发表评论-汪翔-万维博客-万维读者网（电脑版）

我还记得，在2007年，也就是金融危机爆发前夕的那个夏天，在飞机停留在日本成田机场时，曾经遇到了一位来自佛罗里达的朋友。当时，这位搞建筑设计的朋友，正在雄心勃勃的投资地产，买了一大块地，兴高采烈地合计着，如何通过卖楼花来获得资金，建公寓，打捞一笔。当时，我自己都快被他的兴高采烈给说服，跟着他一起，跑去佛罗里达“淘金”发财。

在那个年代，佛罗里达的就业率高，想在那里有个落脚点的投资客，也很多。买个公寓，既能自己享受，还有不错的租金收入，最终还能通过房价上升大赚一笔。如此美好的事情，当然是有大量的人喜欢做的。这种情形，颇有点一段时间里，发生在中国海南的那种房地产里面热乎乎的势头。自然，当美国各地的资金都集中向一个州移动的时候，那里的房价也没有不上涨的道理。

只是，金融危机来的似乎是“太快”了一点。一晃之间，都已经是四年过去了，这些当初泡沫巨大的房地产市场，目前还依然是生活在“水深火热”之中。如果你觉得美国经济还有再次腾飞的可能性，那么，在这种时候，适度的投资加州和佛罗里达州部分地区的房地产，可能也是一个不错的机会。只是，你不太可能再通过玩“空手套白狼”的“零首付”游戏，来当富翁了。

我身边一个朋友的经验是：在福罗里达州买个公寓，支付30%的头款之后，除了你每年可以使用那么几个星期之外，通过中介出租，拉平支付和收入，还是有不错机会的。如果是这样的话，由于你支付的房价已经比高峰时低了一半，你在下一轮经济腾飞时小发一笔的可能性还是比较大的。只是，你可千万不要去买“时间分享”的单元！

我身边有不少的朋友，在金融危机之前，个个身价不错，金融危机之中由于眼热人家“富裕”太快，自己也一头扎进了在房地产市场淘金的热潮之中。结果，很多人最终要么是选择放弃一切，要么是干脆来个破产了结，从头开始。幸亏是生活在美国，破产之后可以一了百了，没有个“父债子还”之类的无休无止的纠结存在。

这样做的，既有普通的亚裔朋友，也有普通的非亚裔人士。这些人经历这样的磨难，说来说去，还是因为受人蛊惑的结果。那时候，到处招摇过市的“骗子”实在是太多。连我一位最不可能被骗的朋友，也曾经花了1000刀美金，买了一套“零首付发财之道”的资料读来读去，甚至是夜不能寐。值得庆幸的是，我的劝告最终发挥了作用：这个世界上如果有容易发财的道道，又怎么会那么容易的轮到你我呢。

世界上发财的道道有，而且很多，这个我相信。但是，我从来就不相信有轻易获得的富有。富有来自你的勤奋和努力的付出，来自你智慧的善用，来自抓住普通人看不见的机会，来自与众不同的选择行为的结果，而不是随大流的好运。

Cities with the Most Homes Underwater

May 25, 2012 by 247wallst

Mortgage debt continues to be a major issue in the United States, nearly six years after home prices peaked, according to a report released Thursday by online real estate site Zillow. Americans continue to owe more on their homes than they are worth. Nearly one in three mortgages are underwater, amounting to more than 15 million homes and a total negative equity of $1.19 trillion.

In some of America’s largest metropolitan regions, however, the housing crash dealt a far worse blow. In these areas — most of which are in California, Florida and the southwest — home values were cut in half, unemployment skyrocketed, and 50% to 70% of borrowers now find themselves with a home worth less than the value of their mortgage. 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the 100 largest housing markets and identified the 10 with the highest percentage of homes with underwater mortgages.

Svenja Gudell, senior economist at Zillow, explained in an interview with 24/7 Wall St. that the markets with the highest rates of underwater borrowers are in trouble now because of the rampant growth seen in these cities prior to the recession. Once home prices peaked, which was primarily in late 2005 through 2006, all but one of these 10 housing markets lost at least 50% of their median home value.

Making matters worse for families with high negative equity in these markets is the increased unemployment. “If you have a whole lot of unemployment in an area, you’re more likely to see home values continue to decline in the area as well,” says Gudell. While in 2007 many of these markets had average or below average unemployment rates, the recession took a heavy toll on their economies. By 2011, eight of the 10 markets had unemployment rates above 10%, and three — all in California — had unemployment rates of above 16%, nearly double the national average.

24/7 Wall St. used Zillow’s first-quarter 2012 negative equity report to identify the 10 housing markets — out of the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the country — with the highest percentage of underwater mortgages. Zillow also provided us with the decline in home values in these markets from prerecession peak values, the total negative equity value in these markets and the percentage of homes underwater that have been delinquent on payments for 90 days or more.

