作者: Kris Osborn June 10, 2020/ 2020年6月10日 消息来源：The National Interest 《国家利益》 翻译：johnwallis 简评：johnwallis/小明 PR：小明 简评： 本文讲述了200万中共国军队最近在中国西北地区进行的大规模攻击演习，这引起了人们对各国目前陆战准备程度的疑问。据《全球火力》和《陆军识别》报道，中共国军队有200万现役人员和51万预备役人员，拥有VT5轻型坦克，升级版T99、T99A主战坦克；然而，美国的艾布拉姆斯坦克的改进已经完全改变了平台的作战能力，亦无迹象表明中共的最新型坦克可以超越美国的艾布拉姆斯主坦克。同时，武器研发上，研发人员继续评估下一代传感器、主动防护系统和轻质装甲复合材料的作战效能，以探索一种比升级版 “艾布拉姆斯 “重量更轻，但生存能力和杀伤力更强的新型装甲车。事实上，美国的军事能力不仅仅包含陆地方面，其联合攻击能力包括隐形空袭、航母力量投射、先进战斗机、海军武器和快速现代化的登陆部队，可以说，在任何类型的机械化战争中，美国都会处于有利地位。 况且，以大规模装甲集群为基础、依靠坦克的机动性实施纵深突破的战术根本还停留在二战水平。就算中共国未经实战验证、仅有漂亮参数的战车具备其宣传的作战能力，它所预想的战争形态已然严重脱离现代战争的要求。早在二战时期，纳粹德国就把快速装甲部队和俯冲轰炸机结合，作为“闪电战”的利剑。然而到了战争后期，当盟军的战略轰炸机主宰西欧的上空时，纳粹的地面、空中优势荡然无存。而从二战结束至今，军事理论、战争形态已经发生了革命性的变化。空天一体化、立体战争、电子对抗等战争形式和理念不断被更新，没有雄厚的制空、制海、制太空能力作为支撑，坦克、弹道导弹都无用武之地。 另外，即便在现代化的战争中，人的因素仍是至关重要的。中共国大部分将领都是些溜须拍马、腰圆肚大、纸上谈兵之徒，这是由中共国体制决定的，从士兵到将军的晋升都是腐败的。在中共国建政后，中共军队与外部基本无常规、实质的战斗经验，将领纯属口炮党，士兵具备“一流”的叠豆腐块被子的功底，一年都打不了几发子弹。试问这样的中共军队怎么跟历经千锤百炼的美国大兵比？ 中共的“假骗偷”体系注定它在一场可能的现代战争中毫无胜算。但中共的邪恶与狡诈远胜于其真刀真枪的实战能力，《笑傲江湖》中“剑术神通”风清扬说，“世界上最厉害的招数，不在武功之中，而是阴谋诡计、机关陷阱”。中共的流氓和下作是臭名昭著的。明枪易躲，暗箭难防。要对抗中共、消灭中共，仅从武力上着手是不现实的，只有从每个领域——不论军事、技术领域，还是思想、文化上抵制中共病毒，邪魔才会真正灭亡。 中共国军队能与美军比肩吗？目前，答案是 “不能”
以下是各国如何准备一场大型陆战。 200万中共国军队最近在中国西北地区的进行了大规模的攻击演习，测试了战争场景，并演练了一次大型战役中的战斗技能，这引起了人们对各国目前对陆战的准备程度的疑问。 据《中国人民网络报》6月9日报道，模拟战斗行动包括日间和夜间 “快速突击、实弹打击试验、战术训练和武器测试”。 演习包括陆攻、伞兵和涉及装甲车、大炮、机械化步兵战术和侦察任务的全面战争场景。 虽然五角大楼的观察者们不可能认为这些演习对中共国来说是令人惊讶或不寻常的，但这种机械化攻击演习，包括一些中共国最新的现代武器和装甲车，很可能会引起人们对这个共产主义国家所带来的陆战威胁的一些担忧。 
一份来自全球火力（GlobalFirepower）2020年评估估计，规模非常庞大的中共国军队由多达200万现役人员和51万预备役人员组成，是美国陆军常备现役部队的2-3倍以上。评估还称，中共国拥有3.3万辆装甲车和3500辆坦克。此外，中共国目前还运营着一些新兴的高科技武器平台，如VT5型15轻型坦克。VT5型坦克是中共国在去年阅兵式上首次公开亮相的，已经研发了很多年。这款重约35吨的装甲车，粗略一看，在某些方面可与美军现在正在研发的机动防护火力车（MPF）相媲美。 《陆军识别》（Army Recognition）杂志上的详细评估中描述道，中共国轻型坦克采用105毫米线膛炮发射多种弹药，并配有 “热套筒和烟雾引射器”，射程为3000米。文章解释说，这些子弹包括穿甲弹、高爆反坦克弹和高爆弹，有点类似于美国坦克和陆军计划中的MPF。另外，和MPF一样，该车的设计也是一种机动性更强、远征性更强、能够穿越崎岖地形的轻型坦克。这将使它能够跟上快速移动的步兵部队，并协同高科技混成装甲反应部队作战。最后，就像美军的通用遥控武器系统（Common Remotely Operated Weapons System）使用装甲下瞄准和传感器技术来保障部队在攻击演习中的安全一样，中共国的VT5使用了 “遥控武器站”。 除了VT5，北京人民解放军的升级版T99主战坦克也被认为具有威胁性，因为根据2011年的一篇《陆军识别》文章，升级版T99A变型车包括热成像瞄准镜、弹道计算机和天气测量传感器”。有趣的是，其技术成熟度可能与美军的艾布拉姆斯坦克（Abrams Tank）有些类似。与20世纪80年代作为五大战车之一首次出现时相比，艾布拉姆斯坦克在大多数方面完全不同。T99最早出现在20世纪90年代末，然而20世纪80年代对艾布拉姆斯的改进已经完全改变了其平台的作战能力；最新的M1A2 v4变型车在设计上采用了新一代远程高保真前视红外传感器、自动装炮器和新型多用途炮弹，以增加攻击的灵活性等。多年来，艾布拉姆斯的装甲也经历了重大改进和应用，同时通过辅助动力单元（Auxiliary Power Unit）使更多的机载动力成为可能。艾布拉姆斯升级的成功，以及它的作战性能，启发了陆军对未来的展望，认为很可能会长期需要像艾布拉姆斯坦克这样的 “重装甲战车”。总之，虽然T99的升级可能会引起一些人的关注，但似乎并没有迹象表明该坦克可以超越艾布拉姆斯。  庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年阅兵中的中国坦克车组由于传统平台只能在一定程度上进行升级，这个概念将最终引入一个新的平台。因此，陆军希望同时设计出升级版的 “艾布拉姆斯”，与下一代战车并肩作战。同时，武器研发人员继续评估下一代传感器、主动防护系统和轻质装甲复合材料的作战效能，以探索一种比升级版 “艾布拉姆斯 “重量更轻，但生存能力和杀伤力更强的新型装甲车的前景。商议、原型设计和技术实验正在进行中，但许多人认为，除非在复合装甲和其他技术领域有实质性的新技术突破，否则重型装甲车很可能会继续存在。  庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年阅兵的全女子方队
