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窃取你毕生的积蓄:华尔街——一群缺乏道德良知的赌徒 2014-11-15 12:02:01



窃取你毕生的积蓄:华尔街 ——

一群缺乏道德良知的赌徒

来源: 华尔街日报  
热度51票   【共0条评论】【我要评论时间:2013年5月28日

Paul B. Farrell

华尔街没有道德良知。没有公众价值。什么都没有。永远不会改变。为什么?因为华尔街人士只有一个目标:为自己赚钱。

怎么赚呢?华尔街的财富是从美国9500万大众投资者那里偷来的。没错,他们偷你的钱、揩你的油、连诓带骗、敲骨吸髓,利用了十年前看似能给投资者一个公平竞争舞台的神经系统科学。而如今,情况变得更糟糕了。

话说得有点过?一点也不。先锋集团(Vanguard)创始人杰克•博格尔(Jack Bogle)几十年来一直把华尔街比作拉斯维加斯。他认为华尔街就是一个大赌场,在那里,一周七天每天24小时,有一百万名“赌台管理者”全天候操纵着赌台,从人们的回报中拿走三分之一的抽头。

你不可能赢。那些人通过与操劳终日的美国普通大众对赌而将数百万美元收入囊中,为自己赚得财富。没错,这场游戏的结局从一开始就已经注定。这些人毫无道义可言。华尔街永远占上方。永远如此。

我们应该对华尔街宽容一些?绝不。他们是骗子,窃取你毕生的积蓄,压榨你、剥削你、欺骗你。诺贝尔经济学奖获得者丹尼尔•卡内曼(Daniel Kahneman)在他的神经经济学与脑科学经典著作《思考,快与慢》(Thinking, Fast and Slow)中也做过类似的比喻:“历时50年的研究调查”证实,基金经理们的选股技巧“更像是掷骰子而非打扑克牌”。大多数人的业绩表现都弱于大盘。少有的一些胜出也往往只是昙花一现。

更糟糕的是,华尔街上那些从事脑力科学研究的人们──所有那些神经经济学家、定量分析和行为金融学专家──都认为自己做出的是“合理且有充分依据的猜测”。然而,卡内曼说,他们“并不比盲目的瞎猜更准确。几乎所有那些选股投资的人都是如此,不管他们自己是否清楚这一点……而大多数人对此并不清楚”。

明白了吗?华尔街人士甚至并不知道他们没能战胜市场。他们在否认现实、欺骗自己,也在欺骗你。

脑科学助长了华尔街的虚妄痴迷,谋杀了那里的道德良知。

上百万的华尔街人士痴迷于为自己赚钱,以至被蒙蔽了双眼,丢掉了他们的基本道德判断。他们在对现实的否认之中陷得如此之深,能虚妄至此──即便在自己未能战胜市场的时候也自以为取得了辉煌的战绩,他们大脑阴暗的深处一定埋下了谎言的种子。

正因为如此,他们必须去操纵数据,向外界隐瞒事实,没完没了地发布公关稿,来向9500万名将自己辛辛苦苦挣得的养老钱交给那些操纵赌台的人任由他们去冒险(并赚走其中的三分之一)的美国投资者说谎。

伙计们,行为科学并不复杂。DNA控制下的华尔街大脑很简单,所关注的就是:市场涨,市场跌。他们的DNA喜欢这样的变化。他们也知道如何利用市场的涨跌为自己赚钱。是的,赌场是靠三分之一的抽头来赚钱的……无论市场在涨还是在跌。华尔街永远是赢家。他们从美国普通大众的荷包里揩出三分之一,就这样将数百万美元敛入自己的囊中。问问博格尔你就知道了。

不过你早就知道这些了是不是?错。你已经忘记了。你的脑子里装了太多的东西。华尔街知道你的弱点,他们会趁虚而入。没错,如今所有这些“聪明的技术”都不过是给投资者一个假象,让你们以为自己比以前聪明了。