These are the cities with the most homes underwater.

10. Orlando, Fla.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 53.9%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 205,369
> Median home value: 113,800
> Decline from prerecession peak: -55.9%
> Unemployment rate: 10.4% (25th highest)

In 2012, Orlando moved into the top 10 underwater housing markets, bumping Fresno, Calif., to number 11. From its prerecession peak in June 2006, home prices fell 55.9% to $113,800, a loss of roughly $90,000. In 2007, the unemployment rate in the region was just 3.7%, the 17th-lowest rate among the 100 largest metros. By 2011, that rate had increased to 10.4%, the 25th highest. As of the first quarter of this year, there were more than 205,000 underwater mortgages in the region, with total negative equity of $16.7 billion.

9. Atlanta, Ga.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 55.5%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 581,831
> Median home value: $107,500
> Decline from prerecession peak: 38.8%
> Unemployment rate: 9.6% (37th highest)

Atlanta is the largest city on this list and the eighth-largest metropolitan area in the U.S. But of all the cities with the most underwater mortgages, it has the lowest median home value. In the area, 55.5% of homes have a negative equity value. With more than 500,000 homes with underwater mortgages, the city’s total negative home equity is in excess of $38 billion. Over 48,000 of these underwater homeowners, or nearly 10%, are delinquent by at least 90 days in their payments, which is also especially troubling. With home prices down 38.8% since June, 2007, the Atlanta area certainly qualifies as one of the cities hit hardest by the 2008 housing crisis.

8. Phoenix, Ariz.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 55.5%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 430,527
> Median home value: $128,000
> Decline from prerecession peak: 54.2%
> Unemployment rate: 8.6% (44th lowest)

At 55.5%, Phoenix has the same percentage of borrowers with underwater mortgages as Atlanta. Though Phoenix’s median home value is $21,500 greater than Atlanta’s, it experienced a far-greater decline in home prices from their prerecession peak in June 2007 of 54.2%. This has led to a total negative equity value of almost $39 billion. The unemployment rate also has skyrocketed in the Phoenix area from 3.2% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2011.

7. Visalia, Calif.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 57.7%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 33,220
> Median home value: $110,500
> Decline from prerecession peak: 51.7%
> Unemployment rate: 16.6% (3rd highest)

Visalia is far smaller than Atlanta or Phoenix and has less than a 10th the number of homes with underwater mortgages. Nonetheless, the city has been especially damaged by a poor housing market. Home values have fallen dramatically since before the recession, and the unemployment rate, at 16.6% in the first quarter of 2012, is third-highest among the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, behind only Stockton and Modesto. Presently, almost 58% of homes are underwater, with these homes carrying a total negative equity of $2.6 billion dollars.

6. Vallejo, Calif.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 60.3%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 44,526
> Median home value: $186,200
> Decline from prerecession peak: 60.6%
> Unemployment rate: 11.4% (16th highest)

In the Vallejo metropolitan area, more than 60% of the region’s 73,800 homeowners are underwater. This is largely due to a 60.6% decline in home values in the region from prerecession highs. Through the first quarter of this year, homes in the region fell from a median value of more than $300,000 to just $186,200. Of those homes with underwater mortgages, more than 10% have been delinquent on mortgage payments for 90 days or more.

5. Stockton, Calif.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 60.3%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 60,349
> Median home value: $146,500
> Decline from prerecession peak: 64.3%
> Unemployment rate: 16.8% (tied for highest)

With an unemployment rate of 16.8%, Stockton is tied for the highest rate among the 100 largest metropolitan areas. Few cities have been hit harder by the sinking of the housing market than Stockton, where 60.3% of home mortgages are underwater. Though there are only 100,014 houses with mortgages in Stockton, 60,348 of these are underwater and have a total negative home equity of slightly more than $6.9 billion. Meaning, on average, homeowners in Stockton owe at least $100,000 more than their homes are worth.

4. Modesto, Calif.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 60.3%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 46,598
> Median home value: $130,600
> Decline from prerecession peak: 64.5%
> Unemployment rate: 16.8% (tied for highest)

Since peaking in December 2005, home prices in Modesto have plunged 64.5%. This is the largest collapse in prices of any large metro area examined. As a result, 46,598 of 77,222 home mortgages in Modesto are underwater. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 16.8% in 2011. This number was 7.9 percentage points above the national average of 8.9% and almost double Modesto’s 2007 unemployment rate of 8.7%.

3. Bakersfield, Calif.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 60.5%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 70,947
> Median home value: $116,700
> Decline from prerecession peak: 57.0%
> Unemployment rate: 14.9% (5th highest)

From its peak in May 2006, the median home value in Bakersfield has plummeted from more than $200,000 to just $116,700, or a 57% loss of value. From 2007 through 2011, the unemployment rate increased from 8.2% to 14.9% — the fifth-highest rate in the country. To date, more than 70,000 homes in the region have underwater mortgages, with total negative equity of just over $6 billion.

