苹果消息跟踪：如果苹果进入电视市场？

苹果将进入电视市场一搅浑水，看来是肯定的，不同的只是何时。问题是，如果苹果真的开始进攻这个市场，谁将是第一轮的受害者？谁又会是第一轮的得益者？随后，又会有什么样的长远影响？当年智能手机的流行，让期望通过廉价数码相机开发咸鱼翻身的柯达做了一场白日梦，随后，又雇佣了一位低能的惠普高管，搞没有前途的喷墨打印机，而且还主打低价油墨市场，简直就是一个弱智的家伙，结果，才有今天柯达的可能破产。如果乔布斯回归苹果之后，不立马停掉喷墨打印机业务，还像柯达那位弱智的家伙一直做下去，今天的苹果估计也只有破产一条路可走。有时候，我觉得，很多美国大公司的高管，真的是弱智到家了，但是，就是这些弱智的家伙，还一次次的有机会，结果，就是一个个百年老店的败落。关于柯达破产的解析，我后面有机会时再来戏说。

附录：TECH VIEW: Apple Threat Looms Over TV At CES 

Jan 10, 2012 07:57:47 (ET)

   By Therese Poletti

   A DOW JONES COLUMN

In the last couple of years, recent product introductions by Apple Inc. (AAPL) have managed to dominate--or even set the tone for--much of the industry at the Consumer Electronics Show, even though Apple never exhibits at the show.

The last two Consumer Electronics Shows were overshadowed by Apple--first in 2010 by rumors of a tablet and then in 2011 by the iPad's stunning success. Indeed, January 2011 brought a slew of iPad wannabes, many of which have become road kill, as we predicted. The CES shows in 2008 and 2009 were impacted by the 2007 launch of Apple's first iPhone.

This year, as the sprawling show floor officially opens in Las Vegas, should be no different. Except that this time around, the specter of Apple and its rumored plans will torment the core of CES: the television business, ripe for the picking with a growing number of customers fed up with costly cable service and the lack of innovation in TVs.

"Apple is a very prominent non-participant at CES, within the TV industry and elsewhere in the consumer electronics industry," said Paul Gagnon, director of North American TV research at NPD DisplaySearch

The Cupertino, Calif., company has not made any announcements in TV beyond its Apple TV set-top box, which former CEO Steve Jobs once called a "hobby." But before his death in October 2011, Jobs told his biographer Walter Isaacson that he had "finally cracked" TV with the "simplest user interface," that would synch with all your devices and get rid of the complex remote controls now used for DVD players and cable.

"Apple is going to do something at some point," said Shaw Wu, a Sterne Agee analyst. "It's a question of timing."

The television market is clearly in the cross hairs. Consumers are frustrated with high costs for cable services, including paying for hundreds of channels they never watch and systems with antiquated or bizarre navigation tools. There's also a high saturation point of consumers who have already purchased a big-screen HDTV.

Google Inc. (GOOG) is providing one effort with its Android based software that integrates streaming Web content with standard TV fare.

But its first generation of Google TV, unrolled in 2010, was underwhelming. At CES, some TV makers are showing Google TV built into new sets with the latest second generation software by the Internet search giant. On Monday, for example, LG Electronics Inc. (066570.SE) unveiled super-thin LCD TVs, including one with a 55-inch screen, with Google TV built in.

"This year the TV industry had kind of muddled through," Gagnon said. "2011 was not a strong growth year for the TV industry. A lot of people own them and TV makers are trying to find something to excite consumers to get them to trade up."

In 2011, global TV unit shipments are estimated to have been flat, according to NPD DisplaySearch, with only 0.1% growth. The firm forecasts that the market will grow 2% in 2012, to 254 million units, boosted in part by new features such as 3D technology and LED backlights. But in general, the market is saturated and the average replacement cycle for a TV is much greater than a PC, typically seven to eight years, Gagnon said.

So now, consumers who don't need to upgrade their TV set for awhile, want smarter, more navigable, and less costly viewing. The instances of cord cutting--those who are getting rid of their cable service--is creeping upwards, as more consumers are watching network TV shows or movies streamed over the Internet, cancelling cable and the hundreds of channels they never watch.

"We have so many gazillion channels, it's a laborious process," said Joshua Weinberg of the Digital Life Consulting Group in San Francisco, who does not subscribe to cable anymore. Weinberg and his family watch TV shows on the Internet via Ethernet cables throughout his home and the increasingly popular box developed by Roku. "Roku becomes one of the apps on the TV. It's moving away from a dumb monitor...Apple TV could be in that direction."

A study by Deloitte earlier this week of U.S.consumers reported that 9% of respondents had canceled cable subscriptions, and another 11% said they were considering it. Viewers are also watching TV shows and even movies on other devices, including tablets and smartphones.

"Apple could totally change the game," Wu said. "The content is what's holding it up. It's tough to predict. The most important trend is cord cutting." Wu noted it is still a nascent trend and that cable companies and broadcasters still hold the cards with their content. "But if that continues, and the content guys are losing business, they may be forced to explore with Apple where they have to change their business model."

Some speculation around Apple TV includes theories that Apple may even be developing its own TV, and thus would control the whole ecosystem, much as it does with the iPhone, the iPad, the iPod, and the Mac.

Computing, too, will owe some new developments to Apple. Following Intel Corp.'s (INTC) design lead, computer makers will also be grabbing much of the spotlight with the sleeker laptops called "Ultrabooks" by the chip giant. The second wave of these thinner, lighter laptops that are being unveiled at CES were inspired by the popularity of Apple's MacBook Air, which uses flash memory for storage and lacks a hard drive and an optical drive.

So once again, CES will likely prove to be dominated by a company that isn't even there.