facebook上分享（打開新窗口）在LinkedIn上分享（打開新窗口）保存保存到myFT 邁克爾雅各布德 6 HOURS AGO 打印本頁 52 乍一看，最近美國的行政命令將華為中國集團列入黑名單，看起來像唐納德特朗普經典的舉動：傲慢，自信，民族主義。但仔細觀察，很明顯，將“美國放在第一位”最終可能意味着美國的最終結束。美國對華為的反擊始於其5G基礎設施業務。引用安全問題，美國齊心協力說服西方盟友將公司從5G網絡中撤出 - 取得了不同程度的成功。這場鬥爭現在變成了一項更廣泛的禁令，這使得美國公司 - 以及任何有美國利益的公司 - 幾乎不可能與華為帝國的任何一個部門開展業務。其中包括華為嶄露頭角的消費者部門，這是全球第二大智能手機生產商。對於華為而言，它看起來像是一個身體打擊。像高通這樣的美國集團必須停止供應它，但擁有美國關係的英國Arm必須停止供應。華為再次成為全球最大的電信設備製造商，僅從美國獲得一小部分（如果重要的話）投入。如果發現供應商更換康寧的高端手機玻璃，中國集團可以圍繞禁令行事。華為美國競爭對手的任何短期利益都將被公司供應商和客戶的點擊以及減少創新動力所抵消。此外，這一保護主義舉措將鼓勵華為和其他中國團體開發自己的技術。考慮到它們已經走了多遠，這可能會對美國供應商及其市場主導地位造成進一步的傷害。但是，手機等設備並不孤立。它們是生態系統的一部分，例如谷歌的Android平台和相關應用程序，包括Netflix，WhatsApp和YouTube。設備，操作系統，應用程序，服務和配件匯集在一起，以創建統一的客戶體驗。這些全球生態系統主要由美國公司管理，行政命令幾乎禁止谷歌與美國Android開發商合作，與華為手機合作。換句話說，唐納德特朗普總統將華為從谷歌生態系統中解放出來。最初，失去谷歌的生態系統合作夥伴可能會損害華為，甚至超過其供應鏈被顛覆，因為客戶可能會停止使用無法提供他們所熟知和喜愛的補充的華為工具包。但在短期到中期內，我們可以預期華為將開始建立自己的競爭生態系統，同時保護其在中國和其他國家市場的地位。這個競爭對手的生態系統可能不會超過谷歌的Android，但華為在不嘗試的情況下是愚蠢的。挑戰很明顯 - 如果有人能夠克服它，那就是2019年的華為。如果四年前發生這種情況，技術差距可能太大，中國集團無法彌合。但今天的華為可能會崛起並贏得勝利 - 這將改變整個移動領域。特朗普政府不僅加強了貿易戰; 它可能改變了移動技術的未來面貌。如果沒有外部衝擊，華為可能會有利於谷歌的生態系統。但現在這個挑戰已經失敗：華為和其他人一直在努力挑戰谷歌的統治地位，以確保自己的生存。谷歌了解其主導地位的風險。它剛剛要求Android操作系統免於出口禁令。但這可能為時已晚。即使特朗普政府同意或取消禁令作為更廣泛的貿易協議的一部分，Rubicon也已被越過，華為和其他中國公司面臨的風險已經顯而易見。特朗普政府採取的這些行動不僅使我們更接近“以中國為基礎”和“以美國為基礎”的互聯網之間的世界分裂; 他們也可能削弱美國科技冠軍，特別是谷歌的能力，以維持他們的統治地位。這種傲慢的民族主義貿易政策可能最終導致嚴重的失敗。比賽開始了。

拉丁美洲抵制美國排除華為的壓力

聖保羅的Andres Schipani，墨西哥城的Jude Webber和布宜諾斯艾利斯的Benedict Mander

打印本頁 1

拉丁美洲正在藐視特朗普政府努力將該地區與華為聯繫起來，選擇與北京保持密切聯繫而非加入美國禁止中國公司進入電信網絡的運動。

外交官說，美國官員一直在敦促拉丁美洲國家複製華盛頓決定將華為從其5G網絡中排除，並警告該公司可能被北京用於窺探活動。

但在左翼總統Jair Bolsonaro（美國對手唐納德特朗普的盟友）領導的阻力下，巴西隊已經領先。巴西副總統漢密爾頓•穆倫（HamiltonMourão）表示，他的政府在5月下旬與商務代表團一同訪問北京時，看到了“華為的眼光”。

