再看度老的点评，很有道理。前后两篇贯穿一条主线，实在看不上杨洁篪王沪宁这一类的上海小刺喽，太文太烂太面瓜，又有点儿像姚文元那样玩儿笔杆子的一介书生，哪里能跟手握新军重兵的武夫袁世凯相比，充其量也就是一个中美两国外加文贵三方之间传话的messenger。

换成文贵并没有明说的视角看呢，正是杨这种三方都认可的传话身份，使得杨可以做到100多年前袁做到的同样结果 ------ 确保势力庞大的朝廷放弃抗争和平退位。

有句话说，改革开放，最重要的是对美国改革开放。而每临重大历史关头，中方也是首先跟美方勾兑摆平。79年攻打越南之前，邓赴美会见卡特时是这样；198964之后，杨洁篪与老布什勾兑成功时，也是这样。

眼下，又到了全球疫情日益扩散恶化、令中方难以为继的重大历史关头。

首先要澄清的是，上杆子主动找另一方和谈的当然不是美方，而是杨代表的江泽民大佬一方。江给杨提出的保障估计是，你利用你的人脉资历去跟美方勾兑摆平，什么都可以应承下来，党可以废掉，国名国体新疆西藏香港台湾自治联邦制都可以谈，眼下急迫的冠状病毒疫情也都认账？（ 这可是戕害人类不可饶恕大罪！怎么认？活摘器官屠宰活人，怎么认？）；国际监督，全民选举，开放现在禁止的一系列领域（ 惩办盗国贼呢？）；我江曾可以保障稳住国内军警宪特，可以平稳过度，更换领导（去年穆桂英传达中南海老领导的话说，七年下来，习仅掌控了50%军队将领听习调遣，另外一半谁掌控着呢？不知道 ），条件呢，是美方要保证我江曾家族子嗣的利益和安全。

2月29日周六，文贵上午讲，即将有震撼性质的大事发生，但他却不能明说。然后，和几个组织代表紧锣密鼓彻夜开会商谈。而文贵第一次提出中国就要出现一个袁世凯，一个没有组织存在的新中国，是去年12月1日，迄今整三个月。也就是说，两国三方已经反反复复、拖拖拉拉商谈、准备了100天左右。

“ 江想跟老美媾和，所以现在靠杨，但我认为老江是很难成功的，因他干的灭绝人性的事太多，川普也忌讳跟他达成协议。”

完全认可度老意见。你跟这样的人媾和，你成什么了？你怎么跟世人解说？

象杨洁篪，王沪宁这类上海小瘪三，是知识份子中的败类，这几个人虽然左得厉害，但依然脱离不了小知识份子的局限性，那就是眼高手低，嘴皮子上的功夫厉害，笔头子上的功夫可以，但玩政治军事不行，只能做做参谋，都是马谡赵括，无实际斗争经验，无自己的班底。 其实李克强也一样，知识份子，在政治军事上的分量很轻。

说杨洁篪掌控了外交系统中的情治力量，其实是不确的，在国际上的情治布局，并非杨可以染指的，一个中统，一个军统，背后都有势力强大的老板，中统是曾，军统是胡，这才是实力派的大佬。

、、、

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

The Chinese Communist Party has done more damage to China’s prospects of becoming a global superpower than its most ardent detractors.

As president of the one-party state, Xi Jinping is responsible for political decisions that have facilitated the spread of a novel coronavirus from mainland China to countries around the world.

The CCP’s web of misinformation, censorship and corrupt ethos of putting the party before people have resulted in billions wiped from nations’ GDP as governments struggle to contain COVID-19.

The idea that China is fit to compete with America for global leadership is dead. The CCP is a political primitive and the coronavirus story shows how despots can make dwarfs of economic giants.

When a novel coronavirus was suspected of causing flu-like cases in central China, a doctor did what his training taught him to do. He set about trying to prevent harm. Dr Li Wenliang was a whistleblower who risked the ire of the communist state to warn people about an emerging virus.

Li worked as an ophthalmologist in Wuhan, the epicentre of COVID-19. In late December, he communicated concerns about unusual cases to medical school alumni on social media. A day later, the Chinese authorities notified the World Health Organisation about the Wuhan viral outbreak. While the WHO heaped praise on the CCP, it emerged that Chinese authorities had known about it since at least early December. In a Lancet article, researchers observed the first diagnosis was made on December 1 — a month before the Chinese government alerted the WHO. For a state that claims to be a good global citizen and champion of multilateralism, China has a lot of explaining to do.

Not only did Chinese public authorities fail to warn the world about the viral outbreak, President Xi waited until January 20 to make a public speech on the virus. Forbes reported that in remarks to government officials on January 7, Xi had discussed viral prevention and control. It appears he knew about the risks two weeks before.

