陳叔涵 2025年4月5日

據說上月習近平考察貴州發表講話時流露出退休之意，引發全球中文媒體熱議，有說習近平身體不行了的，有說習近平在權鬥中失勢的，還有說習近平失去軍隊控制權的，不一而足，結論就是：習近平退休完全可能。在他們看來，習近平的皇帝是當不下去了，不是很快退下來就是在2027年中共二十一大時退下來，肯定不可能有第四個任期了。我認為，習近平退休是小概率事件，除非他突然掛了或成為沒有行為能力的植物人，否則，他是不會放棄最高權力的。為了這最高權力他可是苦心積慮、機關算盡，怎麼可能會放手呢？就好比一條狗正在津津有味地啃着骨頭，它肯中途停下來嗎？因此，說習近平退休無異於天方夜譚。

很多時政評論人士認為：習近平已經大權旁落，形勢逼他退休。他們此說的依據是：不少由習提拔的黨、政、軍高官相繼落馬以及很多重要崗位的人事變動。在我看來，不管多少由習提拔的高官落馬，也不管多少重要崗位換人，這都不能說明習近平已經大權旁落，剛好相反，這正是習近平權勢熏天的證明。因為在當今中共國，話語權依然在習近平手中，中央電視台的新聞還是把習近平擺在首位，<<人民日報>>仍然由習近平獨霸頭版頭條。中共建立政權七十多年來，有誰見過已經大權旁落的領導還能掌握話語權的？因此，衡量中共領導是否大權旁落的指標只有一個，那就是：話語權！既然習近平還牢牢地掌握着話語權，怎麼能說習近平已經大權旁落呢？既然習近平還握有最高權力，同時他又嗜權如命，那他怎麼會退休呢？！

那麼，問題來了，既然習近平還掌握着最高權力，為何先前由他提拔的高官一個又一個地落馬呢，先前一些重要的崗位都換人了呢？這就進一步證明習近平大權在握：習近平可以把官員提上馬，也可以把官員拉下馬。習近平讓誰下馬，誰就得下馬；習近平讓誰上馬，誰就能上馬。這不就正好說明習近平在隨心所欲地運用他手中的最高權力嗎？例如，當下盛傳習近平的親信軍委副主席何衛東出事了，不管是真是假，請問，何衛東是軍委副主席，誰能讓何衛東出事？唯有軍委主席習近平有權讓何衛東出事，絕非那些時政評論員所臆想的那樣，何衛東是因腐敗問題被習近平的政敵整垮。在中共國，一個官員腐敗與否，不是由中紀委說了算，而是由習近平說了算，中紀委只不過是習近平整人的工具，習近平才是使用工具的人。

習近平上台十二年，作孽十二載。因為他所做的一切都是為了維護他手中的權力而非人民的福祉，中共國當今的經濟慘狀就是習近平一手造成的。用他的話來說，就是由他親自指揮親自部署的。習近平不會退休，因為他根本就沒法退休！中共國弄到今天一塌糊塗的局面，是需要有人來背鍋的。這在歷史上有很多先例，遠的就不提了，就說中共王朝吧，毛澤東把中國禍害得奄奄一息，四人幫替他背了鍋。習近平跟毛澤東不一樣，毛澤東是開國之君，在當時老百姓心中是神一般的存在，造再大的孽也可找到替罪羊，而習近平只是守成之君，威望和才具都遠遠遜色於毛澤東，老百姓對習近平大都嗤之以鼻，誰也不會替他背這頂大黑鍋。因此，他絕對不會退下來。作為權謀高手，他深知唯有權力才能護衛他的生命，他在位一日就能苟延殘喘一日。一旦他放棄最高權力，他就是被清算的唯一對象，無論繼任者是由他提拔的還是在權力鬥爭中勝出的，都會拿習近平開刀，因為只有這樣才能贏得民心！有鑑於此，習近平只得繼續作孽自至生命最後一息！

Xi Jinping will continue his misdeeds until his dying breath!"

