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香港-反党反共反华反国家反政府的前哨 2017-05-20 08:07:46



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWnODa8P2xA&t=9s


Hong Kong: 10 things Xi Jinping might be thinking

   BBC China editor    28 September 2014

  •  

  • Tensions are rising on the streets of Hong Kong. Back in Beijing, what might China's leader be thinking about the scenes on the streets?

  • From the HK protests



1) 'I brought this on myself'

Beijing gave Hong Kong democrats not even a fig leaf of cover over the rules for nominating election candidates. Some warned that there would be trouble, but Xi Jinping clearly decided facing down protests now was preferable to risking the emergence of a local leader with real legitimacy. Today is the inevitable consequence of last month's announcement from the Chinese parliament about restrictions on universal suffrage, but it is also a direct political challenge to Beijing - and therefore a defining test for China's promise on one country, two systems.

2) 'I have to win'

Protesters near the government headquarters, 28 SeptemberImage copyrightAFPImage captionChina's leaders will not want to give in to the protests

Two years since coming to power at the head of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping has amassed unrivalled personal power and made it clear that it's he who makes all the decisions that matter. His anti-corruption campaign has made him powerful internal enemies, and they are biding their time and waiting for him to make a false move. So what happens in Hong Kong is about more than Hong Kong. The demonstrators want Beijing to reverse the rules on elections but Xi Jinping will not want to back down, nor can he afford to.

3) 'Idealistic students our Achilles heel again'

The middle-aged academics who lead the Occupy Central movement are easier for Beijing to predict and pre-empt. The real threat is the university students who started their class boycott last Monday saying they wanted to stand up and be counted, even if Beijing remained deaf to their demands.

Xi Jinping in Beijing on 26 SeptemberImage copyrightREUTERSImage captionXi Jinping believes in strong leadership to tackle China's ills

Through its uncompromising stance on electoral reform, China has distilled an opposition movement with a clear sense of purpose - no small feat from a constituency normally focussed on their books and career prospects. By the weekend, the students were still making their voices heard, despite pepper spray, kettling and the detention of their leaders. At which point their elders in the Occupy movement felt they had to muster their own masks, goggles and biscuits and jump on board.

4) 'The tail will not wag the dragon'

As of Sunday afternoon there is a news blackout on the Hong Kong demonstrations in the rest of China. Beijing does not want its citizens getting ideas. There are 7.2 million people in Hong Kong and there are 1.3 billion on the mainland. Xi Jinping needs to show both groups that he is in charge of the script.

On the mainland, an overtly political demonstration would have been broken up within minutes. Hong Kong is different by virtue of the one country two systems formula, which guarantees it autonomy and freedom of speech. But a colour revolution is one of Beijing's worst nightmares and images of idealistic young Chinese citizens with placards and yellow headbands present the Chinese government with a "damned if I do, damned if I don't" dilemma.

Put pressure on the Hong Kong police to act tough and thereby risk provoking more citizens to come out in support of the students? Or play it low key and risk emboldening the more cautious democrats to conclude that it's safe to join in after all?

5) 'Find me the key to Hong Kong hearts and minds'

Police officers hold their ground surrounded by protesters, 28 SeptemberImage copyrightAFPImage captionThe security forces have a tough role to play to keep the situation from spilling out of control

It's difficult to know whether to cajole, threaten or charm at this point. But the key constituency is the public. Beijing will try to persuade Hong Kong's citizens to stay home by painting the protesters as dangerous hotheads and warning that the economy will suffer. But if Beijing is to win this battle for hearts and minds, it will have to hold its nerve and let the demonstrations play out with light-hand policing. Something it finds hard.

6) How many police cells do they have in Hong Kong anyway?

About 500 I believe - but Xi Jinping will know better than I. This demonstration is unauthorised and therefore illegal. The Hong Kong police could try to arrest everyone. But once the cells are full, there's nowhere obvious to put them. So this demonstration has a tipping point below which exhaustion, pepper spray and the threat of jail may drive the protesters home, but above which safety in numbers and the sight of fresh joiners may generate their own feedback loop and harden defiance.

