作者︰ 西岸  留言時間︰2015-12-17 10:56:44

核訛詐只可能是大國對小國，而不可能是反之，小國擁有核武的目的是自保，看看以色列就知道了，最終是在齋月戰爭快要亡國的情況下通過美國警告埃及說要使用原子彈（當時以色列在西奈的坦克軍團已經被全殲），迫使埃及停止進攻。

這東西與冷兵器時代出現槍支是一回事，屬于equalizer的概念，哪怕是婦女兒童要是有了槍，也能對付羅馬軍團，但你不能指望婦女兒童去戰勝羅馬軍團。

這也是為什麼超級大國都提倡消滅核武的緣故，因為沒有了核武，小國就沒有了能與大國軍事對壘的可能。

這就是類似朝鮮這種國家擁有核武的悖論，因為這東西的目的是威懾，而不是使用，一旦使用，就是亡國下場。類似艾森豪威爾當年說過的，核導彈只有在發射架上最有威力，一旦發射了就沒用了。

當時的美國是針對軍力更強大的甦聯，所以有這個說法。

所以對于中國來講，朝鮮沒有核武當然好，但有了也不是什麼大不了的事情，畢竟中國並不想吞並朝鮮，也就不至于逼著朝鮮使用核武。而核戰如果發生在朝鮮，只要有50公里的距離就是安全的，切爾諾貝利核事故的影響是遠大于一個核彈的，其影響距離也不過就是30公里。

因此什麼東北大片土地荒蕪八百年的說法是沒有科學根據的。看看廣島長崎荒蕪了多少年？

西岸君费心费时说古论今，逐项驳斥他人的论点，顺着其思路一眼望去，好唬人哈。这一次来一个倒叙，从后往前细看一遍。

“東北大片土地荒蕪八百年”的前半句条件状语从句是“宁边核泄漏”，前者导致后者的逻辑原产地，是上一篇叙述切尔诺贝利核电站爆炸事故一系列数字之后的结论，“ 據專家估計，完全消除這場浩劫的影響最少需要800年！”2011年4月25日英国《卫报》Robin McKie 对此给出的数字是：

-- Scientists say that radiation will affect the Chernobyl 

area for 48,000 years although it will be safe enough for 

humans to begin repopulating the area long before then -

- in about 600 years.

            ——  Chernobyl – a poisoned landscape by Robin McKie   25.04.2011

—— 科学家们说辐射对切尔诺贝利地区的影响将持续4.8万年之

久，尽管人们在此很早之前就可以开始在该地区居住——大约600

年后。

“ 切爾諾貝利核事故的影響是遠大于一個核彈的，其

影響距離也不過就是30公里。”    —— 西岸

受到影响的30公里距离，不过为区区2,827平方公里。下面文中提

及污染区域——15,000平方英里，即38,850平方公里，半径为

111.2公里，分别是西岸同志断言的13.74和3.71倍，是谁在扯？

1986年4月26日星期六凌晨1时23分47秒，由切尔诺贝利核电站4号原子炉

熔毁而漏出的辐射尘飘过俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和乌克兰，也飘过欧洲的部份

地区，例如：土耳其、希腊、摩尔多瓦、罗马尼亚、立陶宛、芬兰、丹

麦、挪威、瑞典、奥地利、匈牙利、捷克、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、波

兰、瑞士、德国、意大利、爱尔兰、法国（包含科西嘉岛）和英国。在最

早发生意外的时候，有人认为核泄漏是来自瑞典而不是苏联，1986年4月

27日，瑞典福斯马克核电厂工作人员发现异常的辐射粒子粘在他们的衣服

上，该电厂距离切尔诺贝利大约1100公里。根据瑞典的检查，发现该辐射

物并不是来自本地的核能电厂，他们怀疑是苏联核电厂出了的问题。当时

瑞典曾透过外交管道向苏联询问，但未获证实。

上述24个国家受到影响，其中：因为辐射尘的关系，意大利规定部份

农作物禁止人们食用，例如蘑菇。类似意大利采取的规定措施，属于大惊

小怪，吃饱了撑得难受？！

         Affects Will Last 300 Years

The 200 tons of hardened nuclear fuel and debris remains so radioactive that even today scientists cannot approach it. Some radioactive elements in nuclear fuel decay quickly; however, cesium has a half-life of 30 years, and strontium has a half-life of 29 years. According to scientific estimates, it takes 10 to 13 half-lives before economic activity and life can return to a contaminated area. 

This means that the total area contaminated by the 

Chernobyl disaster — 15,000 square miles — will be 

affected for the next 300 years.

—— Chernobyl Before and After the Worst Nuclear Disaster in History  More than 25 years after the nuclear disaster, the word Chernobyl still incites fear and concern

Radiation will stay in the Chernobyl area for the next 

48,000 years but humans may begin repopulating the area 

in the next 600 years or so. The experts predict that by 

than the most dangerous levels of radiation will have 

disappeared or been sufficiently diluted into the air, soil, 

and water.