你错了。华尔街向我们说谎,把我们变成史上最笨的投资者。你甚至都忘记了自己正在被欺骗。博格尔和卡内曼说得没错:华尔街正在偷走你三分之一的财产。

华尔街这一长达十年的脑科学“革命”实际上在为投资者最糟糕的噩梦推波助澜,这里充斥着未兑现的承诺、谎言和背叛。这一“关于非理性的新科学”是一场连环骗局、一种掩饰、一场假象。自2002年以来,华尔街这些新的神经科学工具通过以下六种方式辜负了这个国家,带来了道德方面可怕的后果:

1. 华尔街利用脑科学进一步控制投资者

早在卡内曼获得诺贝尔经济学奖的2002年,我们寄希望于出现一个更为公正的市场环境。而今情况却变得更糟。卡内曼揭穿了华尔街讲述了几个世纪的“理性投资者”的谎言。这样的谎言给我们以希望,希望投资者可以改变,希望脑科学可以让投资者获得新的工具、新的技术、学会新的行为方式,而华尔街甚至会提供帮助。

现实恰恰相反。赌场的拥有者和那些利益均沾者是神经科学最新进展的“最初适应者”,诸如高频交易算法和用以营销推广的投资者分析之类的工具便是一例。而且,从事神经科学研究的专家们被华尔街银行、美国大企业、政客等等高薪聘来为自己工作,帮助他们操纵投资者、消费者、储户、选民和纳税人。

2. 脑科学研究者让投资者对华尔街保持一种可预测的非理性态度

卡内曼证明投资者总是非理性的。不过要注意,他还证明,投资者的大脑也总是非理性的。总是如此。因此华尔街能够用他们高科技的神经经济学数据、策略和算法来控制我们非理性的大脑。

正如芝加哥大学(University of Chicago)教授理查德•泰勒(Richard Thaler)在他的著作《行为金融学发展II》(Advances in Behavioral Finance II)中所写的那样:华尔街“需要那些非理性、信息不足到可怜的程度、且有各种奇怪偏好的投资者”。

为什么?华尔街是一部赚钱机器,开足马力为华尔街人士赚取着上千亿美元的手续费、佣金、奖金和期权。他们在赌局中总是先你一步,监视你的所作所为,用各种算法跟踪你、操纵你,确保你的头脑永远处于非理性状态,让你永远无法战胜市场。

3. 脑科学研究者永远无法使卡内曼在2002年所提出的愿景成为现实

当卡内曼这位心理学家获得诺贝尔经济学奖时,这其中暗含着一种希望,即投资者、纳税人和选民只需遵循这门新兴的脑科学所给出的建议,他们便可变得富有起来,因为行为经济学家让人们相信,这门新学科将让你“不那么非理性”,能够控制自己的行为,成为一名成功的投资者。

明白了吗?没错,脑科学本应该能够让所有投资者得到适当的工具,帮助他们变得“不那么非理性”,变成更成功的投资者……但这样一来,会损害华尔街的利益。

抱歉,这样的事可绝对不能发生。永远不行。神经经济学是建立在一个错误的前提之上:那些“非理性的投资者”能够进行自我教育,让自己变得“不那么非理性”。绝不可能,人类的大脑现在是──而且永远将是──非理性的,与生俱来就是如此,不可能有所改变。没有人做得到。

具有讽刺意味的是,我们对自己非理性的头脑了解得越多,我们(在华尔街那些神经学专家的帮助下)越容易欺骗自己,让自己相信我们能够自我控制,做出理智的行为。我们是做不到的。

别忘了,我们88%的行为是由潜意识控制的,潜意识这东西我们掌控不了,但定量研究专家们可以用他们的算法对之加以控制。因此他们可以操纵你,让你做出非理性的决定。很惊人是不是:你的大脑的确是你最大的敌人。