虽然很多人可能对中共国VT5或升级版M99A的具体技术配置知之甚少，但众所周知，中共国正在快速研发先进的人工智能计算机系统以及新一代装甲和武器。简言之，许多观察家建议，考虑到中共国的地形、先进的武器和其陆军的规模，在中国土地上进行实际的陆战对美军来说可能不是最好的方案。然而，美国的联合攻击能力包括隐形空袭、航母力量投射、先进战斗机、海军武器和快速现代化的陆军可能会迅速改变战争模式——在任何类型的大规模机械化战争中美国都处于有利位置。 克里斯-奥斯本（Kris Osborn）是《国家利益》（National Interest）的新任国防编辑。奥斯本曾在五角大楼担任陆军助理部长办公室–采购、后勤与技术部的高级别专家。奥斯本还曾在国家电视网络担任主播和空中军事专家。他曾作为客座军事专家出现在福克斯新闻、MSNBC、军事频道和历史频道。他还拥有哥伦比亚大学比较文学硕士学位。 原文链接 A 2020 assessment from GlobalFirepower estimates that the very large Chinese Army is comprised of as many as 2 million active-duty personnel and 510,000 in reserves, more than two-or-three times larger than the U.S. Army’s standing active force. The assessment also says the Chinese have 33,000 armored vehicles and 3,500 tanks. In addition, China is known to now operate several emerging, high-tech weapons platforms such as its VT5 Type 15 light tank. The VT5, first revealed publicly by China during a military parade last year, has been in development for many years. The roughly 35-ton armored vehicle is, at a cursory glance, comparable in some respects to the U.S. Army’s now-in-development Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF) vehicle. The Chinese light tank, as described in a detailed assessment in Army Recognition magazine, fires a wide range of ammunition from a 105mm rifle gun with a “thermal sleeve and fume extractor” with a range of 3,000 meters. The rounds, the article explains, include Armor Piercing, High-Explosive Anti-Tank and High Explosive rounds, somewhat analogous to U.S. tanks and Army plans for the MPF. Also, much like the MPF, the vehicle is engineered as a much more mobile, expeditionary, light-weight tank able to traverse rugged terrain. This will allow it to keep up with fast-moving infantry units, and incorporate high-tech reactive and composite armor. Finally, much like the U.S. Army’s Common Remotely Operated Weapons System, which used under-armor targeting and sensor technology to safeguard troops during attack maneuvers, the Chinese VT5 uses a “remotely operated weapon station.” Alongside the VT5, Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) upgraded T99 Main Battle Tank is considered threatening as well, given that the upgraded T99A variant includes a thermal imaging scope, ballistic computer and weather measurement sensors” according to an Army Recognition essay from 2011. Interestingly, its technological maturation may be somewhat analogous to the U.S. Army’s Abrams