为什么切尔诺贝利核电站几十年都没有敢重建，而小日

本的广岛长崎中了原子弹后，很快就重建好了？难道广

岛长崎没有核辐射吗？鬼子不怕辐射吗？他们究竟是怎

么处理得啊？

没有任何可比性。核武器的主要杀伤机理根本就不是核辐射，放

射性物质本来就不多，大部分在核爆炸中被消耗，不过是少量核

辐射残留，核电站的放射性武器就很大，切尔诺贝利更是核反应

堆大爆炸成了碎片，8吨多放射性物质抛射到高空，造成的放射

性污染远远超过任何核武器。

这次事故所产生的放射性尘埃，比日本广岛原子弹爆

炸造成的辐射强400倍。

                     —— 《人民日报》人民网

  http://world.people.com.cn/GB/1030/4329611.html

为什么广岛现在成了大城市，而切尔诺贝利现在是无

人区呀！原子弹爆炸的影响力还不如核泄露 ？

                     2013-09-17 15:21 提问者采纳

1、当量问题

广岛的核武器是第一代核武器，无论当量还是装药量都非常少。无法与现代核武器相比。

投放在广岛的原子弹当量为1.7万吨，自重4吨左右。装药量仅6千克左右。

而切尔诺贝利光是泄露的核燃料就有8吨。

2、地理因素制约

广岛是沿海城市，又是在半岛型的地区。八月份的东南季风把空气中的辐射吹入大海中了。所以残留的少。

而切尔诺贝利发生在4月份，刮东南风，泄露的物质与尘埃全飘到东欧与北欧了。并且切尔诺贝利是内陆，污染受地形制约，无法扩散。

3、沾染方式不同

广岛是“核爆炸”，产生大量的热带动尘埃上升到平流层（即蘑菇云），平流层的特点就是有个相当平稳的气流，将放射性粉尘吹走。

切尔诺贝利是“核泄漏”，放射性物质流入土壤中，直接污染。 

4、夸大的问题

很多人看视频中，往往被原子弹瞬间杀伤力所震撼，所以也把沾染的核辐射想象得非常可怕。其实核爆炸后放射性粉尘是慢慢落地的，本身第一代原子弹装药量不多，威力不大，残留非常少。

视频中广岛遭受核袭击并不是实时拍摄的，而是电影拍摄。当时没人想到会遭受核袭击，即使有人在拍摄，核闪光也会迅速烧坏胶卷。我们所看到的都是“电影”而不是“纪录片”。实际上当时那枚核弹并不像我们想象中威力那么大。残留也没那么大。

5、心理意识问题

广岛是原子弹第一次出现在世人面前，几乎没人知道它的残留危害。所以住起来心安理得，也陆陆续续病死了十几万人。实际上辐射残留危害性是慢性长期的，并不是直接致死，就像抽烟也会慢性致死，可抽烟的人照样活蹦乱跳。中国试爆第一颗原子弹时也让解放军步兵带着墨镜冲锋，也没见他们有什么事。

而切尔诺贝利是苏联人已经承受了冷战对核打击的恐惧，所以一发生事故全跑光了。

实际上切尔诺贝利核电站在事故后仍然继续运行了14年，并不是你想象中完全的无人区。只不过我们更多的去关心了受害者，欧美媒体也更多宣扬受害者的惨状以抹黑苏联。

   Why can Hiroshima be inhabited 

                     when Chernobyl cannot?

While they work on the same principles, the detonation of an atomic bomb and the meltdown of a nuclear plant are two very different processes.

An atomic bomb is based on the idea of releasing as much energy from a runaway nuclear fission reaction as possible in the shortest amount of time. The idea being to create as much devastating damage as possible immediately so as to nullify enemy forces or intimidate the opposing side into surrender. Both effectively ensuring the conflict ends quickly. Thus, it would be important that the area bombed does not remain uninhabitable long after the two sides make peace (Ok, that's my own speculation, but I think it's a nice ideal to work with).

A nuclear reactor is based on the idea of producing low amounts of power using a controlled and sustained nuclear fission reaction. The point being that it does not release all of the energy at once and slower reaction processes are used to ensure maximum lifetime of the nuclear fuel.

Moving beyond the ideas behind each, the radioactive isotopes created in an atomic blast are relatively short-lived due to the nature of the blast and the fact that they are normally detonated above the ground to increase destructive power of the concussive wave. Most radioactive materials from an atomic blast have a maximum half-life of 50 years.