7) 'How dare they fling Deng Xiaoping in my face?!'

The demonstrators have laid claim to the legacy of the Chinese Communist patriarch, who died just before Hong Kong's return to China in 1997 but who negotiated the handover with the British 30 years ago. A strange choice of patron saint given that it was Deng Xiaoping who ordered troops to quell the student democracy protests in Beijing in 1989.

People disperse after police fired tear gas, 28 SeptemberImage copyrightAFPImage captionThere is a media blackout in mainland China over the Hong Kong protests

But Hong Kong's democrats point out that it was Deng Xiaoping who came up with the "one country, two systems" formula which guarantees Hong Kong's way of life for 50 years. By that stage, they say, he believed China would be more liberal and the ideological gap would have narrowed. If he did believe that, he was wrong. Xi Jinping's China is moving in the other direction, towards ever firmer one-party control. And if Deng Xiaoping was looking down now, I'm not confident he'd be cheering on the demonstrators.

8) 'Let's blame the foreigners'

In the weeks running up to Hong Kong's protests, China's representatives have increasingly claimed that the democrats are being whipped up by foreigners who wish to damage Hong Kong's stability and prosperity and to use the territory as a bridgehead to subvert the mainland.

Over the weekend, pro-Beijing newspapers in Hong Kong published allegations that 17-year-old student leader Joshua Wong had links with the American government. But the US and UK governments have tried to keep out of the argument, and it's hard to see how subverting the Chinese government would be in their interests anyway. The real problem for Beijing is foreign ideas rather than foreign governments.

9) 'I didn't get to where I am today by backing down. I won't start now.'

The Chinese president is reported to have said that the reason the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991 was that no-one "had the balls to stand up for it". Since coming to power two years ago, it's become increasingly clear that he sees himself in the patriarch mould and believes robust leadership is the answer to China's ills. Hong Kong listen up.

10) It's shaping up to be a lousy birthday

This weekend a fresh new portrait of Chairman Mao was hung on Tiananmen Gate in preparation for China's National Day. 1 October is the 65th anniversary of China's communist revolution, a moment when Chairman Mao declared: "The Chinese people have stood up" and the crowd cheered for real.

Sixty-five years later, Xi Jinping leads a very different party and country. Rich, yes. Powerful yes. But on its 65th birthday, the People's Republic of China has no unifying message beyond xenophobic nationalism. Xi Jinping urgently needs to define his "China Dream" in a way that inspires his fellow citizens, whether in the mainland or in Hong Kong.

  香港局势:习近平可能在想的十件事

BBC 中国总编辑    2014年 9月 28日

    这是外部链接,浏览器将打开另一个窗口

香港28/09/2014图片版权AP

香港街头气氛紧张。在北京的中国领导人对这番景象有何想法呢?

1“这是我自找的”

今天的局面,是中国上个月宣布香港特首选举没有公民提名不可避免的后果,但也是对北京直接的政治挑战,因此成为对中国一国两制承诺的决定性考验。

2 “我必须赢”

执政两年以来,习近平集结起无人可比的个人权力,他明确表示,必须由他作出一切重大决定。习近平反腐给他在国内树立起强大的敌人,他们正在等着习近平出错一招。所以,香港的事影响不仅仅是香港。示威者要求北京收回既定的普选规定,但是,习近平不愿意让步、也让不起步。

3“学生又成了我们的阿喀琉斯之踵”

那些领导“占中”的中年知识分子,北京很容易预见、预防,真正的威胁是上周一开始罢课的大学生。中国在香港选举改革方面立场之坚定,给了反对派运动一个明确的目标。到了周末,尽管有辣椒粉喷雾、尽管领袖被抓,学生仍在继续发声。到了这个时刻,占中运动上了年纪的领导人也只能带上口罩、眼镜,拿着饼干去上阵。

4 “尾巴岂能摇动龙”

