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今年三月份中国进出口锐减37.7%，其中出口15%，进口12.7%
China Exports Point to Weak First-Quarter Growth
Nation’s exports slid 15% in March,
imports dropped 12.7%
（公孙明按：今年三月份中国进出口锐减37.7%，其中出口15%，进口12.7%。这个惊人的数目，充分证明了所谓“世界工厂“已经失去动力。
毛主席说坏事就是好事，中国如果能够借此机会被动地反省而脱离世界工厂这个魔咒，确实是大好事，只是在此阵痛期间，再回首已是百年身，全中国人民又要被剥一层皮了！）
By Mark Magnier， The Wall Street Journal
Updated April 13, 2015 3:05 a.m. ET
BEIJING—Falling exports in March and
a sharp drop in China’s monthly trade surplus point to weak first-quarter
economic results coming this week, heaping more pressure on Beijing to ease
fiscal and monetary policy.
Many economists believe growth in the
world’s second-largest economy fell below the government’s 2015 target of about
7% during the first three months of the year. China is scheduled to release the
results on Wednesday. China’s economy grew 7.4% last year, its slowest pace in 24 years.
According to data released Monday by
the General Administration of Customs, Chinese exports fell 15% and imports
fell 12.7% last month in dollar terms as weak domestic and foreign demand
weighed heavily on Chinese factories.
The decline surprised many
economists, who expected exports to rebound after February’s Lunar New Year
holiday.
“It’s quite a sluggish number,” said
ANZ economist Hao Zhou. “This likely points to sub-7% economic growth” in the
first quarter, he added.
Beijing faces growing pressure to
pare interest rates, cut bank reserves and increase government spending
following a string of weak property, industrial production and other economic
data in recent weeks, said Mizuho economist Shen Jianguang. He said he expected
first-quarter growth to be around 6.8% or 6.9%. “But the real fundamentals,
industrial production, could be even weaker,” Mr. Shen added.
Beijing’s growing concern with waning
growth has prompted a host of targeted measures to boost the economy, ranging
from increased infrastructure spending and reductions in electricity tariffs to
two cuts in interest rates aimed at lowering the cost of borrowing
for domestic companies. While many countries would welcome a growth rate of
around 7%, China says it needs high growth to create enough jobs for its large
population. Barring a sharp slowdown, economists say, China should be able to
meet its goal of 10 million new urban jobs this year.
China’s 15% year-over-year March
decline in exports in dollar terms compares with an increase of 48.3% in
February, according to data from the customs administration. That was well
below the median 10% increase expected by 15 economists in a survey by The Wall
Street Journal.
“Domestic demand is still sluggish,”
said Kevin Lai, economist at Daiwa Capital. “Other than the U.S., the export
situation isn’t looking very strong.”
China’s exports have been hit by weak
economic momentum in the eurozone and the depreciation of major currencies
against the Chinese yuan, which undercuts Chinese competitiveness, economists
said.
“The main reason behind the surprise
drop in March exports is the yuan’s recent strength,” said HSBC economist Ma
Xiaoping. “I think while the central bank is focusing on accelerating the
opening of the capital account, it will increase the flexibility of the yuan
and reduce its interference in the market.”
A recent government survey found that
more than a third of about 3,000 exporters see a stronger currency as hurting
their business, a customs administration official told reporters Monday.
Import demand has been hard hit by
China’s slumping property market and the painful ratcheting down of debt and
overcapacity in such industries as steel and glass, which undercuts demand for
imported commodities, economists said.
The 12.7% March decline in imports
was largely in line with the poll’s median forecast and compared with a 20.5%
year on year drop in February.
China’s trade surplus narrowed
sharply in March to $3.08 billion from $60.6 billion in February, and fell well
short of the median forecast of a $43.8 billion surplus.
“There was a record high trade
surplus in the first two months of the year and now it’s more normal,” Mr. Shen
said. “Things will remain challenging for Chinese exports.”
—Liyan Qi contributed to this
article.
Write to Mark Magnier at mark.magnier@wsj.com and
William Kazer at william.kazer@wsj.com
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