As China pushes to become a blue-water power, nuclear-powered submarines are critically important to Beijing’s plan. Historically the Chinese Navy’s (PLAN) nuclear-powered submarine fleet has been constrained by its limited construction capacity. There is only one shipyard in the country up to the task. But that yard has been undergoing a massive enlargement. And now, recent satellite imagery suggests an additional capacity expansion.

随着中国逐渐成为一个蓝海大国，核动力潜艇对北京的计划至关重要。从历史上看，中国海军的核动力潜艇舰队一直受制于其有限的建造能力。全国只有一个造船厂可以完成这项任务。但是那个院子一直在扩大。而现在，最近的卫星图像显示出了额外的容量扩展。

预计中国的核动力潜艇舰队将在未来几年变得更大。最新进展表明，中国可以以更高的速度抽出潜艇。

中国未来十年将建造多少核潜艇是一个热门话题。海军情报局（ONI）最近预测，到2030年，中国的潜艇舰队将增加六艘核动力攻击潜艇。将他们的估计 更高。似乎清楚的是，核潜艇的数量将增加。

对商业卫星图像的分析揭示了葫芦岛渤海造船厂新建造大厅的工作。该建筑看起来与2015年在那里建造的建筑基本相同。人们普遍认为这是用于建造新一代核潜艇。

估计新大厅足够大，可以同时建造两艘潜艇。当添加到最近建造的另一个大厅时，这将允许四艘船同时进入棚屋。站点的另一端还有一个较旧的建筑大厅，如果仍在活动中，则可以添加另一个。所以一次要四五个船。

核潜艇包括弹道导弹潜艇（SSBN）和攻击潜艇（SSN）。所有核潜艇都是在渤海造船厂建造的，因此其能力将是舰队总实力的主要因素。

在华盛顿，中国的海军发展并非没有被忽视。作为回应，美国海军将不得不进行调整。国防部长马克·埃斯佩（Mark Esper）概述了拟议的“ 2045年战斗部队”，他说美国必须每年尽快开始建造三艘弗吉尼亚级潜艇。这将建立一支“更大，能力更强的潜艇部队”。拟议的部队将包括70-80攻击型潜水艇，被描述为“未来大国冲突中最具生存力的打击平台”。

渤海可能会建造三种新型潜艇。最简单的是Type-09IIIB（也称为Type-093B）。这是对当前的09IIIA型“商II”级潜艇的迭代改进。预期的主要改进是在垂直发射管中包括了巡航导弹。这些将使其携带更多的巡航导弹，提高其战略打击能力。YJ-18巡航导弹通常类似于俄罗斯的卡利布家族导弹。中国已经从一些潜艇上运营了卡利布。

比Type-09III系列更先进的是下一代Type-09V Tang类（又名-095）。预计这将是Type-09IIIB的一切，而且更隐秘。

第三种预计类型是下一代弹道导弹潜艇（SSBN）。Type-09VI（Type-096）将紧随当前一代的Type-09IV Jin级（Type-094）。预计它们将增加六架09IV型而不是取代它们，从而导致中国的SSBN机队净增加。在2020年中国军力报告向国会预计到2030年增长到八艘。

在这一阶段，我们仍在学习渤海造船厂扩建的新细节。我们还没有看到任何潜艇从新馆中撤出。并且最新的棚屋可能有其他用途。但有一点收获是，中国正在改变其潜艇建造能力。葫芦岛的工作将消除以前限制其核海军的物理限制。

China’s nuclear-powered submarine fleet was already expected to get much larger in the coming years. This latest development suggests that China could pump out submarines at an even greater rate.

Just how many nuclear submarines China will build over the next ten years is a hot topic. The Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) recently forecast China’s submarine fleet to grow by six nuclear-powered attack submarines by 2030. Other observers, such as retired Capt. James Fanell who was Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, place their estimates even higher. What seems clear is that the number of nuclear submarines will increase.

Analysis of commercial satellite imagery reveals work on a new construction hall at the Bohai Shipyard at Huludao. The building appears to be essentially identical to the one built there in 2015. That is widely believed to be for the construction of a new generation of nuclear submarines.

The new hall is estimated to be large enough to allow construction of two submarines simultaneously. When added to the other hall recently constructed, that would allow four boats to be in the sheds at once. And there is another much older construction hall at the other end of the site which, if still active, could add another. So four or five boats at once.

The nuclear submarines include both ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack submarines (SSN). All nuclear submarines are built at the Bohai shipyard, so its capacity will be a major factor in the total fleet strength.

China’s naval growth has not gone unnoticed in Washington. In response, the U.S. Navy will have to adjust. Outlining the proposed Battle Force 2045, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that the U.S. must begin building three Virginia Class submarines per year as soon as possible. This would build a “larger and more capable submarine force”. The proposed force will include 70-80 attack submarines, described as “the most survival strike platform in a future great powers conflict”.

There are three new classes of submarine which might be built at Bohai. The most straightforward is the Type-09IIIB (also written Type-093B). This is an iterative improvement on the current Type-09IIIA Shang-II Class submarine. The main improvement expected is the inclusion of cruise missiles in vertical launch tubes. These will allow it to carry an increased load of cruise missiles, improving its strategic strike capability. The YJ-18 cruise missiles are generally analogous to the Russian Kalibr family of missiles. China already operates Kalibr from some of its submarines.

More advanced than the Type-09III family is the next-generation Type-09V Tang Class (aka Type -095). This is expected to be everything the Type-09IIIB is, and also stealthier.

The third projected type is a next-generation ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). the Type-09VI (Type-096) will follow the current generation Type-09IV Jin Class (Type-094). They are expected to augment the six Type-09IV instead of replacing them, leading to a net increase in China’s SSBN fleet. The 2020 China Military Power Report to Congress projected an increase to eight SSBNs by 2030.

At this stage we are still learning new details of the Bohai shipyard expansion. We have yet to see any submarines roll out of the new halls. And it is possible that the newest shed may be intended for some other purpose. But the takeaway is that China is transforming its submarine construction capabilities. The work at Huludao will remove the physical constraint which previously limited their nuclear navy.