下面這篇博文是一年之前寫的，貼在《文學城》我的博客，今天放在這裡，是為了大家對比閱讀方便。新的分析，請閱讀《蘋果股價何時見五百？》。

 蘋果值得你繼續投資嗎？（2010年3月30日）

蘋果值得你繼續投資嗎？不少人給出了肯定的答案。

 從純粹數量的角度看，一年時間，股價從103美元上升到236美元，似乎是上升得太多了一點。再者，2140億美元的市值和微軟2600億美元也相差不多了。

這些數據能夠說明很多問題嗎？似乎不能！

蘋果公司最近是好消息連連，讓人應接不暇，眼花繚亂。

如果從基本面來看，22倍的市盈率，對應於下面兩年29%和15%的盈利成長預期，外加公司手裡大約每股40美元的現金。描繪的似乎依然是一幅很美麗的圖畫。華爾街預期在2010年和2011年蘋果公司的盈利，分別在每股11.71和13.41美元。

標準普公司基於2010年公司自己給予的盈利預期的19倍市盈率，獲得的是未來一年內的目標價位240美元，這個價位很可能這幾天就能夠實現。雖然目標價和實際價位相差不大，應該是沒有多少“值得”投資價值的，但是，標準普還是給予了“四星”的推薦。這說明，它還是覺得蘋果的未來盈利可能會比預期的要好不少。

如果在2011年蘋果能夠賺到每股15美元，對應於20倍的市盈率就是300美元的股價。如果在好消息不斷的時候，經濟打環境不錯，股民在熱心快腸一點，可能就會有350美元的“境界”了。

對此，作為投資者，你怎麼看，怎麼想呢？

在股價連沖新高的情況下，區區1.73%的賣空，是不是意味着人們不敢冒然“輕視”這個“青澀”的蘋果呢？看看同類中，股價從公司高層內部大量買入時的16美元，大幅下落到3.75美元的Palm，現在可還是有39%的賣空比例的。

再者，作為股市投資者，你不僅僅要想好是不是該繼續投資或者持有蘋果的股票，你同時還得想好，蘋果這個“愣頭青”的出現，會對其它公司造成什麼樣的衝擊？這種衝擊對於你的投資對象會有什麼樣的影響？特別是那樣在過去看上去很“安全”的公司的股票？（2010年3月30日貼於《文學城》汪翔博客）

最新的分析，請參閱《蘋果股價何時見五百》。

下面是蘋果公司的股價變化圖和關於蘋果可能好消息的報道。

 附錄一：蘋果市值超越微軟幾成定局

《綜合新聞》， 2010-03-30

 北京時間3月30日上午消息，據國外媒體報道，由於iPad平板電腦即將於本周六正式開售，刺激蘋果股價周一再創歷史新高，市值也首次突破2100億美元。 在周一納斯達克市場常規交易中，蘋果股價報收於232.39美元，較前一交易日上漲1.49美元，漲幅為0.65%。按照當天收盤價計算，蘋果的市值達到2107.3億美元，與其主要競爭對手微軟的差距不到500億美元。 微軟股價當天報收於29.59美元，較前一交易日下跌0.07美元，跌幅為0.24%。按照當天收盤價計算，微軟市值為2596.1億美元。業內人士認為，以目前的情況來看，蘋果市值超越微軟只是時間問題。 

　　 上周六有報道稱，首批iPad已經被預訂一空，現在下單的用戶只能到4月12日才能夠收到這款產品。外界預計，iPad兩周的預定量已經達到 24萬部，這還不包括上市首日通過百思買店面銷售的產品。因此，按照目前的消息來看，蘋果本周末將再度創造轟動性的新聞，而這一點也將在下周一的股價中得以反映。 

　　    蘋果股價的推動因素還不僅限於此。iPad最初只面向美國市場推出，而且首批發貨的只是不包含3G模塊的Wi-Fi版本。今年4月底，蘋果還將面向其他幾個市場推出iPad，並將與AT&T聯手在美國市場發布3G版iPad。 這將推動蘋果股價5月份繼續上漲。有消息稱，新款MacBook和Mac Pro將搭配最新的英特爾處理器。蘋果完全可以等到iPad對股價的推動效應減弱時再推出這兩款產品。 

　　    而蘋果的全球開發者大會(以下簡稱“WWDC”)也有望成為又一個推動因素。雖然蘋果尚未公布今年WWDC的日程，但按照慣例，這一會議將於6 月底舉行。蘋果屆時肯定會推出最新版iPhone。值得注意的是，蘋果今年尚未按照慣例在硬件發布之前推出新版iPhone OS的SDK(軟件開發套件)。iPad將運行iPhone OS 3.2，但有消息稱，蘋果正在開發iPhone 4.0。不過蘋果似乎不太可能選擇5月份發布新版SDK，因為這樣一來，在新款iPhone發布前，開發者就只有幾周時間來適應這個開發套件。所以，iPhone 4.0的SDK可能會在今年晚些時候發布。 