“華為在巴西成立並將進行更多投資，”他說，並補充說，華為代表已於5月來到他的巴西辦事處，展示他們的擴張計劃。

巴西，墨西哥和阿根廷 - 拉丁美洲三大經濟體 - 將於今年或2020年初決定是否允許華為參與在其國家推出5G移動基礎設施。

今年四月，美國商務部長威爾伯·羅斯（Wilbur Ross）毫不懷疑特朗普政府對華為在拉丁美洲的5G擴張計劃的看法，讓墨西哥和美國商人的觀眾毫無疑問。

“我們不希望中國投資墨西哥非常積極參與，特別是不參與戰略項目，”羅斯先生表示，總統安德烈斯·曼努埃爾·洛佩斯·奧布拉多爾的總參謀長阿方索·羅莫說。

南美一位高級外交官表示，“美國不會讓華為加入壓力”，並強調反華為的推動是美國國務卿邁克龐培今年訪問該地區的原因之一。

但特朗普政府的努力似乎已經落空 - 至少目前如此。

智利總裁塞巴斯蒂安•皮涅拉（SebastiánPiñera）4月份在深圳會見了華為董事長梁華，並表示“歡迎華為參與5G和光纖電纜項目的智利公開招標”。

與墨西哥洛佩斯奧布拉多先生關係密切的媒體大亨里卡多薩利納斯說：“我對華為一無所知。我認為這些美國人正在做的事情是恥辱。“

競爭情報部門諮詢公司負責人埃內斯托·彼德拉斯表示，墨西哥的電信網絡嚴重依賴華為。墨西哥由AméricaMóvil和美國巨頭AT＆T主導，該公司通過收購“六年前完全是華為”的本地網絡進入市場。

“墨西哥的AT＆T有中國的DNA，”Piedras先生說。

他補充說，美國禁令將推遲全球推出5G至10個月至14個月，這使得它不太可能在2023年之前抵達墨西哥。

分析師表示，華為擁有5G最好的設備，並補充說沒有美國供應商能夠在拉丁美洲與他們競爭。唯一可行的供應商是三星，愛立信和諾基亞，這將花費更多。

美國反對華為的運動已經與唐納德特朗普總統與中國的貿易戰聯繫在一起。華盛頓沒有成功遊說歐洲各國政府禁止華為，並威脅要限制與英國的情報共享，如果它不遵循。

但對於經濟增長步履蹣跚的拉丁美洲來說，吸引中國投資和融資的必要性很強。

在北京，共產黨領導的古巴外交部長布魯諾·羅德里格斯·帕里利亞告訴中國官方新華社：“我們與華為有着傳統的商業關係，古巴對中國的技術尤其是對這家公司充滿信心。”

他表示，美國正在“與中國失去技術競賽”，並採用“另一個時代典型的原始工具”來遏制其擴張。

一家在阿根廷經營的國際電信公司的一名高管表示，“華為不會被排除在外”。如果由前左翼總統克里斯蒂娜費爾南德斯基什內爾精心挑選的總統候選人贏得10月大選，那麼布宜諾斯艾利斯可能會更加緊密地與北京保持一致。

巴西反對華為的禁令違背了博爾索納先生與特朗普的廣泛政治關係。但這在一定程度上反映了農業選區的影響力使他掌權，這依賴於中國作為大買家。

將中國投資者帶到巴西的諮詢公司Vallya的董事Larissa Wachholz表示，除非證明中國可以通過5G技術獲取其他國家的數據，否則“巴西不會也不應該阻止華為參與”。