Tank. The Abrams is, in most respects, an entirely different vehicle than when it first emerged as part of the Big 5 in the 1980s. The T99 first appeared more recently in the late 1990s, however improvements to the 1980s’ era Abrams have completely changed the combat capabilities of the platform; the newest M1A2 v4 variant is engineered with a new generation of long-range, high-fidelity Forward Looking Infrared Sensors, automated gun loader and new multi-purpose rounds for additional attack flexibility, among other things. There have also been major armor improvements and applications over the years, along with more on-board power made possible by an Auxiliary Power Unit. The success of Abrams upgrades, and its combat performance has inspired Army futures to believe that there will likely be a long-term requirement for “heavy armor” such as the Abrams tank. In short, while upgrades to the T99 may be a cause for some concern, there do not seem to be indications that the tank can outmatch the Abrams. The concept would be to ultimately introduce a new platform, recognizing that legacy platforms can only be upgraded to a certain extent. Therefore, the Army wants to simultaneously engineer an upgraded Abrams to fight alongside a Next-Generation Combat Vehicle. At the same time, weapons developers continue to assess the combat efficacy of next-generation sensors, active protection systems and light-weight armor composites to explore the prospect of a new armored vehicle that is lighter weight, yet more survivable and lethal than an upgraded Abrams. Deliberations, prototyping and technological experimentation are ongoing, but many maintain that some kind of heavy armored vehicle will likely remain, unless there are substantial new technological breakthroughs in the realm of composite armor and other technologies. While much is likely not known about the particular technical configuration of a Chinese VT5 or upgraded M99A, the Chinese are known to be fast-developing advanced AI computer systems as well as a new generation of both armor and weapons. In short, many observers advise that an actual land war on Chinese soil might not present the best scenario for U.S. forces, given Chinese terrain, advanced weapons and sheer size of their land force. However, Joint U.S attack capabilities include stealth air attack, aircraft carrier power projection, advanced fighters, Naval weapons and a fast-modernizing Army may be quickly changing this equation—favoring the U.S. in any type of major mechanized warfare scenario. Kris Osborn is the new Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University. |