在大陆,政治性鲜明的示威立刻就会被冲散,但是香港不同。不过,颜色革命是北京最坏的噩梦。理想主义的中国年轻人举着标语牌、头上扎着黄布条。这番景色让中国政府进退两难。

给香港警察施压、要求他们手腕更强,危险是可能激发更多市民上街支持学生;低调处理,危险是更小心的民主派可能也会更大胆。

5 给我赢得香港民心、民意的钥匙

香港28/09-2014图片版权REUTERS

北京将把示威者描写成头脑发热、危险的一群人、会破坏香港经济,希望以此说服香港市民呆在家里。但是,如果北京希望赢得香港的民心、民意,必须保持镇定,让警察“轻手”治安,让示威任其自然发展。这一点中国感觉很难。

6 香港警察到底有多少牢房?

据我所知大约是500。不过,习近平比我心里更有数。示威未经批准,因此是非法的。香港警察可以尝试把所有的人抓起来。但是一旦牢房满了,就没有别的地方可关人了。所以,这场示威有一个分界点,低于这个点,辣椒粉、威胁坐牢可能会让示威者回家;但是高于这个点,人多势众,再加上新人加盟,示威者的决心可能更坚定。

7 “你怎么敢把邓小平摔在我脸上?”

香港民主派指出,邓小平提出一国两制,保证香港生活方式50年不变。他们说,邓小平相信,到了那一天,中国也更自由了,理想鸿沟缩小了。如果他真是那么想的,他可真是错了。习近平的中国正在朝着另一个方向前进,朝着更严格的一党控制前进。如果邓小平泉下有知,我不敢肯定,他会给示威者加油。

8 “让我们来指责外国人”

过去几个星期,中国的代表们多次指责,香港民主派受了那些希望破坏香港稳定和繁荣、用香港作为颠覆大陆桥头堡的外国人的煽动。近两天,亲北京的报纸宣称,学生领袖黄之锋和美国政府有关系。但是,美国和英国政府一直不愿意插手表态。再说了,很难看出颠覆中国政府符合他们的利益。北京面临的真正问题是外国思想、而不是外国政府。

9 “我能有今天靠的可不是让步。现在我也不会开始。”

据说,习近平谈到苏联1991年解体时说过“没人有胆儿站出来”。执政两年,越来越明显,习近平把自己看作大家长,他认为,强大的领导人才是解决中国问题的关键。香港,听着点。

10 这个生日不好过

新中国成立65年,习近平领导的是一个不同的政党、不同的国家。(中国更)富有、强大,没错。但是,65岁生日之际,除了排外的民族主义,中国没有统一的信号。习近平迫切需要以能够激励国人的方式定义他的“中国梦”,不管是大陆人还是香港人。


电灯一出现,煤油灯消失了; 

打火机出现,火柴消失了; 

计算器出现,算盘消失了; 

CD出现,磁带消失了; 

DVD出现,录像带消失了;

手机出现,BP传呼机消失了; 

数码相机出现,胶卷相机消失了;

叶利钦总统出现,苏联帝国消失了;

罗马尼亚救国阵线出现,齐奥塞斯库总统伉俪人间蒸发了;

大韩民国出现,大金王朝 —— 却一续就是祖传三代耀眼英豪;

电子商务、直销的出现,传统生意萎缩了… 

智能手机、4G出现,回家不上电脑了... 

微信的出现,短信没人发了! 

阿里巴巴支付宝全国普及,现金流通消失在路上;

虚拟现实穿戴配件全民普及,原始没落的智能手机消失了;

智能机器人大规模出现,百分之八十体力工种消失了;

2000后一代出现中央政治局常委名单,1950后蒸发在路上;

N次虚拟雄雌体感互换媾和Polyamory出现,Monogamy婚姻消失了;

生物芯片人脑自由结合,传统意义学校消失了;

2029奇点、2045到来,人类心念意识,却从此永远不会消失。


社会一直在变,你不主动改变,终究会被世界改变。 


不同媒體拍攝下的2016旺角騷亂

     天下白癡無奇不有


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