美国房市最糟糕的十大州

States with the Most Miserable Housing Markets

February 29, 2012

10. Maryland
> Housing misery index: 31.6
> Home price decline from peak: 23.7% (12th largest decrease)
> Projected house price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -2.4% (14th largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 6.7% (15th lowest)

Maryland is the wealthiest state in the country in terms of median household income. It also happens to have the third-lowest poverty rate in the country. Despite this relative wealth, the state’s housing market has suffered from a number of problems. Since their peak, home prices in Maryland have dropped 23.7% — the 12th largest decrease in the nation. Home prices are projected to continue to fall through the third quarter of this year. However, from that quarter through the third quarter of 2013, home prices are expected to turn around, increasing 4.4%.

9. Washington
> Housing misery index: 32.8
> Home price decline from peak: 26.6% (8th largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): +0.4% (16th smallest increase)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 8.5% (17th highest)

Since their prerecession peak in the third quarter of 2007, home prices have fallen 26.6% in Washington. This is the eighth-largest drop from peak in the country. In 2011, relatively few home were in foreclosure in the state, standing at 1.3% of the total market. By the third quarter of this year, home prices are projected to increase just 0.4%, one of the smallest increases in the country. However, the following year, the market will finally begin to rebound in the state. Fiserv estimates home values will increase by nearly 10% between Q3 2012 and Q3 2013.

8. Georgia
> Housing misery index: 34.0
> Home price decline from peak: 26.0% (10th largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -1.7% (16th largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 9.7% (8th highest)

Georgia had the fifth-highest rate of foreclosures at the end of 2011, and homes on which owners were delinquent 90 days or more on mortgage payments in the country at 8%. Georgia’s home prices also have fallen 26% since their peak — the 10th-largest drop. This, combined with the fact that home prices are expected to drop by another 1.7% by the third quarter of this year, has caused construction to remain particularly low in many areas. For example, in Atlanta, the state’s largest city, construction continued at less than one-fifth of prehousing bust levels in January of this year, according to Trulia.

7. Rhode Island
> Housing misery index: 34.5
> Home price decline from peak: 27.0% (7th largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -0.5% (23rd largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 10.8% (3rd highest)

Like Michigan, Rhode Island’s economy has continued to suffer from long-term problems, and residents seem to agree. According to Gallup’s Job Creation poll, fewer employers are hiring in the state than anywhere else in the country at the moment. According to a separate Economic Confidence Poll created by Gallup, just 5.4% of those polled in Rhode Island believe the U.S. economy is in good or excellent shape. From their peak in the second quarter of 2006, home values in the state have fallen 27%, the seventh-biggest decline from peak in the country. Median income is above-average in Rhode Island, but unemployment is at 10.8%, the third-highest rate in the country. According to Fiserv, home values in the state are expected to recover at a rate of just 2.5% per year by the end of 2016, the ninth-lowest rate in the country.

6. Idaho
> Housing misery index: 34.5
> Home price decline from peak: 29.3% (6th largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): +4.9% (the largest increase)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 8.4% (18th highest)

Home prices in Idaho did not begin to significantly drop until 2008. From the third quarter of that year through the third quarter of 2011, home prices fell 29.3%, the third-largest peak-to-current decline in the country. From the third quarter of 2010, prices have dropped 8.3%, the second-largest amount. However, the state is forecast to make an exceptional turnaround. By the third quarter of 2012, home prices are projected to recover by 4.9%. Over the next five years, prices are expected to increase by 7% — the largest increase in the country.

5. Michigan
> Housing misery index: 36.6
> Home price decline from peak: 30.1% (5th largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -7.0% (4th largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 9.3% (10th highest)

During the housing boom, Michigan did not experience a period of rapid industrial growth and home construction. But instead of escaping the worst of the housing boom and bust, Michigan’s home prices and general economy continued to worsen during the second half of the decade along with the rest of the country. From peak value in the third quarter of 2005, home values in Michigan have fallen 30.1%. Additionally, unemployment is 9.3%, the 10th highest rate in the U.S.

4. California
> Housing misery index: 53.7
> Home price decline from peak: 46.7% (3rd largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -4.2% (6th largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 11.1% (2nd highest)

California continues to suffer greatly from the recession. The nation’s most populous state has the second-highest unemployment rate in the country at 11.1%. Home prices have dropped 46.7% since their peak, which occurred in the first quarter of 2006 — the third-largest drop in the country. This large decline is the result of the construction boom that took place in the state prior to the housing crisis. Home prices are expected to fall another 4.2% by the third quarter of this year due to an overabundance of cheap housing.

3. Arizona
> Housing misery index: 55.0
> Home price decline from peak: 47.9% (2nd largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -7.2% (3rd largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 8.7% (15th highest)

Arizona also went through a period of significant overbuilding that has left its housing market hurting. Since home prices peaked in the state, they have fallen by 47.9% — the second largest amount in the country. The excess inventory of inexpensive housing is expected to continue to depress prices for some time. Prices are projected to drop another 7.2% from the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2012 — the third largest decrease in the nation. According to Trulia, Phoenix, Arizona’s largest metropolitan area, has one of the highest vacancy rates in the country, at 10.1%.

2. Florida
> Housing misery index: 62.2
> Home price decline from peak: 44.8% (4th largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -8.6% (2nd largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 9.9% (6th highest)

Florida is among the states hurt worst by the housing crisis. Since the third quarter of 2006, when home prices in the state peaked, they have fallen 44.8% — the fourth-largest drop among all states since their respective peaks. The pain is not yet over for Floridians. From the third quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2012, home prices are projected to fall by another 8.6% — the second-largest drop over this period. At the end of 2011, Florida had the highest rate of homes in foreclosure or that have been delinquent in mortgage payments for at least 90 days in the country at 17.4%.

1. Nevada
> Housing misery index: 73.4
> Home price decline from peak: 60.0% (the largest decrease)
> Projected home price change (Q3 2011 – Q3 2012): -13.9% (the largest decrease)
> Unemployment (Dec. 2011): 12.6% (the highest)

Leading up to the recession, Nevada was one of the fastest-growing economies in the country, largely fueled by booming real estate and construction industries. When the housing market collapsed, what had once been a boon became a burden. Home prices in the state have fallen a whopping 60% since their peak in the first quarter of 2006 — the largest drop in the country. Unemployment in the state is also the highest at 12.6%. And 13.4% of homes were in foreclosure or delinquency at the end of 2011 – again, more than anywhere in the country. Home prices are projected to continue to fall by an additional 13.9% through the third quarter of this year, but Fiserv estimates that they will begin to gradually recover over the next five years.

Note: the Index is the sum of peak-to-Q4-2011 price decline (FHFA) and Q4 2011 delinquency (90+ days) plus foreclosure rate (CoreLogic).

Michael B. Sauter, Charles B. Stockdale and Ashley C. Allen