4. 脑科学研究者误导投资者,只会让超级富豪们变得更为富有

几年前,美联储(Fed)前主席艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在一次国会听证会上承认,他的资本主义观念给美国造成了挫败:“我做出了一个错误的假设,我以为那些为自身利益负责的机构,特别是银行等机构,其本身的性质决定了他们拥有最强的能力,能够保护自己的股东和他们的资产。”不过这里面存在一个巨大的“模型上的缺陷……这一模型界定了这个世界是如何运作的”。然而时至今日,一切都依然照旧。

格林斯潘面对国会议员时承认说:“包括我本人在内,我们中间那些曾指望放贷机构能够出于自我利益的考虑而保护股东权益的人,都处于一种惊疑的状态。”缺乏约束的市场“横行了数十年,”然后“整个理论体系却坍塌了”。

资本主义失败了,因为这其中缺乏道德准绳,美国货币政策长久以来的掌门人承认他犯下了错误。不幸的是,今天的局面更加糟糕了。

5. 脑科学研究者是带有政治偏见的党派雇佣兵

按照《彭博商业周刊》(Bloomberg BusinessWeek)的说法:所有经济学家,包括神经经济学家,都是政治动物,他们明码标价贩售自己的观点:“均衡学派主要倾向于共和党,而主张干预的一派似乎总与民主党派站在一条战线上,这些都不是什么新闻。”

简而言之,所有的经济学家都是雇佣兵,只要有人出钱,他们可以“证实”任何理论。这样的现实促使《黑天鹅》(Black Swan)一书的作者纳西姆•尼古拉斯•塔勒布(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)做出这样的预期,2008年的崩盘还会再度重演,除非我们“构建起一个无需依赖那些笨蛋经济学家们所做出预期的社会”。我们是做不到的。

6. 脑科学著作所提供的自助式流行心理学解决办法根本毫无用处

不过,投资者还是不断地问:他们所出版的一些书不是可以帮助投资者变得“不那么非理性”吗?没错,神经科学的承诺全都在他们的那些书里。而且这些书都是行业之翘楚所写。但是别被这些书名误导了:《盲点:为什么聪明人也犯傻》(Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things)、《聪明人为什么干傻事》(Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions)、《摇摆:难以抗拒的非理性诱惑》(Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior)、《醉汉晃悠悠:随机性如何决定我们的生活》(Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives)、《生命的逻辑:非理性世界的理性经济学》(The Logic of Life: Rational Economics in an Irrational World)、《助推:事关健康、财富与快乐的最佳选择》(Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness)、还有《可预见的非理性:影响决策的隐藏力量》(Predictably Irrational: Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions)。

不幸的是,从来没有哪本书可以教会投资者如何让他们的头脑变得“不那么非理性”。这是不可能的,因为华尔街的脑科学研究者永远都比这种幻象提早行动一步……总能发明出新技术、新算法和市场营销工具,将美国9500万“可预见的非理性”投资者圈在圈套里。

因此你不可能有所改变。只有华尔街能够变……但是他们不愿意这么做。他们没有道德良知。你永远不要指望华尔街会放弃他们从别人身上赚钱为自己谋利的瘾头……至少在下一次市场大崩盘──一次比1929年、2000年和2008年的市场大跌加在一起还要严重的超级大崩盘──到来之前都不可能。

所以忘掉让自己的头脑变得“不那么非理性”这件事吧。正如泰勒所说,华尔街“需要那些非理性、信息不足到可怜的程度……的投资者”,而这个人就是你。

(Paul B. Farrell是MarketWatch的专栏供稿人。)

Wall Street’s gambler brain 

lacks moral conscience

Commentary: 6 reasons science will not make you a better investor

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Wall Street has no moral conscience. No public values. Zero. Will never change. Why? Wall Street insiders have one goal: get personally rich.

How? Wall Street gets rich by stealing money from America’s 95 million investors. Yes, they steal, skim, scam, siphon off your money, using the neurosciences that a decade ago promised to level the playing field for investors. But today it’s worse.

