太陽黑子是在太陽光球層上發生的太陽活動，為太陽活動中最明顯、

最顯見的活動現象。不過，美國國家航空暨太空總署（NASA）於 10 

月 2 日公布“太陽動態觀測衛星（SDO）”所拍攝到的太陽影像，

指出太陽表面再度出現“無黑子”（Blank Sun）現象，這已是今年

第 4 度觀測到太陽出現無黑子情況。科學家警告，目前為近一萬年

以來，太陽活動最急速下降的時期，而太陽活動的極小期可能導致

地球“小冰河期”來臨，且最快可能就在 2019 年底前發生。

據地層學的研究資料顯示，太陽黑子的活動至少已經持續了數億年，

且太陽黑子活動具有周期性，在周期期間內，太陽黑子數量會由多變

少、再由少變多，如此不斷循環向下一個周期，約每 11 年唯一周期，

而目前正處於第 24 活動周期，這個周期的太陽活動極大期落在2014 

年至 2015 年間，因此目前處於太陽黑子數量的下降時期。

據國外專業天文網站 SpaceWeather 指出，這次太陽的無黑子狀態，

是繼今年 2 月與 6 月後的第 4 度。著名太陽觀測專家、同時也是

氣象學家的 Paul Dorian 警告，太陽無黑子狀態出現的次數可能會

越來越頻繁，從一開始只持續幾天，之後可能變成持續幾周，接着，

可能好幾個月的時間內，都不會出現太陽黑子，而黑子數到達極小

期谷底的時間，可能落在 2019 年至 2020 年間，也就是說，距離

到達極小期的這段期間，太陽將會不斷出現無黑子狀態。

Dorian 認為，以歷史觀測記錄來看，太陽活動極小期的持續時間若

過長，可能導致地球大氣層最下層、也就是對流層的氣溫下降，直

接影響到身處對流層的我們，導致全球進入“小冰河期”。而若與

太陽黑子數到達極小期谷底的時間吻合，那麼“小冰河期”發生的

時間最快可能就在 2019 年。

上一次太陽活動最急速下降的時期，是在 1645 年至 1715 年間，

該時期被稱為“蒙德極小期（Maunder Minimum）”，太陽活動極小

期的時間維持了 70 年之久，在這段期間內，太陽黑子的數量非常

稀少，相較於正常可觀測到 40,000 至 50,000 顆太陽黑子，只觀

察到 50 顆左右的太陽黑子，且“蒙德極小期”剛好處於“小冰河

期（1550 年至 1770 年間）”中最冷的一段時間，當時地球氣溫大

幅下降，造成全球性的糧食減產、導致饑荒，且英國倫敦泰晤士河

甚至因此而結冰。

除了 Dorian 外，英國諾桑比亞大學（Northumbria University）

教授 Valentina Zharkov 也在 2015 年發布的研究中警告，太陽活

動從 2020 年至 2050 年間，就可能進入類似“蒙德極小期”的時

期，造成全球性的低溫與糧食減產，再次進入“小冰河期”，且太

陽表面活動可能在 2030 年代減少 60%，到達急速下降的巔峰。

By R. Siva Kumar Oct 04, 2016 05:19 AM EDT

Fullscreen

Shivers! Yesterday, NASA images showed that the 

sun has gone "blank" without any sunspots for the 

fourth time this year. The solar surface shows 

complete inaction. It could lead us to the Ice Age, 

say climate experts.

Usually, our sun doesn't have a pleasant face, but 

looks burning hot, pocked by sunspots. But now, it 

looks smooth, with sunspots at the lowest rate for 

10,000 years. Solar activity too has slowed down.

However, the sun's pleasant face isn't too pleasant 

for the earth. Such blank faces, without sunspot 

activity could usher in a cold spell, just like the 

Maunder Minimum, which began in 1645 and went 

on till 1715. That was called the Little Ice Age and 

even became well-known because of the winter 

frost fairs that became popular on the frozen 

surface of the Thames.

The warning was issued by meteorologist and 

renowned sun-watcher Paul Dorian in his report  

It spread some tension: "The blank sun is a sign 

that the next solar minimum is approaching and 

there will be an increasing number of spotless days 

over the next few years," said Dorian. "At first, the 

blankness will stretch for just a few days at a time,

 then it'll continue for weeks at a time, and finally 

it should last for months at a time when the sunspot 

cycle reaches its nadir. The next solar minimum 

phase is expected to take place around 2019 or 2020."

Sunspot activity is like a pendulum, swinging back 

and forth within a period of 11 or 12 years. However, 

solar activity is falling more rapidly than at any time 

in the last 10,000 years.

As SpaceWeather put it: "Right now the pendulum is 

swinging toward low sunspot numbers. Forecasters 

expect the cycle to hit rock bottom in 2019-2020. 

Between now and then, there will be lots of spotless

 suns. At first, the blank stretches will be measured 

in days; later in weeks and months. The current 

blank spell is the 4th such interval of 2016, so far."

Hence predictions - and these are not from astrologers 

but weathermen - forecast that more blank suns are 

likely. "There will be lots of spotless suns," say 

the forecasters.

Last year, Professor Valentina Zharkov said that in 

the 2030s, the sun's activity could plunge by 60%, 

leading to the next mini Ice Age. It would lead to 

crop failures as well as other disasters on the planet.

He said: "I am absolutely confident in our research. 

It has a good mathematical background and reliable 

data, which has been handled correctly. In fact, our 

results can be repeated by any researchers with the 

similar data available in many solar observatories, 

so they can derive their own evidence of upcoming 

Maunder Minimum in solar magnetic field and activity."

中國歷史上的小冰河期氣候——影響歷史的決定因素（二） 

          (2011-03-22 12:30:02)

http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_54fc75880100pjvn.html

六.第五個小冰河期接著明代末葉的前半期，仍然是屬於中國歷史上的第四個冷期。