金子還是股票：Stansberry PK Buffett
以現今美國的經濟形勢來看，投資金銀與投資股票，孰優孰劣？金融投資領域裡有兩種截然不同的觀點，以Porter Stansberry 和 Warren Buffett為代表。下面是兩個例子。
例1：Porter Stansberry: 50% gold, 50% cash
Porter Stansberry在最近的一個名為The End of America的商業廣告片中稱美元將不斷貶值，由此導致美國金融體系崩潰、社會出現動亂（http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nI-BIVWlc7A ）。網友白凡對 Stansberry的演講提供了中文編譯文本，見《盛世危言：美國的末日來到了嗎？（一）》。
Stansberry呼籲人們趕緊購買黃金。他建議投資者持有50%的黃金、50%的貨幣，藉以保值、度過危機。（http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_debt_122920102 ）。
Stansberry的演講與一系列評論文章代表了美國投資界一部分人的觀點。此種觀點由來已久，並非今日才突然出現。例如，投資評論家Dan Ferris在一篇評論中就說，The "End of America" Is Nearing, Buy and Hold Gold。（http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25588.html ）
例2：Warren Buffett: Forget gold, buy stocks
下面是財富雜誌資深記者Ben Stein於2010年10月採訪Warren Buffett時的一個片段。
FORTUNE -- The first thing I notice on my most recent visit with Warren E. Buffett, who recently turned 80, is how incredible he looks. He would look terrific for 50; for 80, he looks like Charles Atlas. He's modest about it, as he is about everything. "It all works great," he says. "The eyes, the hearing -- everything works great ... which it will until it all falls apart."
The second thing you notice is that he is so smart it curls your hair.
My first question, as I sit there on the couch in his office, is: "What about gold? Is this a classic bubble or what?"
"Look," he says, with his usual confident laugh. "You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"
Okay, so gold is not a screaming buy to Buffett. What should a typical upper-middle-class person in the U.S. buy to prepare for retirement?
"Equities," Buffett answers without a moment's hesitation.
（http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm）
Stansberry呼籲買黃金，Buffett強調買股票，到底誰對誰錯？個人認為沒有對錯之分，而是對美國經濟前景的不同預測而已。Stansberry 等人的宣傳具有一定價值，既美國在世界上的主宰地位今不如昔，美國人民必須重新思考生活方式。人們應該對此提高警惕，未雨綢繆。不過，本人對美國經濟的緩慢復甦充滿信心，在投資方面更傾向於長期持有股票的指數基金。少量地投資黃金（比如5%的總投資量）當然不是不可以，但需看準時機入場為宜。
如何投資是見仁見智的事。無論採用何種方式，都要仔細做研究，切忌人云亦云。歡迎網友評論指教。
相關文章：
在美投資理財心得（五之一）
