遠兄的剖析、表態 is mighty ubiquitous and omnipresent both at home and abroad, isnt' it? 你狂、你橫、你占理、你正義，好啊，走你！我讓你先拱卒、當頭炮！ Operation Bloody Nose : 
Editor's Note: A preventive U.S. attack in Korea, especially if it were undertaken unilaterally by Washington and even more so if it led to general war, would change everything, write Michael O'Hanlon and James Kirchick. The entire logic of U.S. extended deterrence and alliance solidarity will be put into serious doubt. This post originally appeared in The Hill. Is President Trump really considering a preventive military action of some kind after the Olympic season is over in Korea?  Michael E. O’HanlonDirector of Research - Foreign PolicyCo-Director, Security and StrategySenior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and IntelligenceThe Sydney Stein, Jr. ChairMichaelEOHanlon James KirchickVisiting Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe, Project on International Order and StrategyjkirchickNational Security Advisor H.R. McMaster has just denied that possibility, telling a bipartisan group of senators last week that the administration has no plans to carry out a so-called “bloody nose” attack against North Korea to constrain its nuclear weapons or long-range missile programs. But the idea has been circulating too long to be put to rest quite that easily, and President Trump has just kept it alive at the CPAC conference on Friday in Washington by stating that if sanctions against North Korea fail, we may have to consider “Phase 2.” Some of the options Trump might consider—shooting down future North Korean missile launches, destroying uranium enrichment centrifuges, enforcing U.N. sanctions with forcible naval action near North Korean coasts—have at least a superficial allure. Parts of the administration also may think a “bloody nose” attack would leave Pyongyang with few good retaliatory options, making it likely that Kim Jong-un would simply accept his punishment and then behave with more restraint going forward. This possible strategy is dubious on many grounds. But as others have observed, the central reason is this: Militarily, even if it could slow North Korea’s ability to threaten North America with long-range, nuclear-tipped missiles, it could not eliminate Kim’s existing arsenal of perhaps dozens of nuclear bombs plus a suite of shorter-range missiles that could probably carry them to points throughout the region. If Kim did decide to retaliate, an action-reaction spiral could ensue. If Kim did decide to retaliate, an action-reaction spiral could ensue that might lead to nuclear attacks against South Korea or Japan, whether or not that was Kim’s initial intent. Wars, once started, tend to escalate. The imperfect missile defenses in place in Korea and Japan might not be enough to intercept all that was incoming. Nuclear detonations over cities could well occur. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/02/26/a-bloody-nose-attack-in-korea-would-have-lasting-consequences/ 
特朗普總統 真的考慮過在韓國奧運季節結束後採取某種預防性軍事行動嗎？ 邁克爾·奧漢隆研究總監- 外交政策安全與策略聯席主管高級研究員- 外交政策，中心21世紀安全和情報小悉尼·斯坦因（Sydney Stein，Jr.）邁克爾·埃漢隆詹姆斯·基爾奇克客座研究員- 外交政策，美國和歐洲中心，國際秩序與戰略項目吉基奇克國家安全顧問HR麥克馬斯特（HR McMaster）剛剛否認了這種可能性，上周對兩黨參議員說，政府沒有計劃對朝鮮進行所謂的“血腥鼻子”襲擊，以限制其核武器或遠程導彈程式。 但是這個想法已經流傳了太久，以至於很難輕易解決。特朗普總統剛剛在星期五在華盛頓舉行的CPAC會議上保持了這一想法，他說如果對朝鮮的制裁失敗，我們可能必須考慮“ 2.” 特朗普可能會考慮的一些選擇，至少是表面上的誘惑，至少是表面上的吸引力。朝鮮發射未來的朝鮮導彈，摧毀鈾濃縮離心機，並通過在北朝鮮海岸附近採取強制性的海軍行動對聯合國實施制裁。 某些政府部門可能還認為，“流鼻涕”襲擊會使平壤缺乏良好的報復手段，這使得金正恩很可能會簡單地接受他的懲罰，然後表現出更大的克制。 這種可能的策略在許多方面都令人懷疑。但是，正如其他人所觀察到的，核心原因是：從軍事上講，即使它可以減緩朝鮮使用遠程核尖頭導彈對北美的威脅的能力，也無法消除金正日現有的可能數十枚核彈和一套短程導彈，可能會將它們運送到整個地區。 如果金確定要採取報復行動，那麼可能會發生行動-反應螺旋。 如果金正日決定採取報復行動，那麼隨之而來的反動螺旋可能會導致對韓國或日本的核襲擊，無論這是否是金正日的初衷。戰爭一旦開始，就趨於升級。在韓國和日本，不完善的導彈防禦體系可能不足以攔截所有傳入的導彈。城市上空的核爆炸很可能發生。 這是尚未討論的另一個重要點：如果發生這種情況，特朗普本來會以根本上抵制美國數十年外交政策的方式將美國置於首位。 為了甚至防止對美國祖國的假想威脅（我們可能有其他手段來防禦），他將大大增加在兩個條約盟國領土上發生災難的風險。實際上，他很可能已經將漢城或札幌換成了西雅圖。 通過採取焚化數以百萬計的朝鮮人和日本人（以及生活在這兩個國家的數十萬美國人-包括7萬軍事人員）的行動，他本來可以減少對數百萬美國人的危險。 |
