再议苹果的投资价值

苹果股票，是很多人心中的痛：想爱，却跌跌不休；想恨，却喜爱它的产品和不错的经营业绩。还有它手里为数巨大的现金持有，和在整个世界都咄咄逼人的气势。

在华尔街，任何公司的股票价格，最终还是得由公司的内在价值来确定。而衡量这个内在价值的，就是公司的现有盈利能力和未来盈利能力的成长速度了，当然还有公司财务上的健康情况。这也就是人们喜欢强调的P/E/G，市盈率和成长速度的比。

财务健康，苹果是没有问题的，那么多现金持有和对于现金的保守、安全使用，是投资者能够放心的部分。可是，目前还非常强势的产品，在未来是不是可以继续强势，特别是在没有重大的科技创新作为基础的情况下？就是人们在担心的最大问题之一。

由于这里涉及到对未来经营状况的预测，所以，这个比例的大小和可靠性，就是仁者见仁智者见智。于是乎，就有了风险，和投资者对风险的不同看法。

前面已经给大家讲了很多关于苹果的“故事”，下面这篇文章在强调苹果未来的成长速度肯定会下降的问题：这么大的公司，继续按照20%的速度来成长自己的盈利，是不太现实的事情。

那么，如果达不到20%，下降之后比较合理的速度又会是什么呢？10%？还是更低？如果是10%，并且可能性很大，那么，合理的股价会在哪里呢？

目前的市盈率大概对应于10%的未来盈利成长，看来，华尔街的人们，在用自己手里的金钱告诉大家：认可了这个10%的盈利成长。

如果这个10%的盈利成长能够持续五年，那么，在未来的两、三年内，股价按照10%的速度成长的可能性也就非常的大。这样算来，你的投资决策可能就会有点谱了。

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Apple Inc. Isn’t As Cheap As Wall Street Claims

By MEENA KRISHNAMSETTY

Published: December 29, 2012 at 12:02 pm

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one of the most popular stocks among Wall Street analysts. According to Thomson/First Call 48 of the 58 analysts covering the stock have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. Apple’s one year median price target of $750 is also 47% higher than its current price. Analysts also expect that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will make $49 in its current fiscal year ending September 2013 and $57 in FY2014. Even the most bearish analyst thinks AAPL will earn $41.75 in FY2013. So, according to Wall Street Apple’s forward price-earnings ratio is at most 12.

Apple also currently has $128 per share in cash and investments on its balance sheet. After backing this out, Apple trades at a forward PE ratio of 9.5 according to the most bearish analyst. Apple’s forward PE ratio (excluding cash) falls to 8 if we use analysts’ consensus estimate. That’s a really cheap valuation for a stock that is expected to grow its earnings by 21% over the next 5 years. That’s not a typo. Wall Street analysts expect Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to grow its earnings per share to $125 in 5 years. That’s an estimated annual growth rate of 20.7% for a $500 billion company.

Don’t be fooled by these wild estimates. Just three months ago the same analysts expected earnings of $53.30 per share for FY2013, almost 10% higher than their current estimates. Their EPS estimate for FY2014 was also $61 just three months ago.  Analysts’ current year estimates are starting to get more realistic but their really haven’t updated their 5-year estimates. Let’s take a closer look.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) earned $44.15 in its 2012 fiscal year. So, analysts expect a 10.5% increase in earnings in 2013. Three months ago their 2013 growth estimate was 20.7%, same as their 5-year growth estimate. I am extremely skeptical about all of these estimates. Here is why:

1. None of these analysts take into account a major change in consumer’s preferences towards Apple products. Thirty years ago Sony was the Apple of the day. Ten years ago Nokia was introducing the coolest phones. It is inevitable that consumers will notice that Apple’s products aren’t as superior as they once were and they will stop paying the huge premiums Apple is charging right now.

2. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s gross profit margin will probably shrink this quarter. That’s what the company said in October. Introduction of a high cost iPhone and lower margin iPad mini is the reason behind this. Apple needs to keep doing this to increase its sales. It hopes that the increase in sales will make up for the decline in margins.

3. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) used to be once step ahead of its competitors. Not anymore. iPhone 5 isn’t the clear choice over Samsung Galaxy S III and iPad has several credible alternatives. Steve Jobs’ tenacious pursuit of perfection was the key ingredient of Apple’s success. We will probably find out in a year or two that Apple won’t be able to come up with another game changing product such as Apple TV.

I am certain that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) won’t be able to grow its earnings at a 20% rate over the next 5 years. Wall Street analysts are wrong. However, I still like the stock and have a small position. Google Inc (NASDAA:GOOG), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE:KMB), and Altria (NYSE:MO) are the four peers I will use in my analysis. Google is a true tech growth stock that is expected to grow its earnings by 14% over the next five years and its 2013 PE ratio is 15. As you may agree this growth estimate is a bit rosy but still more realistic than Apple’s. Microsoft is a better comparable than Google. Wall Street expects the company grow its EPS by 9% annually and the stock’s 2013 PE ratio is 9. Again, this long-term growth estimate is very optimistic.

Now let’s take a look at low growth stocks because these companies are more predictable. Kimberly-Clark grew its earnings by 4.8% over the past 5 years and it will probably perform at a similar level. Yet, Wall Street analysts expect an EPS growth rate of 10% for the next 5 years and the stock’s 2013 PE ratio is 15. Altria is expected to grow its EPS by 7.6% over the next 5 years and its 2013 PE ratio is 13.

It is clear that the market values at stable/low-growth stocks at 13-15 times earnings. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s current market valuation implies that Apple will earn $30 per share annually. The markets also tell us that Microsoft and Apple are very similar in terms of expected growth rates, i.e. both stocks will experience significant declines in their earnings. I don’t think this is very likely given the strong growth in smart phone and tablet markets. I am very certain that Apple won’t grow its earnings by 20% annually but I don’t think the company’s earnings will shrink by 30% either. I like the 2% dividend yield, share buybacks, and large cash hoard. I am willing to wait until the market acknowledges this.

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