However, in the Chernobyl meltdown, most of the actual exploding was due to containment failure and explosions from steam build-up. Chunks of fuel rods and irradiated graphite rods remained intact. Furthermore, the reaction has, both initially and over its life, produced a far higher amount of radioactive materials. This is partly due to the nature of the reaction, the existence of intact fuel to this date, and that the explosion happened at ground level. A fission explosion at ground level creates more radioactive isotopes due to neutron activation in soil. Furthermore, the half-lives of the isotopes made in the Chernobyl accident (because of the nature of the process) are considerably longer. It is estimated that the area will not be habitable for humans for another 20 000 years (Edit: to prevent further debate I rechecked this number. That is the time before the area within the cement sarcophagus - the exact location of the blast - becomes safe. The surrounding area varies between 20 years and several hundred due to uneven contamination).

Long story short, an atomic bomb is, like other bombs, designed to achieve the most destructive force possible over a short amount of time. The reaction process that accomplishes this ends up creating short-lived radioactive particles, which means the initial radiation burst is extremely high but falls off rapidly. Whereas a nuclear reactor is designed to utilize the full extent of fission in producing power from a slow, sustained reaction process. This reaction results in the creation of nuclear waste materials that are relatively long-lived, which means that the initial radiation burst from a meltdown may be much lower than that of a bomb, but it lasts much longer.

In the global perspective: an atomic bomb may be hazardous to the health of those nearby, but a meltdown spreads radiation across the planet for years. At this point, everyone on Earth has averaged an extra 21 days of background radiation exposure per person due to Chernobyl. This is one of the reasons Chernobyl was a level 7 nuclear event.

All of this contribute to why even though Hiroshima had an atomic bomb detonate, it is Chernobyl (and Fukushima too I'll wager) that remains uninhabitable.

   广岛/长崎核爆与切尔诺贝利核泄漏数据比较

<h3 style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px 1px 15px; padding-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 10px; padding-left: 37px; list-style-type: none; font-size: 14.784px; color: rgb(0, 51, 102); line-height: 17.7408px; border: 1px solid rgb(170, 170, 170); border-radius: 4px; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; background-image: url(" lnka14cu5hdoyy2tsgcaheb0l_6tfe35vaxfpci97ntp6agdauqjgn7ucvgy-9pbkqm3bcsnkgomgoq="s0-d-e1-ft#http://../../common/img/subttl_bg.gif");" background-position:="" background-repeat:="">Comparison of Damage among Hiroshima/Nagasaki, Chernobyl, and Semipalatinsk

1.Hiroshima/Nagasaki

Radiation dose in a zone 2 kilometers from the hypocenter of the atomic bomb was the largest. Also, those who entered the city of Hiroshima or Nagasaki soon after the atomic bomb detonation and people in the black rain areas were exposed to radiation. Table 1 shows dose assessment using the dosimetry system 2002 (DS02). Radiation included gamma rays as well as neutrons. This table shows radiation dose released at the moment of the atomic bomb detonation. In addition, some people were exposed to radiation from black rain containing nuclear fission products ("ashes of death"), and others to radiation induced by neutrons absorbed by the soil upon entering these cities soon after the atomic bomb detonation. However, radiation doses from black rain or by early entry into the cities have not been calculated in detail. The number of victims is estimated to be 280,000.
 
Table 1. Radiation doses using DS02

2.Chernobyl
In the Chernobyl accident, subsequent to the completion of nuclear fission, radiation was released from resultant fission products in the reactor; therefore, atomic bomb-type radiation which is released at the time of nuclear fission was not included. An estimated 3-4 exabecquerel (exa=10¹⁸) was released. Some say that the Chernobyl accident released as much as 300 times the lethal radioactive fallout of the Hiroshima bomb. Radiation had been released for 10 days and scattered in different directions as the wind shifted. Fallout in the form of dust or rain was scattered on earth, and people were exposed to radiation. Cecium-137, strontium-90, iodine-131, and plutonium are the major radiation source for the contamination. In addition to 135,000 residents within a 30-km radius of the nuclear power plant, 280,000 people living in the highly contaminated area were evacuated. The victims are divided into the following four groups: (1) plant operators and fire fighters at the time of the accident, (2) workers involved in the recovery and cleanup after the accident (liquidators), (3) people evacuated from the 30km zone immediately after the accident, and (4) residents in highly radioactive contaminated zone. According to the report of the former Soviet Union, about 300 people were hospitalized immediately after the accident, and about 240 people were diagnosed as having acute radiation injury. Of them, 28 people died of radiation injury. (With one missing person at the accident site, one person who died from burns on the day of the accident, and one person who died of a different disease at a later date, a total of 31 people were said to be killed by the accident.) Estimates of the number of exposed individuals vary; some reported 1,600,000, and other reported 9,000,000. These estimates can vary significantly depending on the scale and condition of exposure.