On February 7, the man who tried to stop the virus succumbed to it. Dr Li had been publicly humiliated for doing his best to protect public health. Chinese authorities made him sign a letter stating he had made false comments about the virus.

But the liars are in government. The extraordinary irresponsibility of the CCP should not go unpunished. The party must be held to account by nations around the world for the human health disaster it has unleashed.

Freedom of speech is vital for good governance. In a medical crisis, it is essential to public health. In a democratic country, Dr Li and other whistleblowers might be congratulated for noticing an unusual health problem and warning people about potential risks. Yet the CCP responded by accusing whistleblowers of “fabricating, -disseminating and spreading rumours”. State-controlled media ran the party line in a chorus of condemnation.

In communist China, whistleblowers and human rights activists have been arrested. Others have disappeared. The regime has cracked down on internet forums where people expressed fury about government inaction and the suppression of information critical to public health.

It has lied about the emergence of the virus, took a month to reveal the threat, fudged statistics and placed the whole world at risk of a pandemic. But the CCP is utterly shameless. Last week, President Xi boasted that his government has “made positive contributions to safeguarding global public health security”. Qiushi Journal published remarks by Xi in late January where he ordered “all-out prevention and control work” and “the need for timely release of information and the deepening of international co-operation”. International co-operation? The hypocrisy is breathtaking.

The CCP presides over a regime of censorship designed to maintain power at any cost. It rounds up dissidents, disappears freedom fighters and denies human rights. In the past, the damage was largely restricted to domestic affairs because threats made to neighbouring democracies were met with international condemnation. Yet in the panic of a looming COVID-19 pandemic, there have been too few nations prepared to hold the Communist Party to account.

While the CCP focused on preening its image and showcasing its industrial might on the international stage (a 1000-bed hospital in 10 days!) Chinese people were dying by the dozen. At the time of writing, the total death toll was 2858 with 2682 deaths in the province of Hubei. Australia recorded its first death on Sunday. The total number of cases worldwide was 83,389 with 78,824 in mainland China.

When China embarked on a path of industrial development, the free world held out hope that market liberalisation would lead to a gradual opening of the communist state. Internationalists believed that history did not belong to Marx, but universal liberalism. As the Cold War entered its final stages and the Soviet Union was in terminal decline, Francis Fukuyama’s 1989 essay the End Of History was celebrated for its vision of a new world order. Liberal democracy at home and liberal internationalism abroad would prepare the way for global peace. The counter-thesis was steeped in political realism. Samuel Huntington believed the post-Cold War global order would not be characterised by Western-style universal liberalism, but a clash between Western, Islamic and Sinic civilisations.

Huntington’s thesis proved prescient. He saw the distinguishing features of world civilisations included vastly different beliefs about liberty, among other things. The founding father of the CCP, Mao Zedong, proved the point in 1957 when he said: “What should our policy be towards non-Marxist ideas? As far as … saboteurs of the socialist cause are concerned, the matter is easy, we simply deprive them of their freedom of speech.”

The iron fist of communist censorship has done untold damage to the Chinese people for decades. Now, it is threatening global health. The politics of the CCP is so primitive it is a danger to humankind. The communist state must be held accountable for its role in facilitating the COVID-19 outbreak and the mounting death toll.

这个Mischa把我拉黑了，虽然叫嚣反共，其实和土共一个德行。

最高境界的猪，别说，我还真佩服这号油盐不进的主。

推友 DT 、冠军的亲爹 推理思辨的功力厉害，度老的条分缕析，也是一种思路。Let's wait and see, shall we?

老郭有时候也会胡侃，中国的袁世凯，那可是历史转折关头的舵手，不可能是杨洁篪这种猥琐的小人，杨只不过是江的一个马崽，听命行事而已，他既无这个谋略，也无这个胆量。

楼主的这篇文章很不错，对现在形势的看法基本正确，现在是蛤蟆在放毒，目的是要把维尼搞下台，维尼因为自身能力差，已经是错误不断，现在还在死撑，难免已经摇摇欲坠了。

江想跟老美媾和，所以现在靠杨，但我认为老江是很难成功的，因他干的灭绝人性的事太多，川普也忌讳跟他达成协议。

真正的袁世凯当然有，不要忘记袁世凯是北洋军的总瓢把子，这是个基础，没有强大的军事实力，其它都是扯淡。

军委的老许听谁的？ 总参的老李听谁的，北方战区的老宋听谁的？ 38军听谁的？ 39军听谁的？ 54军听谁的？ 军统听谁的？ 这些都跟维尼无缘，知道了这个，才能知道当代的袁世凯是谁。

知道了袁世凯是谁，才能理解什么叫手握重兵。以待天时。