即使在蘋果大跌之後，這些唱衰的人們的目標價，也不過和現在的市場價比較接近：言下之意，這幫人嘮叨了這麼久，也不過就是這個水準。

所以，在股市嘮叨的傢伙，實際上就是一幫以忽悠為主，以正經為輔的“小頑童”而已。對於他們的預測，你不必認真，也不可以認真。

特別是，還有大量的業餘專家，自己從來就不拿自己的資金去下注，卻老是喜歡嘮叨對錯。你可要知道，他們這時候對的可能性更大也是合情合理的：因為，他們沒有放錢進去，所以，更容易心平氣和做判斷。

還記得嗎? 當大家都在“調低”蘋果的股價的時候，當股價在一天天下跌的時候，幾乎所有的人都給了它在700美元左右的目標價！

現在跌下來了，就都“正確”了？

現在，蘋果面臨的問題，實際上比蘋果股價的變化，對於我們投資者的意義更大。

如果你繼續觀察，注意人們觀察的角度變化，注意競爭對手的實力漲跌的改變，再在此基礎上關注股價的變化，你可能會有多得多的收穫。

Netflix 和Priceline的股價變化，也是很有趣的觀察對象。如果你再將它們和蘋果的比較一番，你很可能會獲得更多的感悟。在NFLX跌到50美元的時候，我還曾經在哪裡“東瞧瞧、西看看”，現在，幾乎是在一夜之間，股價快到了150美元了！

當然，蘋果面臨的問題，和這兩家公司的非常不同。大家繼續觀察吧，如果你想成為股市的大家的話。

記住一句話：在股市，沒有永遠的對和錯！最關鍵的，恐怕還是你對與錯的邏輯和原因！

最近有很多值得一讀的關於蘋果的文章。下面這篇就是其中之一。

Why The Apple Inc. Sell-Off Is Just Getting Started

January 25th, 2013

Keith Fitz-Gerald: I’ve made the case several times that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) was over-cooked, most recently last fall when the company was flirting with $700 a share.

Each time I did I was taken to the woodshed by the legions of Apple  fans who couldn’t reconcile their passion with their profits.

iHere we go again…

Following earnings that “beat” and revenue that fell short, the company dropped $48 billion, or roughly 10%, in afterhours trading on Wednesday. And still more on Thursday in early trading.

I think this is just the beginning of a protracted sell- off and my argument really isn’t that fancy. In fact, it comes down to two very simple points:

1.   The iPhone isn’t the only game in town;

2.   The iPad isn’t the only tablet, either.

Competition is heating up around the planet and that’s leading to significant margin compression in Apple’s product set. Even if the Street has not yet recognized this explicitly, I think that it’s only a matter of time before it does.

I know Apple’s just beaten the Street yet again, at least when it comes to earnings ($13.07 billion versus $13.06 billion a year ago), and that revenue increased 18% to $54.51 billion versus $46.33 billion a year ago.

But, so what. 

No business – I don’t care how hyped or how rabid the customer base is – can escape the inevitable impact on margins and revenue that comes from higher competition, higher costs and fickle consumers who are less and less enamored with all things “i” every quarter.

Component costs are already high and getting higher. Growth is stalling. It’s “over owned,” to borrow a phrase from DoubleLine CEO Jefffrey Gundlach, who believes like I do that the stock will trade lower this quarter. His target is $425 while mine is a bit lower at $400 and change.

According Bloomberg, Wednesday’s numbers were the slowest growth figures Apple has posted in 14 quarters.

The Apple Double Whammy

Like other manufacturing concerns, the double whammy means that the ongoing margins associated with each new Apple product are becoming smaller. Over time, of course, those go down as production lines ramp up and economies of scale come into effect, but that’s really a short-term game. Apple cannot perpetually introduce products with rising costs and reasonably expect the markets to absorb them as fast as they once did.

If costs are rising faster than revenues over time, sooner or later the two flip and earnings get nailed. There’s not a company in the world that can escape this eventuality.

Additionally, CEO Tim Cook is finding out the hard way that Steve Jobs’ business model really doesn’t account for much absent Jobs himself. Coming into Wednesday’s announcement, t he company had missed estimates for 3 of the past 5 quarters. Now, this makes 4 for 6.

Apple has changed. When Jobs ran the place, it oozed innovation. Now, it oozes MBAs and it risks the same sort of “deadening” process that has plagued Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) since Steve Ballmer took over.

Then there’s the product suite itself. This time last year the hype was all about stuff that didn’t exist. Somehow, at least according to Apple anyway, the uninitiated masses were just going to fall all over themselves with mini-iPads and yet more iPhones that are comparable to offerings from other companies like Samsung and Motorola and driven by Google’s And roid platform.

That’s part of the problem. In order to recapture what it used to be, Apple products shouldn’t be comparable to anything.

They should be game changers. It’s no wonder people haven’t swarmed the stores like they used to. How many mini- anythings does anyone need?

At some point, a smart phone is a smart phone is a smart phone…until Apple makes it something else or, as the risk is now, somebody beats them to it. I’ll reserve judgment for Apple TV, but so far it, too, is just vaporware.

So How and When Do You Short Apple?

That depends on your perspective. Tactically speaking, Apple’s a short-term trader’s dream.

Expensive and marginable, it moves a lot. That means there’s opportunity in both directions.

If you’re one to trade earnings announcements, here’s something to consider. Birinyi Associates noted to CNBC that Apple stock has “gained 70% of the time in afterhours trading on the day it reported” but 68% of the time it’s closed lower on the following day by a half a percent on average. It’s already tanked as of press time, so these numbers appear pretty much worthless except as a frame of reference.

I think the more attractive price action on the short side is longer-term. I expect Apple’s shares to generally trade lower through the balance of the year.

Absent some real innovation, I believe the iPad /iPhone combination will continue to lose valuable consumer ground both in terms of appeal and utility. I see this translating into reduced product appeal that directly impacts product introduction cycles and slows revenue growth. 

In that sense, the real news is not what happened this earnings cycle, but the ones that are two — even three –quarters from now, when gross margins are under real pressure.

It’s no wonder, under the circumstances, that Apple guided lower again and declined to provide a profit forecast. I think they know it, too.