　　    無論如何，蘋果今年夏天將有一系列重要產品發布，從而對其股價起到推動作用。在此之後，這500億美元的市值差距恐怕就完全不值一提了。 

附錄二：

UPDATE: New IPhone Seen Shaking Up Players In Wireless World

 3/30/10，Dow Jones，By Roger Cheng

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) upcoming iPhone, which will eventually be compatible with Verizon Wireless' network, could help the carrier take the lead in its fierce two-horse race with AT&T Inc. (T) and have a domino effect throughout the smartphone industry.

The nation's two largest carriers are neck-and-neck each quarter in nabbing the highest quality customers. But where Verizon Wireless has done it with a myriad of products and its reputation for network quality, AT&T has heavily relied upon its exclusive agreement with Apple to sell the iPhone.

But that advantage may eventually fade. Apple is building a phone that is able to run on the technology used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), according to The Wall Street Journal. The common belief is that AT&T's exclusivity will eventually end, and that the other carriers may get their hands on the vaunted smartphone. Verizon Wireless is seen as a primary beneficiary.

"There is undoubtedly enormous pent-up demand for the iPhone on Verizon's superior network," said Craig Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

Moffett estimates the shift to a non-exclusive model would allow Verizon Wireless to gain up to 3.5 million more new contract customers in the first six months, while AT&T would gain 1.4 million fewer customers in the same time frame.

Verizon Wireless, jointly owned by Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and Vodafone Group PLC (VOD), actually took the lead in customer growth in the fourth quarter, adding 1.2 million contract customers to AT&T's 910,000.

Uncertainties remain. It's unclear how Verizon Wireless would eventually price the device because AT&T pays a hefty premium to sell the iPhone at $200. While Apple is reportedly building an iPhone for release in September, there's no guarantee it will run on Verizon Wireless this year. The device could instead be sold in China, where China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA) uses the same network as Verizon Wireless.

"We wouldn't count on a Verizon iPhone for the holidays," said Bill Shope, analyst at Credit Suisse.

A Verizon Wireless spokeswoman declined to comment. Nonetheless, the news sparked Verizon shares, which were recently up 3.4% to $31.47. Vodafone's American Depositary Shares gained 1% to $23.23.

AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel said the carrier and Apple have a strong relationship, but he declined to go into the specifics.

What's clear, however, is that Apple would be the biggest winner. The company would have access to the other half of the country that used an incompatible network, and the iPhone would remain the dominant device in the industry.

An Apple spokeswoman declined to comment. Apple shares, which hit an all-time high Tuesday of $237.48, were recently up 1.5% to $235.91.

AT&T has been planning privately for the loss of the exclusivity, according to a person familiar with the company's thinking. The company has known since the beginning that the relationship would eventually change, the person said.

The loss would be a blow to AT&T. The carrier heavily relies upon the iPhone. In the last quarter, it added more new iPhone customers than net subscriber additions, implying that nearly all of its growth came from the device.

AT&T shares fell 1.9% to $26.02.

AT&T wouldn't be the only loser. Just as the iPhone has brushed aside every other smartphone in AT&T's line-up, it could do the same thing at Verizon Wireless. Struggling Palm Inc. (PALM) is the most obvious victim. Even with marketing support, the company's smartphones haven't sold well, and wouldn't fare any better with Apple's device in the mix.

Palm shares were 3.3% lower at $3.77.

Handset makers Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (SSNHY, 005930.SE) and LG Electronics Inc. (066570.SE), which have successfully sold quick messaging phones to the carrier, could also be hurt as consumers upgrade to the iPhone. On the Korean exchange, Samsung shares slid 0.5%, and LG shares added 0.4%.

Samsung spokesman Kim Titus said the company doesn't comment on competitors.

Motorola Inc. (MOT), which sells Verizon Wireless's flagship Droid, could also struggle to create devices to match the iPhone's hype. Motorola slipped 1 cent to $7.22.

Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM) and its Blackberry line could also be affected, but analysts believe it still has a strong position at the carrier. Its base of business clients still remains a valuable source of income for Verizon Wireless. Research in Motion shares were off 1.2% to $74.76.

A Research In Motion spokeswoman declined to comment.

Not everyone is dreading a Verizon iPhone. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) is a likely beneficiary because it makes the chips that go into phones compatible with that network. Qualcomm shares were up 0.7%, to $42.06.

-By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires;