苹果价值再评价

我们继续唠叨苹果。现在这个时候的苹果股票，给你的很可能是个巨大的难得机会，当然，也可能继续，是个巨大的陷阱。对于机会与陷阱的判断，还是得基于你个人的解读角度。争议最大的时候，也是机会最好的时候。如果大家都意见统一了，那么，这时候你基本上也没有什么甜头可找。下面是对于苹果作为企业，其经营状况的新解读。有点意思的是，如果你将苹果的数据和亚马逊的比较一番，再看看股市对于两家公司给予的不同价值判断结果，你会很换糊涂：亚马逊的价值是它的那个销售平台，在华尔街眼里会“长生不老”；而苹果的最大价值是它所制造和生产的产品，这些家伙只有短暂的生命力。所以，苹果的问题，还不仅仅只是市值太高，或者最重要的还不是“市值太高”。

亚马逊在今天开门之后的市值，估计能够达到130B的样子，是当前苹果市值的四分之一强，而其市盈率在目前位置还是“几乎可以忽略不计”！就是为了一个有价值的平台，华尔街舍得花钱。

我在想，当销售税一条被拉平之后，亚马逊到底会有多大的竞争力呢？

我在亚马逊购买的物件不少，当年的经验告诉我，那里的很多物品，在价格上并不是经常有优势。很多时候，你会发现，在本地的商店，像Costco，甚至是Staples，你都能获得更好的价格和服务。

这样看来，很多人喜爱在亚马逊购买，很可能是基于一种不实际的幻觉：那里的物品就是便宜！

再者，亚马逊24%的毛利，对于一个零售商而言，是太低了点。如果亚马逊想大大滴赚钱，很可能就不得不增加这个毛利率，那么，增加之后的亚马逊的竞争力会在哪里呢？仅仅只是购物方便吗？恐怕不够吧！

而苹果则非常不同！

下面的最新的关于亚马逊的盈利报告解读：

Better-than-expected results in the fourth quarter, propelled shares of Amazon.com, Inc. to a new high in pre-open session.

Its quarterly profit was helped by the growth in its high-margin business during the holiday shopping quarter which saw robust sales.

The Seattle-based company said operating income jumped 56 percent to $405 million in the fourth quarter, compared with $260 million in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Amazon’s stock climbed 11 percent to $288 in pre-open trading.

The company also said fourth-quarter revenue rose 22 percent to $21.27 billion as it grabbed a big share of online spending during the holidays. The gross profit margins were 24 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with Wall Street expectations of about 22 percent.

 还有人更勇敢，在假定苹果已经完蛋的前提下，“看到”了BestBuy的巨大投资潜力。我已经好久没有去那里购物了，虽然我的购物数量并不小，而且也非常的频繁，但是，没有一次，那里能够给我消费的热情。

下面是人们这么提的理由，看看也无妨。

在这里，我给了三个方面的解读文章：

其一是，如果苹果真的不行了，谁会真的得益？有人说是BestBuy，因为，击败这家零售商的不是亚马逊，而是苹果。亚马逊做的，只是给予它传统的竞争压力，而苹果做的，则是釜底抽薪的打击；

其二是，苹果的价值到底应该怎么样解读？人们是不是误读了什么？

其三是，在大跌之后，苹果是不是已经成为一家连巴菲特都会眼馋的投资对象？

链接：面书会成为下一个苹果吗？

Sell Apple Buy Best Buy?

By THE MOTLEY FOOL in News

Published: January 29, 2013 at 9:45 pm

If BB&T Capital Markets analyst Anthony Chukumba is right, Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY) may start to rise like a phoenix out of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s ashes.

Chukumba upgraded shares of the beleaguered retailer yesterday, bumping his firm's rating from hold to buy and establishing a $21 price target. The thesis here is that Apple's fall from grace is a golden opportunity for the consumer electronics superstore.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has hurt Best Buy -- and is on the brink of putting RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH) out of business -- because of the iPhone's success.

New connections Apple's success has hurt Best Buy in more ways than one. For starters, Apple's the belle of the mall. It draws in customers seeking the latest iToys. Why go to Best Buy when you know you want an iPhone or an iPad? The prices are essentially the same, so why not go for the full Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) experience? You won't have to stumble over a stack of Justin Bieber CDs or argue your way out of obsolescence insurance. It also doesn't help that when Apple introduces a new product its namesake stores are the ones getting the healthiest allocations.

Apple's waning popularity should woo smartphone buyers back to Best Buy, since there really isn't a chain of Samsung or HTC stores populating suburban shopping centers.

The other major way that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has hurt Best Buy is that iPhones carry crummy margins. It's not just wireless carriers that are happy to see Android devices gaining momentum, freeing them of shelling out more than $300 for every iPhone they sell. The markups are lousy for retailers, too.

RadioShack -- a company that has more to gain than even Best Buy -- has seen its margins obliterated since it shifted its focus to emphasize wireless devices. The only concept that's still growing at the tired Best Buy is its chain of small-box Best Buy Mobile stores.

