陈叔涵 2025年4月5日

据说上月习近平考察贵州发表讲话时流露出退休之意，引发全球中文媒体热议，有说习近平身体不行了的，有说习近平在权斗中失势的，还有说习近平失去军队控制权的，不一而足，结论就是：习近平退休完全可能。在他们看来，习近平的皇帝是当不下去了，不是很快退下来就是在2027年中共二十一大时退下来，肯定不可能有第四个任期了。我认为，习近平退休是小概率事件，除非他突然挂了或成为没有行为能力的植物人，否则，他是不会放弃最高权力的。为了这最高权力他可是苦心积虑、机关算尽，怎么可能会放手呢？就好比一条狗正在津津有味地啃着骨头，它肯中途停下来吗？因此，说习近平退休无异于天方夜谭。

很多时政评论人士认为：习近平已经大权旁落，形势逼他退休。他们此说的依据是：不少由习提拔的党、政、军高官相继落马以及很多重要岗位的人事变动。在我看来，不管多少由习提拔的高官落马，也不管多少重要岗位换人，这都不能说明习近平已经大权旁落，刚好相反，这正是习近平权势熏天的证明。因为在当今中共国，话语权依然在习近平手中，中央电视台的新闻还是把习近平摆在首位，<<人民日报>>仍然由习近平独霸头版头条。中共建立政权七十多年来，有谁见过已经大权旁落的领导还能掌握话语权的？因此，衡量中共领导是否大权旁落的指标只有一个，那就是：话语权！既然习近平还牢牢地掌握着话语权，怎么能说习近平已经大权旁落呢？既然习近平还握有最高权力，同时他又嗜权如命，那他怎么会退休呢？！

那么，问题来了，既然习近平还掌握着最高权力，为何先前由他提拔的高官一个又一个地落马呢，先前一些重要的岗位都换人了呢？这就进一步证明习近平大权在握：习近平可以把官员提上马，也可以把官员拉下马。习近平让谁下马，谁就得下马；习近平让谁上马，谁就能上马。这不就正好说明习近平在随心所欲地运用他手中的最高权力吗？例如，当下盛传习近平的亲信军委副主席何卫东出事了，不管是真是假，请问，何卫东是军委副主席，谁能让何卫东出事？唯有军委主席习近平有权让何卫东出事，绝非那些时政评论员所臆想的那样，何卫东是因腐败问题被习近平的政敌整垮。在中共国，一个官员腐败与否，不是由中纪委说了算，而是由习近平说了算，中纪委只不过是习近平整人的工具，习近平才是使用工具的人。

习近平上台十二年，作孽十二载。因为他所做的一切都是为了维护他手中的权力而非人民的福祉，中共国当今的经济惨状就是习近平一手造成的。用他的话来说，就是由他亲自指挥亲自部署的。习近平不会退休，因为他根本就没法退休！中共国弄到今天一塌糊涂的局面，是需要有人来背锅的。这在历史上有很多先例，远的就不提了，就说中共王朝吧，毛泽东把中国祸害得奄奄一息，四人帮替他背了锅。习近平跟毛泽东不一样，毛泽东是开国之君，在当时老百姓心中是神一般的存在，造再大的孽也可找到替罪羊，而习近平只是守成之君，威望和才具都远远逊色于毛泽东，老百姓对习近平大都嗤之以鼻，谁也不会替他背这顶大黑锅。因此，他绝对不会退下来。作为权谋高手，他深知唯有权力才能护卫他的生命，他在位一日就能苟延残喘一日。一旦他放弃最高权力，他就是被清算的唯一对象，无论继任者是由他提拔的还是在权力斗争中胜出的，都会拿习近平开刀，因为只有这样才能赢得民心！有鉴于此，习近平只得继续作孽自至生命最后一息！

Xi Jinping will continue his misdeeds until his dying breath!"

