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By 罗伯兹(Godfree Roberts) ZT with translation by Xiaosi. 编者马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校教育与地缘政治专业(1973年毕业)
中国会成为无与伦比的超级大国吗?答案:到2040年,中国将成为无与伦比的超级大国。
中国将要主导世界经济的各个方面。 中国的人口是欧盟的三倍。因此,到2040年,中国的经济规模将比美国,欧洲和日本的经济总量还要多出50%。这符合诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·福格尔(Robert Fogel)在2010年的预测:“到2040年,中国人均收入将达到85,000美元,是欧盟预测的两倍还多,而她在全球GDP中所占的份额(40%),将使美国相形见拙。这就是经济霸权的样子。”
统治每一个科学学科。 日本科学技术省指出:2016年,中国已经是八个核心科学领域中四个领域中最具影响力的国家,与美国并列。中国在计算机科学,数学,材料科学和工程学领域位居第一,而美国在物理学,环境和地球科学,基础生命科学和临床医学,但中国在物理学方面正迅速追赶(中国斥资60亿美元建造了世界上最大的粒子加速器,这应该带头成为领先者)。十年前,中国没有一个学科领头羊,按照目前的速度,它将在十三年内引领所有这些学科。 主导每种技术。 中国已经在土木工程,制造,超级计算,语音识别,图形学,动力,卵石床反应堆,基因组学,火力发电,量子通信网络,ASW导弹,在轨卫星加油,无源阵列雷达等所有领域领先世界,超导材料,高光谱成像,纳米技术,特高压输电,电动汽车,高铁(肯定的),可持续能源,放射线照相术,可持续能源研究和制造,超音速太空武器,卫星量子通信和量子安全直接通信。到2030年,它将主导其余技术,例如计算机芯片制造和人工智能。 军事上占优势。 2020年,中国在其陆地,海洋和空中边界2000英里内完全控制了局面,与美国的进攻性装备相比,中国的防御武器更加先进,种类繁多。她的制造能力是美国的几倍,她的经济已经比美国更大和更强大,尽管美国舰队在战斗中胜出,但经济在战争中胜出。 主导网络空间和互联网。 中国已经以绝对的规模统治了互联网,到2035年,将有更多的人在互联网上进行业务交易,并为此花费更多的钱,这超过了欧洲和北美所有公民的总和。 在公民福祉中占主导地位。 得益于当前的反贫困运动,与美国相比,中国的街道更安全,教育水平更高,社会流动性更高,健康预期寿命更长,富人更多,饥饿,无家可归,被监禁和贫穷的人更少。 在道德上占领制高点。 如果政府遵循习近平主席的建议,到2049年,中国将再次拥有与毛泽东时代相同的基尼系数(最公平的财富分配),并且是所有主要政府中享受着最好的人权记录。 成为地球上最受信任的政府。 如果中国避免战争,不介入其他国家的内政,发展南欧和东欧,非洲和拉丁美洲并完成上述六项任务,它将在2040年成为世界仲裁者和天然领袖,无与伦比,独霸天下。
Godfree Roberts · Updated March 4 Ed.D. in Education & Geopolitics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst (Graduated 1973)
Will China become an unrivaled superpower?
China will become an unrivaled superpower in 2040, when it will Dominate every aspect of the world’s economy. China’s population is three times the EU’s so, in 2040, her economy will be fifty percent bigger than the American, European and Japanese economies combined. That’s in line with Nobelist Robert Fogel’s 2010 prediction, “China’s per capita income will hit $85,000 by 2040–more than double the forecast for the European Union–and her share of global GDP, 40 percent, will dwarf that of the United States. That is what economic hegemony will look like”.
Dominate every scientific discipline. By 2016, The Japan Science and Technology Agency said China wass already the most influential country in four of eight core scientific fields, tying with the U.S. China ranks first in computer science, mathematics, materials science and engineering while the U.S. still led in physics, environmental and earth sciences, basic life science and clinical medicine–but China is rapidly catching up in physics (it is spent $6 billion building the world's largest particle accelerator, which should give it the lead). Ten years ago, China led in none of these disciplines and, at its current pace it will lead all of them in thirteen years. Dominate every technology. China already leads the world in all fields of civil engineering, manufacturing, supercomputing, speech recognition, graphenics, thorium power, pebble bed reactors, genomics, thermal power generation, quantum communication networks, ASW missiles, in-orbit satellite refueling, passive array radar, metamaterials, hyperspectral imaging, nanotechnology, UHV electricity transmission, electric vehicles, high speed rail, sustainable energy, radiotelescopy, sustainable energy research and manufacturing, hypersonic space weapons, satellite quantum communications and quantum secure direct communications. By 2030 it will dominate the remaining technologies like computer chip making and artificial intelligence. Dominate militarily. By 2020 China will completely dominate the battlespace within 2000 miles of her borders on land, sea, and air where her defensive weaponry is more advanced and numerous than America’s offensive suite. Her manufacturing power is several times more powerful than America’s and her economy is already bigger and stronger than America’s and, though fleets win battles, economies win wars. Dominate Cyberspace and the Internet. China already dominates the Internet in sheer size and, by 2035, more people will transact business on the Internet and spend more doing so than all the citizens in Europe and North America combined. Dominate in citizen well-being. Thanks to the current anti-poverty drive, China has safer streets, better education, higher social mobility, longer healthy life expectancy, more rich people, and fewer hungry, homeless, imprisoned, and poor people than America.
Dominate the world ethically. If the government follows President Xi’s suggestions, by 2049 China will again have the same GINI coefficient–the most equitable sharing of wealth–as it did under Mao, and the best human rights record of any major government. Become the most trusted government on earth. If China avoids wars, doesn’t meddle in other countries’ internal affairs, develops southern and eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America and accomplishes the six tasks listed above, it will become the world’s arbiter and natural leader in 2040.
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