If the iPhone is no longer cool, Best Buy stands to improve, according to Chukumba.

Unfortunately, it's not as easy as that.

Don't bury Apple -- it's not dead yet There are a few problems with the theory that Best Buy will benefit from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s slip in relevance.

For starters, why should Best Buy be the beneficiary?

Once someone buys a smartphone, it's the wireless carrier that keeps monthly contact with the customer. It's the carrier that will likely sell the next device when it's time to upgrade.

Best Buy will also suffer on pricing. The same showrooming trend that has seen Amazon.com, Inc. continue to gain market share in consumer electronics at Best Buy's expense doesn't change. If anything, Apple's slip is a bigger coup for Amazon since it doesn't offer new carrier-subsidized iPhones the way that Best Buy does.

Finally, let's touch on innovation . Portable media players were dead until the iPod was introduced in 2001. The smartphone wasn't cool until Apple rolled out the original iPhone. Nobody wanted a tablet until Apple introduced the iPad.

Sure, it's this same evolution of devices that encouraged the digital delivery of music, video, games, and books that have killed Best Buy's once thriving physical media categories. However, that would've happened anyway. The problem here is that without Apple's sense of innovation, who will consumers follow as the tech tastemaker of choice?

Best Buy flopped in backing 3-D HDTVs. Do you think that would've happened if Apple had gotten into this market?

Apple has the power to breathe new life into TVs, musical instruments, cameras, and even wristwatches if it chose to go that route. Best Buy would benefit -- initially, at least -- in the revolutions. If Apple is somehow irrelevant, then the whimsy of consumer electronics is as dead as Circuit City.

The world according to bears There's another problem with matching Apple's decline with Best Buy's ascent, and it's a matter of geography.

Apple is still a very big factor in the United States. Did you see the reports out of the country's two largest wireless carriers? iPhones continue to be the smartphone of choice. Apple's demise has come from sluggish international sales. Outside of the rapidly evolving upper class in China , Apple smartphones have been hard sells throughout Europe and other regions where carriers can't subsidize the iPhone to the point where they are as cheap as high-end Android handsets.

How does this help Best Buy?

Best Buy doesn't have a presence in Europe, where Apple is truly taking a beating. Best Buy's stores are largely here, save for its appliance chain in China. The class act of Cupertino is still a domestic force, and that means that folks will continue to flock to trendy Apple Store locations in lieu of barren Best Buy Mobile shops in desolate strip malls.

Best Buy isn't a phoenix. In mythological terms, it's more in the mold of Icarus. It may seem to be flying, but those wings of feathers and wax will melt just as things start to heat up again.

Apple “Deserves Another Look,” Says Barclays

By Michelle Jones, January 30, 2013

Apple Inc.’s earnings report last week was disastrous to the stock, which plummeted below $450 per share at one point; however some analysts aren’t ready to throw in the towel just yet.

Barclays PLC analysts said that while investors’ initial concerns about the company are clear, there’s more to Apple’s latest earnings report than just the negatives.

In a report issued to investors today, analysts looked more closely at both the positives and negatives from Apple’s latest earnings report. They said they believe that “the tone around the ‘new guidance’ metrics sparked a bearish reaction,” but that Apple still has plenty of potential for long-term growth.

The Negatives

First they noted that when Apple Inc. changed its guidance protocol, it “created a stir.” Instead of giving the conservative guidance the company has given in the past, it decided to give investors a range that indicates what it will likely report.

Barclays believes that this was simply a way for Apple to “reset sell-side sentiment to lower expectations.” In the past it was generally believed that Apple would beat its guidance, but they say that the company is now in “a more mature phase” and must change the way it reports guidance.

Barclays PLC also noted that investors were upset that the iPhone won’t get a large screen any time soon, although they don’t believe CEO Tim Cook’s answer was a definite no. They believe the company is working on a larger screen size, although we might not see it this year.

Several analysts have noted that Apple Inc.’s big cash pile is a positive for the company, one thing that was missing from last week’s earnings call was a definitive answer on stock buyback plans. Some investors hoped that it would speed up its $10 billion buyback program, but there was no definite answer on what the company would do.

Barclays PLC said in order for Apple Inc. to keep moving forward, it also needs to release some major updates to its products and services. The analysts said they believe iTunes should get into the subscription services market and that the iPhone should become more than just a phone. “We find it hard to believe that iPhone users would switch to Android if their iPhone was a credit card, a TV remote and a conduit for iTunes subscription services,” they wrote.

The Positives

So what about the positives? Of course several analysts have mentioned the fact that Apple Inc.’s cash flow is very strong. Also the fact that the company did the same amount of business in the four weeks of the fourth quarter of 2012 as it did in the five weeks of the fourth quarter of 2011 is pretty impressive. Many investors did not note immediately that there was an extra week in the quarter last year, so the company’s earnings were not flat. They actually increased.