Chen Shuhan April 05,2025

It is said that during his inspection tour in Guizhou last month, Xi Jinping hinted at the possibility of retirement in his speech, sparking heated discussions across Chinese-language media worldwide. Some speculated that Xi's health is failing, others claimed he has lost power in political struggles, and still others suggested he no longer controls the military. In short, many concluded that Xi’s retirement is entirely possible. In their view, Xi can no longer hold onto his "emperor" status—he will either step down soon or retire at the 21st Party Congress in 2027, with a fourth term being out of the question. However, I believe Xi’s retirement is a low-probability event. Unless he suddenly dies or becomes incapacitated like a vegetable, he will not relinquish his supreme power. He has gone through great lengths and schemed meticulously to achieve this highest position—how could he possibly let it go? It's like a dog gnawing on a bone with great pleasure—would it stop halfway? Therefore, to talk about Xi Jinping retiring is nothing short of a fantasy.

Many political commentators believe that Xi Jinping has already lost much of his power and is being forced into retirement by circumstances. Their reasoning is based on the fact that many senior officials in the Party, government, and military—whom Xi himself promoted—have been taken down one after another, along with a wave of personnel changes in key positions. From my perspective, no matter how many high-ranking officials appointed by Xi have fallen, or how many important posts have changed hands, none of this proves that Xi has lost power. On the contrary, it actually demonstrates just how dominant his power still is. In today’s China under the CCP, Xi still holds the power of discourse. The news on CCTV still places Xi at the forefront, and he continues to dominate the headlines and front pages of People’s Daily. In the more than seventy years since the CCP established its regime, has anyone ever seen a leader who has truly lost power still maintain control over public discourse? Therefore, there is only one true indicator of whether a CCP leader has lost power: discourse control. As long as Xi still firmly controls the narrative, how can anyone say he has lost power? And since Xi still holds the highest authority and clings to power as if it were his lifeblood, how could he possibly retire?!

So, here comes the question: If Xi Jinping still holds supreme power, why have so many high-ranking officials he previously promoted fallen from grace? Why have so many key positions seen personnel changes? This, in fact, further proves that Xi holds power firmly in his hands: he can elevate officials as he pleases, and he can just as easily bring them down. If Xi wants someone removed, they will be removed; if he wants someone promoted, they will be promoted. Doesn’t this clearly demonstrate that Xi is exercising his supreme authority at will? For example, there are widespread rumors that Xi’s close ally, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission He Weidong, has run into trouble. Whether that’s true or not, let’s ask: He Weidong is the vice chairman of the CMC—who would have the power to bring him down? Only the chairman of the CMC, Xi Jinping himself, holds that authority. It’s definitely not, as some political commentators imagine, that He Weidong was taken down by Xi’s political rivals over corruption issues. In China under the CCP, whether an official is deemed corrupt isn’t up to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI)—it’s up to Xi Jinping. The CCDI is merely a tool used by Xi to target others; Xi is the one wielding the tool.

Xi Jinping has been in power for twelve years, and those twelve years have been marked by misrule. Everything he has done has been aimed at preserving his grip on power, not improving the welfare of the people. The current disastrous state of China’s economy is entirely Xi’s doing—or in his own words, it is something he has “personally commanded and personally overseen.” Xi will not retire—because he cannot retire. China’s current mess needs someone to take the fall, and history offers many precedents. Looking just at the Communist regime: when Mao Zedong had driven the country to the brink of collapse, the Gang of Four took the blame for him. But Xi is not Mao. Mao was the founding leader of the nation and was seen as a god-like figure by the people of that era. No matter how much damage he caused, scapegoats could be found. Xi, by contrast, is merely a successor. His prestige and ability fall far short of Mao’s, and most of the public view him with disdain. No one will be willing to take the fall for him. That’s why he absolutely won’t step down. As a master of political scheming, he knows that only power can protect his life. As long as he remains in power, he can drag things out day by day. But the moment he gives up supreme authority, he will become the number-one target for reckoning. Regardless of whether his successor is someone he personally appointed or someone who rose to power through internal struggle, they will have every incentive to go after Xi—because that is the only way to gain public support. Given all this, Xi Jinping has no choice but to continue down this destructive path—right up to his final breath.