Too harsh? No. Vanguard’s Jack Bogle has been comparing Wall Street to Vegas for decades. He sees gambling casinos with a million “croupiers” manipulating Wall Street’s gaming tables 24/7, skimming a third of your returns off the top.

You can’t win. They get richer pocketing millions by betting against average Americans who work all day. Yes, the games are fixed. They have zero morals. The house always wins. Always.

And we should go easy on Wall Street? No, they are crooks, stealing your life savings, skimming, siphoning, scamming you. In his classic on neuroeconomics and brain science, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” Nobel economist Daniel Kahneman uses similar gambling imagery: “50 years of research” proves the stock-picking skills of fund managers are “more like rolling dice than like playing poker.” Most underperform. The few winners rarely repeat.

Worse, Wall Street brain scientists — all the neuroeconomists, quants and behavioral-finance experts — all believe they’re “making sensible, educated guesses.” But they “are not more accurate than blind guesses,” says Kahneman. “This is true for nearly all stock pickers, whether they know it or not ... and most do not.”

Get it? Wall Street insiders don’t even know they are not beating the market. They are in denial, lying to themselves ... and to you.

Brain science feeds Wall Street’s addiction, killing its moral conscience

Wall Street’s million insiders are so blinded by their addiction to getting richer they’ve lost their moral compass. They’re so deep in denial, so convinced they’re beating the market even when they’re not, that they must project the lies hidden deep in their brain’s dark shadows.

So they must manipulate data, hiding the truth from the outer world, lying in an endless barrage of PR material to the 95 million investors who are risking (and losing a third of) their hard-earned retirement money to the croupiers running the casinos.

Shutterstock.com

Folks, behavioral science is not complicated. And the DNA guiding Wall Street’s brain is simple: Markets go up. Markets go down. Their DNA loves the action. And they know how to get rich in markets, up and down. Yes, the casino makes money skimming a third off the top ... on the way up, and on the way down. And the house always wins. They pocket millions skimming a third off average Americans. Just ask Bogle.

But you already know all of this, right? Wrong. You forgot. Your brain’s on overload. Wall Street knows you’re vulnerable, takes advantage of you. Yes, all of today’s “smart technology” is just giving investors an illusion they’re smarter.

Wrong. Wall Street’s lying to us, transforming us into the dumbest investors in history. You even forget you’re being scammed, that Bogle and Kahneman are right: Wall Street is stealing a third of your money.

Wall Street’s decade-long brain-science “revolution” really has accelerated the investor’s worst nightmare, with broken promises, deceit and betrayal. This “new science of irrationality” is a combo scam/snow job/cover-up. Since 2002, Wall Street’s new neuroscience tools have failed America in six ways, with dire moral consequences:

1. Wall Street uses brain science to gain even more control of investors

Back in 2002 when Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics we had hopes for a level playing field. It’s worse today. Kahneman exposed Wall Street’s centuries-long myth of the “rational investor.” Gave us hope investors could change, hope the brain sciences would give investors new tools, new technologies, teach new behaviors, that Wall Street might even help.

Commentary: 6 reasons science will not make you a better investor

Just the opposite. Casinos and their cohorts were the “first adapters” of neuroscience advances like high-frequency trading algorithms and investor profiling in marketing. Plus neuroscientists got paid big bucks to come work for Wall Street banks, Corporate America, for politicians ... to manipulate investors, consumers, savers, voters and taxpayers.

2. Brain scientists keep investors predictably irrational for Wall Street

Kahneman proved investors have always been irrational. But note, he also proved investors brains will always be irrational. Always. So Wall Street can control our irrational brains using their high-tech neuroeconomic data, strategies and algorithms.

As University of Chicago Prof. Richard Thaler writes in “Advances in Behavioral Finance II”: Wall Street “needs investors who are irrational, woefully uninformed, endowed with strange preferences.”

Why? Wall Street’s a money machine generating hundreds of billions in fees, commissions, bonuses, options for insiders. Their casinos will always be one step ahead of you, monitoring your action, mapping, manipulating your behavior with algorithms that guarantee you can never beat the market with your perpetually irrational brain.