(Trump 想投降怕是晚了）

Mnuchin表示，如果貿易談判取得進展，特朗普可能會放鬆華為

（路透社） - 美國財政部長史努文姆努欽周日表示，如果與中國在貿易方面取得進展，唐納德特朗普總統可能會放鬆美國對華為的限制 - 但如果沒有達成協議，華盛頓將維持關稅以削減赤字。

“我認為總統所說的是，如果我們在貿易方面取得進展，或許他願意在華為做出某些事情，如果他能從中國那裡得到安慰並獲得某些保證，”Mnuchin說。“但這些都是國家安全問題。”

為了減少美國的貿易逆差並打擊所謂的不公平貿易行為，華盛頓對中國商品徵收並強化了進口關稅。

它還指控中國電信巨頭從事間諜活動和竊取知識產權，指控華為技術有限公司（一家領先的下一代5G技術供應商）否認此事。

華盛頓已將華為列入黑名單，有效禁止美國公司與其開展業務，並向其盟友施加壓力也要關閉華為，認為華為可以利用其技術對北京進行間諜活動。

Mnuchin表示，美國準備與中國達成協議，但如有必要還要維持關稅。

“如果中國希望推進這項協議，我們已準備好按照我們所做的條款向前邁進。如果中國不想繼續前進，那麼特朗普總統非常樂意推進關稅以重新平衡這種關係，“Mnuchin說。

在評論墨西哥和美國之間的移民協議時，Mnuchin說他相信墨西哥將履行其承諾，但他補充說，如果不履行承諾，特朗普“保留徵收關稅的權利”。

特朗普本周六在推文中稱，“墨西哥會非常努力，如果他們這樣做，這將是美國和墨西哥之間非常成功的協議”。

特朗普禁止華為的意外後果正在開始出現

作者：John Detrixhe

美國對華為的鎮壓必然會產生意想不到的後果。他們中的一些人開始浮出水面。

特朗普政府正在尋求阻止中國電信公司在美國銷售其技術，以及禁止美國公司向該公司銷售產品。根據英國“ 金融時報” （英國“ 金融時報”）的報道，現在谷歌禁止華為公司更新其無處不在的Android操作系統，並警告說這一限制可能成為國家安全問題。這是因為全球第二大手機製造商華為可能會迅速開發自己的Android並行版本，這可能會產生更多的軟件錯誤並且更容易被黑客攻擊。

這只是眾多潛在後果中的一個，因為美國的壓制行動掀起了從半導體供應到自動駕駛汽車雄心的一切。在世界兩大經濟體之間的貿易談判破裂後，美國政府將長期醞釀的間諜問題列入華為的黑名單。特朗普政府已經給公司提供了90天的時間來適應新的限制。

與此同時，據報道，包括高通，英特爾和賽靈思在內的芯片製造商正停止向華為銷售技術（付費牆）。陷入困境的中國公司通過儲存芯片和組件以及加快替代品的開發來應對。

據路透社報道，Facebook在全球擁有超過20億用戶，將不再允許其應用程序預先安裝在華為手機上。華為手機買家目前仍可以從Google Play商店下載該應用，但如果谷歌與中國公司的關係被切斷，該選項將會消失。

這些行動增加了美國公司的潛在影響。美國科技企業將失去對華為的銷售，禁令也可能會減緩全球新技術的實施。例如，自動駕駛汽車的推出可能會受到5G裝備的推動，華為似乎是唯一能夠以低成本提供可靠的5G套件的供應商。限制可能會回歸谷歌和Facebook，它們依賴於他們的應用程序在世界各地廣泛安裝以收集數據和銷售廣告。然後中國可能會遭到破壞性的報復，這可能會使像蘋果這樣在那裡開展業務的重要美國公司入圍黑名單。

如果打擊持續（一個重要的，如果有人希望華為限制被解除，如果達成貿易協議）並且中國電信完好無損，它可能會變得更加強大，被迫在內部開發新技術。如果美國黑名單無法扼殺華為，它可能比以前更強大，更具創新性。