3.Semipalatinsk

At the Semipalatinsk Test Site, a total of 456 nuclear tests, including 111 atmospheric tests, were conducted for a period of 40 years from 1949. Radiation exposure in Semipalatinsk is mainly due to atmospheric tests-from radioactive clouds containing lethal fallout that resulted from nuclear explosions. A mushroom cloud that resulted from a nuclear explosion, after having attained a certain height, traveled horizontally. Under a certain meteorological condition, a cloud, as narrow as 2 kilometers in width, traveled a few hundred kilometers. Inhabitants were exposed to radiation from dusts falling out of a radioactive cloud or radioactive materials in the cloud. Unlike Hiroshima or Nagasaki, gamma rays and neutrons at the time of nuclear fission were not included. Residents in Dolon Village, who are said to have been exposed to high dose of radiation, may have been exposed to over 1Gy. Radiation contamination was observed extensively around the test site, resulting in radiation exposure of over one million inhabitants. Although the entire residents of some villages were evacuated, evacuation in Semipalatinsk was not as large-scale as that in Chernobyl.

”模擬實驗的結果顯示，如果寧邊用于研究的8兆瓦（熱功率）

核反應堆和用于試驗的5兆瓦（電功率）核反應堆在咿D時被空

襲和破壞，人們受放射線輻射的最大範圍可達400~1400公里。

寧邊核設施周圍半徑10~50公里內的人將在2個月內死亡80~

100%，而且在30~80公里內，只有20%的人才生存。“

码下上面这一段话的作者，可是中共中央党校国际战略研究所

教授、博士生导师，国务院特殊津贴享受者，1964年7月至1968

年2月在朝鲜金日成综合大学留学的张琏瑰同志。组织上的人

撰文，你也敢不屑一看？！

按照中央党校张教授提供的上述数据，以北京—— 宁边两地之间

800公里的距离，北京市2013年流动802万、不流动2115万、2015

年共计超过3000万总人口，有一天，可以稳稳坐享豢养金家父子

孙三代王朝六十多年、亲密友邦金正恩同志慷慨回报的特供。

“所以對于中國來講，朝鮮沒有核武當然好，但有了

也不是什麼大不了的事情，畢竟中國並不想吞並朝

鮮，也就不至于逼著朝鮮使用核武。”—— 西岸

中央党校教授、博导张琏瑰同志继续在文中写道，2012年4月13日香港

鳳凰電視台晚10時《總編輯時間》欄目里，總編輯呂寧思曾念出了朝鮮

前領導人金正日同志的一段語錄，並打出了字幕︰

“如果我們失敗了，我一定要炸掉地球，和美帝國主義同歸于

盡。一個沒有朝鮮的地球還有什麼好留的呢?”

　　2013年3月30日朝鮮政府和政黨團體發表特別聲明，稱“苦苦等待的殊死決戰的最後時刻終于到來”，“在朝鮮半島不和不戰的狀態結束了”，朝鮮軍民即將奮起進行“正義的祖國統一大戰”。在這份嚴厲的聲明中寫進了這樣一句話︰“沒有先軍朝鮮和偉大領袖金正恩的星球是不會存在的。” 許多人對這句話沒有看懂，其實這句話是在復述上面所引用的朝鮮領導人的語錄。擁有核武器並把炸毀地球定為政府意志，著實讓世界吃驚。

不久前的博文中说过，“ 顛倒黑白，政府安排。請細看中共中

央宣傳部唆使鳳凰電視台網站怎樣造謠惑眾、編造瞎話兒、生生

插進英文原文從未提及、極大縮水（十分之一？）的饋贈荷兰马

克思列宁主义党总书记彼得森同志活動經費總金額30萬美元，怎

樣將主要接待人物毛澤東、周恩來、鄧小平三位精明領袖降格扭

曲成四人幫 (借用一个英文短语来说，就是 play down 轻描淡

写；故意缩小...的重要性；贬低），一句标题，两个瞎话︰

  外國特務扮左翼騙四人幫30萬美元計劃代號“愚型兒”

黄板黑字，墨迹未干。明明是在说朝鲜同志金正恩将军犯贱挑

事，自取其辱，自取灭亡，临死前要拉上个垫背、同归于尽

的。正如牡丹峰御用美女后宫乐团一首神曲的歌词中唱得那样：

《没有他会死》 （歌词）

他亲密的情谊

在心间流淌

睡着醒着

呼吸间温暖的心

我们信任他

像天一样高的德

我们都跟随他生活啊

没有他我们活不了

金正恩同志

没有他，活不了，我们活不了

我们的命运

金正恩同志

没有他的话我们活不了

怎么上了西岸君的trajectory，竟然扭曲成了“中国并不想

吞并朝鮮，也就不至于逼着朝鲜使用核武。”这，哪儿跟哪儿

唉？西岸君对朝廷智囊团要员张导的重要指示有点儿意见？