3. Brain scientists will never deliver on Kahneman’s promise in 2002

When Kahneman, a psychologist, won the Nobel Prize in economics, there was an implied promise that if investors, taxpayers, voters simply followed the advice of the new brain sciences, they would prosper because behavioral economists promised this new science would make you “less irrational,” in control, and a successful investor.

Get it? Yes, brain science would give all investors the right tools to become “less irrational,” and more successful investors ... but that would obviously hurt Wall Street’s bottom line.

Sorry, but that will never happen. Never. Neuroeconomics is based on a false premise: That “irrational investors” can teach themselves to become “less irrational.” No way, the human brain is — and always will be — irrational, genetically “irrational,” and incapable of reprogramming itself. No can do.

And ironically, the more we learn about our irrational brains, the more we’re just kidding ourselves (with the help of the casino’s neuroscientists) into believing we’re in control, acting rationally. We’re not.

Remember, 88% of our behavior is driven by the subconscious, stuff we don’t grasp but quants control with their algorithms. So they can manipulate you into making irrational decisions. Amazing isn’t it: Your brain really is your worst enemy.

4. Brain scientists mislead investors, only help the super-rich get richer

In congressional testimony a few years ago, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted that his capitalist ideology had failed America: “I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such as that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity.” But there was a huge “flaw in the model ... that defines how the world works.” Except nothing’s change.

Greenspan admitted: “Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief,” he told Congress. Unregulated markets “held sway for decades,” then “the whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed.”

Capitalism failed because it lost its moral compass, and there was America’s long-term monetary head confessing his guilt. Unfortunately, it’s worse today.

5. Brain scientists are partisan mercenaries with political biases

Bloomberg BusinessWeek put it this way: All economists, including neuroeconomists, are political animals whose opinions are up for sale: “No surprise, the equilibrium school mainly leans Republican, and the interventionist school seems to be crawling with Democrats.”

In short, all economists are mercenaries for hire who can “prove” either ideology, prompting “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb to predict that the 2008 crash will happen again unless we “build a society that doesn’t depend on forecasts by idiotic economists.” We didn’t.

6. Brain-science books are useless self-help pop-psychology solutions

But investors keep asking: Aren’t there some of their books that will help investors become “less irrational?” Well, the promise of neuroscience is imbedded in all their books. And they’re by the best-of-the-best. But don’t be misled by the titles: “Blind Spots: Why Smart People Do Dumb Things”; “Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions”; “Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior”; “Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives”; “The Logic of Life: Rational Economics in an Irrational World”; “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness”; or “Predictably Irrational: Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions.”

Unfortunately, no book can ever teach investors how to make their brains “less irrational.” It’s impossible, because Wall Street’s brain scientists will always be way ahead of that illusion ... constantly inventing new technologies, algorithms and marketing tools that’ll run circles around America’s 95 million “predictably irrational” investors.

So you can’t change. Only Wall Street can change ... but won’t. They have no moral conscience. You should never expect Wall Street to give up its addiction to getting rich off others ... at least till after the coming collapse, a market megacrash bigger than 1929, 2000 and 2008 combined.

So forget about making your brain “less irrational.” As Thaler put it, Wall Street “needs investors who are irrational, woefully uninformed” ... and that’s you.

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· 来人呐!把反党反社反毛三反分子
· 贱呐.着急忙慌给爹上供.俄罗免签
· 洛杉矶50-64岁依然热爱疫苗列位
· 上海人63岁移民加拿大维多利亚市
· 誓为哈马斯张目特派员挚爱的穆斯
· 我.也是哈马斯义士最亲爱的战友
· 中国共产党倒台的5种最可能路径.
· 没有化疗放疗手术.7名癌患服用伊
· 谁建议体老做增强核磁共振来着.5
· 你常去ALDI购物吗.这位女士说.所
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