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Add to myFT Latin America resists US pressure to exclude Huawei Trump administration urges leaders to ban Chinese company from telecoms networks Latin American governments are soon to decide if they will allow Huawei to participate in the rollout of 5G infrastructure in their countries against the wishes of the US © Bloomberg Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on LinkedIn (opens new window) Save Save to myFT Andres Schipani in São Paulo, Jude Webber in Mexico City and Benedict Mander in Buenos Aires 49 MINUTES AGO Print this page1 Latin American is defying Trump administration efforts to turn the region against Huawei, choosing to stay close to Beijing rather than join a US campaign to ban the Chinese company from telecoms networks. US officials have been pressing Latin American countries to replicate Washington’s decision to exclude Huawei from its 5G networks, diplomats say, warning the company could be used by Beijing in snooping activities. But Brazil, under rightwing president Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of US counterpart Donald Trump, has led the resistance. Hamilton Mourão, Brazil’s deputy president, said his government saw “Huawei with good eyes” while visiting Beijing with a business delegation in late May. “Huawei is established in Brazil and will make more investments,” he said, adding that Huawei representatives had come to his Brasília office in May to present their expansion plans. Brazil, Mexico and Argentina — Latin America’s three largest economies — are due to decide this year or in early 2020 whether they will allow Huawei to participate in the rollout of 5G mobile infrastructure in their countries. In April, Wilbur Ross, US commerce secretary, left an audience of Mexican and US businessmen in no doubt what the Trump administration thought of Huawei’s 5G expansion plans in Latin America. “We don’t want very active participation of Chinese investment in Mexico, especially not in strategic projects,” said Mr Ross, according to Alfonso Romo, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s chief of staff. A senior South American diplomat said “there is a lot of pressure from the US not to let Huawei in”, stressing that the anti-Huawei push was one reason for US secretary of state Mike Pompeo’s visits to the region this year. But the Trump administration’s efforts appear to have come to nothing — at least for now. Sebastián Piñera, Chile’s president, met Huawei chairman Liang Hua in Shenzhen in April and said “Huawei is welcome to participate in public tenders” in Chile for 5G and fibreoptic cable projects. Ricardo Salinas, a media mogul close to Mr López Obrador in Mexico, said: “I have nothing but good things to say about Huawei. I think it’s a disgrace what these Americans are doing to put them down.” Ernesto Piedras, head of the Competitive Intelligence Unit consultancy, said Mexico’s telecoms networks were deeply dependent on Huawei. Mexico is dominated by América Móvil and US giant AT&T, which entered the market by buying local networks that “six years ago were totally Huawei”. “AT&T in Mexico has Chinese DNA,” Mr Piedras said. The US ban would delay the worldwide rollout of 5G by 10 to 14 months, he added, making it unlikely to arrive in Mexico before 2023. Analysts say Huawei has the best equipment for 5G, adding there is no US supplier able to compete with them in Latin America. The only other viable providers are Samsung, Ericsson and Nokia, which would cost more. The US campaign against Huawei has become bound up in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China. Washington has unsuccessfully lobbied European governments to ban Huawei and is threatening to limit intelligence sharing with the UK if it does not follow suit. But for Latin America, where economic growth is faltering, the imperative to attract Chinese investments and financing is strong. Recommended Huawei Technologies Co Ltd Trump to threaten curb on intel sharing with UK over Huawei In Beijing, Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, foreign minister of communist-led Cuba, told China’s official Xinhua news agency: “We have traditional business relationships with Huawei, and Cuba has all the confidence in Chinese technology and in this company in particular.” He said the US was “losing the technological contest” versus China and resorting to “crude tools, typical of another era” to curb its expansion. One executive at an international telecommunications company operating in Argentina said “there is no way Huawei is going to be excluded” from the country. If the presidential candidate handpicked by former leftist president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner wins an October election, Buenos Aires is likely to become more closely aligned with Beijing. Brazil’s opposition to a Huawei ban runs against the grain of Mr Bolsonaro’s broader political affinity with Mr Trump. But it partly reflects the influence of the farming constituency that brought him to power, which relies on China as a big buyer. Larissa Wachholz, director at Vallya, a consultancy that brings Chinese investors to Brazil, said that unless it was proved China had access to other countries’ data via 5G technology “Brazil will not and should not, prevent Huawei from participating”.

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