The analysts also noted that Apple Inc.’s gross margin was still 38.6 percent in spite of what they call a “sizeable hit” from warranty accruals. In fact they believe that warranty accruals will be “a relative tailwind” quarter over quarter because the impact they have on earnings should not be as significant this time around.

Barclays felt that investors also “underappreciated” Apple’s growth in China, “which was in the triple digits.” They said iPhone sales doubled in China even though the iPhone 5 was only there for part of the fourth quarter.

Why Warren Buffett Might Buy Apple Shares

 By THE MOTLEY FOOL in Hedge Funds

Published: January 31, 2013 at 9:01 am

Everyone who follows the stock market knows that shares of Apple Inc. have been under heavy selling pressure over the past few months. Despite the fact that Warren Buffett does not usually take stakes in technology companies, I believe there are reasons why Buffett could be a buyer of AAPL at current levels.

Buffett doesn't usually buy tech stocks

Throughout his investing career, Warren Buffett, chairman & CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has avoided investing in most technology companies. To Buffett, investing in technology companies is problematic for a few reasons. Firstly, Buffett likes to invests in what he understands, companies such as Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, American Express, and Procter & Gamble are a few of his favorites. Given the fact the Buffett does not even have a computer in his office, let alone a smartphone or tablet computer it is almost impossible for Buffett to understand technology companies such as Google, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon, and many other household tech companies. This lack of understanding has led to Buffett missing some of the best investment opportunities of the past twenty years. In addition to lacking a fundamental understanding of many technology companies, Buffett has also said that he does not know how to value technology companies such as Facebook.

The exception to the rule: IBM

As discussed above, in general Buffett does not invest in technology companies. However, there is always an exception to the rule in this case International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM). Since initiating a stake in late 2011, Buffett has bought enough IBM so that it is now Berkshire's third largest holding behind Coca Cola and Wells Fargo. Here's Buffett's comments on the IBM stake:

IBM has done an incredible job executing its long-term strategy, has an excellent road map for the future, and respects its shareholders by being honest with them and doing big stock buybacks. They've done all kinds of things right.

To this point, I think it is fair to say the Apple has done a less than stellar job of respecting shareholders by being honest with them and doing big stock buybacks. While Apple Inc . (NASDAQ:AAPL) did recently initiate a stock buyback and dividend program, these moves have been very conservative given Apple's cash hoard. CNBC's Jim Cramer put it best:

Apple's management needs to realize what everyone else has: that it's a regular public company like any other, especially since the death of its founder, Steve Jobs. And until it either stops being public or trades through its cash, management is going to have do a much better job of explaining itself.

In a recent piece entitled Why Apple Should Announce A $100 Billion Stock Buyback, I argued that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) should be doing more for shareholders. While a $100 billion buyback would be nice, I doubt we will get it anytime soon. That being said, even a smaller buyback program would help change the narrative surrounding Apple and its poor management of shareholder cash. A healthy buyback program would likely make Buffett an interested buyer.

Apple's competitive moat

Warren Buffett often says that he likes to invest in companies that have a wide moat, meaning a competitive advantage over other companies. Buffett said of IBM:

It's a company that helps IT departments do their job better. It is a big deal for a big company to change auditors, change law firms, or change IT support. There is a lot of continuity to it.

Buffett is arguing that IBM has a moat because it is difficult for companies to switch to other service providers. Like IBM, I also believe that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has something of a moat in the form of the Apple Ecosystem. There are millions of people who own not just an iPhone or an iPad, or a Mac, but all three. Given this, it is rather difficult and uncomfortable for users to switch away from Apple. That is not to say that it is impossible. If another company, I have no clue who it will be, comes along with superior devices, consumers will, over time, shift away from Apple to the competitor. However, the Apple Ecosystem gives Apple an advantage in that consumers are more likely to stick with Apple.

Valuation

Valuation is, perhaps, the most compelling reason for Buffett to buy Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). Currently, Apple is trading at 10 times trailing earnings and 8.5 times forward earnings. These numbers would lead you to believe that Apple's earnings have stagnated and are no longer growing. This is not the case. I am confident that Apple will continue to grow earnings going forward, albeit at a slower pace than before. Interestingly the company is trading at a lower PE ratio than Berkshire's five largest holdings, Coca-Cola, IBM, Wells Fargo, American Express, and Proctor & Gamble.

Conclusion

While Warren Buffett has not been a fan of technology stocks, I think it is possible that he picks up some Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) shares. As has been proven by his IBM move, Buffett is willing to deviate from his own principles under special circumstances. There are a few reasons why Buffett may be willing to make an exception for Apple. Maybe, Buffett is of the belief that, like IBM, Apple has a wide competitive moat. Alternatively, Buffett could be drawn to the company because of its ridiculously cheap valuation. A change in AAPL's plans to return money to shareholders could also pique Buffett's interest. Finally, any combination of these could also lead to Buffett buying AAPL.

链接：面书会成为下一个苹果吗？