Chen Shuhan April 05,2025

It is said that during his inspection tour in Guizhou last month, Xi Jinping hinted at the possibility of retirement in his speech, sparking heated discussions across Chinese-language media worldwide. Some speculated that Xi's health is failing, others claimed he has lost power in political struggles, and still others suggested he no longer controls the military. In short, many concluded that Xi’s retirement is entirely possible. In their view, Xi can no longer hold onto his "emperor" status—he will either step down soon or retire at the 21st Party Congress in 2027, with a fourth term being out of the question. However, I believe Xi’s retirement is a low-probability event. Unless he suddenly dies or becomes incapacitated like a vegetable, he will not relinquish his supreme power. He has gone through great lengths and schemed meticulously to achieve this highest position—how could he possibly let it go? It's like a dog gnawing on a bone with great pleasure—would it stop halfway? Therefore, to talk about Xi Jinping retiring is nothing short of a fantasy.

Many political commentators believe that Xi Jinping has already lost much of his power and is being forced into retirement by circumstances. Their reasoning is based on the fact that many senior officials in the Party, government, and military—whom Xi himself promoted—have been taken down one after another, along with a wave of personnel changes in key positions. From my perspective, no matter how many high-ranking officials appointed by Xi have fallen, or how many important posts have changed hands, none of this proves that Xi has lost power. On the contrary, it actually demonstrates just how dominant his power still is. In today’s China under the CCP, Xi still holds the power of discourse. The news on CCTV still places Xi at the forefront, and he continues to dominate the headlines and front pages of People’s Daily. In the more than seventy years since the CCP established its regime, has anyone ever seen a leader who has truly lost power still maintain control over public discourse? Therefore, there is only one true indicator of whether a CCP leader has lost power: discourse control. As long as Xi still firmly controls the narrative, how can anyone say he has lost power? And since Xi still holds the highest authority and clings to power as if it were his lifeblood, how could he possibly retire?!

So, here comes the question: If Xi Jinping still holds supreme power, why have so many high-ranking officials he previously promoted fallen from grace? Why have so many key positions seen personnel changes? This, in fact, further proves that Xi holds power firmly in his hands: he can elevate officials as he pleases, and he can just as easily bring them down. If Xi wants someone removed, they will be removed; if he wants someone promoted, they will be promoted. Doesn’t this clearly demonstrate that Xi is exercising his supreme authority at will? For example, there are widespread rumors that Xi’s close ally, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission He Weidong, has run into trouble. Whether that’s true or not, let’s ask: He Weidong is the vice chairman of the CMC—who would have the power to bring him down? Only the chairman of the CMC, Xi Jinping himself, holds that authority. It’s definitely not, as some political commentators imagine, that He Weidong was taken down by Xi’s political rivals over corruption issues. In China under the CCP, whether an official is deemed corrupt isn’t up to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI)—it’s up to Xi Jinping. The CCDI is merely a tool used by Xi to target others; Xi is the one wielding the tool.

Xi Jinping has been in power for twelve years, and those twelve years have been marked by misrule. Everything he has done has been aimed at preserving his grip on power, not improving the welfare of the people. The current disastrous state of China’s economy is entirely Xi’s doing—or in his own words, it is something he has “personally commanded and personally overseen.” Xi will not retire—because he cannot retire. China’s current mess needs someone to take the fall, and history offers many precedents. Looking just at the Communist regime: when Mao Zedong had driven the country to the brink of collapse, the Gang of Four took the blame for him. But Xi is not Mao. Mao was the founding leader of the nation and was seen as a god-like figure by the people of that era. No matter how much damage he caused, scapegoats could be found. Xi, by contrast, is merely a successor. His prestige and ability fall far short of Mao’s, and most of the public view him with disdain. No one will be willing to take the fall for him. That’s why he absolutely won’t step down. As a master of political scheming, he knows that only power can protect his life. As long as he remains in power, he can drag things out day by day. But the moment he gives up supreme authority, he will become the number-one target for reckoning. Regardless of whether his successor is someone he personally appointed or someone who rose to power through internal struggle, they will have every incentive to go after Xi—because that is the only way to gain public support. Given all this, Xi Jinping has no choice but to continue down this destructive path—right up to his final breath.