全球6500万将死于冠状病毒美去年末模拟-Pascal-万维博客-万维读者网（电脑版）

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Pascal的博客
“朝廷不是让我隐蔽吗？”“你也不看看，这是什么时候了？！”
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		全球6500万将死于冠状病毒美去年末模拟	2020-01-24 17:28:31

A coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.
The virus has been reported in at least eight other countries, including the US, where a man in Washington who recently visited China was confirmed to have the illness.
A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modeled what would happen if a deadly coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65 million people could die within 18 months.
Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, wasn't shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.

Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.

Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.

"I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus," Toner said.

The outbreak in Wuhan isn't considered a pandemic, but the virus has been reported in Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia. The US reported its first case on Tuesday: a man in his 30s living in Washington's Snohomish County, north of Seattle, who recently visited China.

So far, the virus has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.

"We don't yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don't know to what extent," Toner said. "An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that's reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting."

Toner's simulation of a hypothetical deadly coronavirus pandemic suggested that after six months, nearly every country in the world would have cases of the virus. Within 18 months, 65 million people could die.

A viral pandemic could kill 65 million people

Toner's simulation imagined a fictional virus called CAPS. The analysis, part of a collaboration with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, looked at what would happen if a pandemic originated in Brazil's pig farms. (The Wuhan virus originated in a seafood market that sold live animals.)

The virus in Toner's simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine. It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.