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TYLER ROGOWAYView Tyler Rogoway's ArticlesAviation_Intel
China's massive Yulin Naval Base on Hainan Island is one of the greatest strategic interests in the region. It is home to China's nuclear ballistic missile submarine fleet—the backbone of its second-strike deterrent—as well as other submarines. It sits at the northern edge of the highly contentious South China Sea. To its east is the gateway to the open Pacific and Taiwan. The most intriguing feature of this facility is the mysterious submarine cave built into the side of a mountain that dominates the southern end of the installation. Although I have seen satellite images of the roadway barges removed from the opening, we have never seen one with a submarine actually using it, until now.
You can read all about Yulin Naval Base, its submarine cave, and the very high level of strategic interest the U.S. and allied regional players put on it in this past article of ours.
The image was taken by Planet Labs, but first appeared on Radio Free Asia's social media channels. We were alerted to it via a post from @DRM_Long. Interestingly enough, not one other submarine is visible in the satellite image. The docks are completely empty. This also seems exceedingly rare based on our monitoring experience.
PHOTO © 2020 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED BY PERMISSION
The docks that usually host a number of submarines are completely empty.
It isn't clear exactly what type of submarine is seen in the image, but our best guess would be a Shang class/Type 093 nuclear attack submarine. The type seen is really beside the point, what's important is that we finally get to see this James Bond-esque feature in action.
As for where all the other submarines are, we have no clue. Tensions are exceedingly high in the region and the U.S. has massively upped its presence there. Meanwhile, Taiwan has gone on elevated alert as China executes war games nearby. While some of those drills could and likely do involve submarines based at Yalin, it's also possible that others have moved inside the mountain, as well. Why exactly remains unclear.
We will update this story as more information comes available.
Contact the author: Tyler@thedrive.com
该图像由Planet Labs拍摄，但首次出现在Free Free Asia的社交媒体频道上。@DRM_Long的帖子通知我们。有趣的是，在卫星图像中看不到另一艘潜艇。码头完全是空的。根据我们的监控经验，这似乎也极为罕见。
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Many more punitive actions against China are coming soon, and some could disrupt important supply chains for the furniture industry, Washington, D.C., lawyer Michael Borden warned in a Home Furnishings Association webinar last week.
“Watch out,” said Borden, who leads the Government Strategies group for the global law firm Sidley Austin LLP. “I know that members of this association have international supply chains, and that’s an understatement. I’ve been told by Trump campaign officials and administration officials to expect an announcement of punitive action against China and Chinese companies every three to four days between now and Election Day.”
Borden was a panelist on the webinar with Chris Andresen, HFA’s representative in the nation’s capital. Andresen noted that taking on China will be a focus of President Donald Trump’s re-election bid.
“To the extent that the Trump campaign has a defined set of issues to go against Joe Biden, certainly the situation with China is probably number one,” Andresen said.
‘Maximum chaos and disruption’
The president’s recent actions targeting Chinese social media apps TikTok and WeChat are part of a pattern that will be repeated often before the election, Borden said.
“These could be broad or they could be narrow, but they will all in the immediate term cause maximum chaos and disruption,” Borden said. “You’ve got to be really mindful that every few days there are going to be other executive orders, statements, administrative actions, regulations, impositions of sanctions, and they’re coming. They’re coming, and it’s going to be all the time, and they can be really disruptive.
“So, in addition to having to manage a pandemic, you’re going to have to manage an administration that is looking right now to punish China in every possible way – for the China virus, for the destruction of the U.S. economy, human rights, cheating on trade, intellectual property theft, everything. It’s going to almost certainly between now and November directly impact all of you. … You’re going to be hearing about supply chain issues all fall long.”
“Supply chain issues have become increasingly more difficult, particularly from that part of the world,” observed HFA Executive Director Mark Schumacher, who hosted the webinar. “That’s something that all of our members have been struggling with, small or large.”
The president will act against China
Much of the webinar conversation covered the stalled negotiations over another COVID-19 congressional relief bill. Borden expressed some hope that Republicans and Democrats might agree on some priorities in September – including the proposed RESTART Act, which HFA strongly supports. It would create a new lending program for businesses with up 5,000 employees.
But Borden said executive actions aimed at China are more certain.
“Here we are talking about COVID responses, but this is something that more likely than not is going to be like a cherry on top of problems because, even if the government is going to give you something, they’re also going to be making life more difficult,” Borden said.
Those issues already include high tariffs on most home furnishings products imported from China, Andresen added. HFA, as part of a broad business coalition, opposes those tariffs.
China is an easy target now, so it’s not likely that aggressive policies toward the Asian giant would change even if Biden is elected, Andresen said.
Biden would not reverse China orders
“I think it’s shifted Joe Biden’s longstanding positions on China and our relations with them,” Andresen said. “Even his campaign has said that he would not necessarily relieve the 301 tariffs if elected although he’s looking at it. It’s all tied into the origins of this virus.”
“Don’t think that a Biden presidency changes overnight the U.S.-China relationship,” he said. “Do you think Biden on January 20 or 21 changes executive orders that President Trump has imposed against China? No chance. Why would he politically do it? So he could be called soft on China and Republicans would have an issue for the next two years, that Joe Biden is soft on China? No way.
“So don’t expect that just because Trump is no longer in office there might be a difference in approach. There might be a more muted way, more tactful way of dealing with China, but don’t expect it to be some 180-degree reversal back to the previous order.”
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Doug is content manager and government relations staff member for the Home Furnishings Association. Please contact him with story ideas or concerns at 916-757-1167 or email@example.com
“当心，” 负责全球律所Sidley Austin LLP的政府策略小组的Borden说。“我知道该协会的成员具有国际供应链，这是一种轻描淡写的说法。特朗普竞选官员和政府官员已经告诉我，预计从现在到选举日，每三到四天将对中国和中国公司采取惩罚行动。”
博登（Borden）是与HFA驻美国首都代表克里斯·安德森（Chris Andresen）举行的网络研讨会的专家。安德森（Andresen）指出，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）竞选连任的重点将是中国。
主持网络研讨会的HFA执行董事Mark Schumacher指出：“供应链问题变得越来越困难，尤其是在世界那部分地区。” “这是我们所有成员无论大小都在努力的事情。”