2. Reno, Nev.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 61.7%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 46,115
> Median home value: $150,600
> Decline from prerecession peak: 58.3%
> Unemployment rate: 13.1%

There are fewer than 75,000 households in Reno, Nevada. Yet 46,115 home mortgages in the city are underwater, accounting for 61.7% of mortgaged homes. From January 2006 through the first quarter of 2012, home prices were more than halved, and negative home equity reached $4.39 billion. Additionally, the unemployment rate almost tripled in rising from 4.5% in 2007 to 13.1% by 2011. In 2007, Reno had the 54th-worst unemployment rate among the 100 largest metros. By 2007, Reno had the eighth-worst unemployment rate.

1. Las Vegas, Nev.
> Pct. homes w/underwater mortgages: 71%
> Number of mortgages underwater: 236,817
> Median home value: $111,600
> Decline from prerecession peak: 63.2%
> Unemployment rate: 13.9%

At 71%, no city has a greater percentage of homes with underwater mortgages than Las Vegas. The area with the second-worst percentage of underwater mortgages, Reno, has less than 62% mortgages with negative. The corrosive effects the housing crisis had on Las Vegas are evident in the more than 200,000 home mortgages that are underwater, 14.3% of which are at least 90 days delinquent on payments. Additionally, home values have dropped 63.2% from their prerecession peak, the third-greatest decline among the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. Largely because of the collapse of the area’s housing market, unemployment in the Las Vegas area has soared. In 2007, the unemployment rate was 4.7%, only marginally different from the nation’s 4.6% rate. Yet by 2011, the unemployment rate had increased to 13.9%, considerably higher than the nationwide 8.9% unemployment rate.

Michael B. Sauter

Cities With The Most Homes In Foreclosure

May 22, 2012 by 247wallst

According to data released last week, the worst effects of the housing crisis are beginning to wind down. RealtyTrac’s latest report shows the number of foreclosures in the U.S. in April is down 13% to 188,780 from 219,258 a year ago. However, some of the largest cities in the U.S. continue to lag behind the rest of the country, and still have long to go before the housing crash has fully run its course.

RealtyTrac published the number of new home foreclosures in April in the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. Of those 50 areas, ten had more than double the national foreclosure rate, which is one out of every 698 new homes. In California’s Inland Empire metropolitan area, the rate was more than triple that. Using RealtyTrac’s foreclosure rates and and home price data from Fiserv Case-Shiller, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed the ten metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates.

The continuing high rates of foreclosures in some areas is a disturbing trend, says RealtyTrac’s vice president, Daren Blomquist. Although the national foreclosure rate appears to have peaked, he explains, the massive number of remaining properties yet to be foreclosed may continue to hurt the U.S. market in the long-term. The large number of new foreclosures “means that distressed property sales will continue to represent a large portion of overall sales for at least the remainder of this year, which in turn will keep a lid on any robust home price recovery,” Blomquist says.

After reviewing the markets with the highest foreclosure rates, it is clear that regions with the most foreclosures to date are the ones worst affected by the housing crisis. Seven of the ten metro areas on this list had among the top ten largest declines in home value from their pre-recession peaks. In six of the ten regions, houses lost more than half their value in less than six years. In Las Vegas, home prices plummeted 61.8% between the beginning of 2006 and the end of last year.

While all ten metropolitan areas on this list have a high foreclosure rate compared to the national average, in some cities foreclosures have begun to decline, while in others they continue to increase. For example, Of these regions with the highest foreclosure ,rates the number of new foreclosures fell by 44% in Phoenix and by 66% in Las Vegas in one year. Meanwhile, foreclosures rose 38% in Miami and 59% in Tampa.

24/7 Wall St. spoke with Trulia’s chief economist Jed Kolko. According to Kolko, while the overall decline in home prices is the major underlying force behind these areas’ high foreclosure rates, it is the legal system of the regions’ respective states that is affecting whether foreclosures are still rising or declining. Florida has a long foreclosure process, which involves the courts on many occasions, while Nevada’s process is much shorter and non-judicial. Florida is therefore far behind in liquidating its foreclosure inventory, while Nevada is far along the process.

24/7 Wall St. examined RealtyTrac’s latest foreclosure figures of new homes for April, 2012, as well as the changes in the number of new foreclosures from a month prior and a year prior. In addition, we reviewed historical, current, and projected home price changes, provided by Fiserv-Case Shiller.

These are the ten cities with the most homes in foreclosure

10. Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 347 homes
> Number of homes: 942,312 (24th most)
> Foreclosures (April, 2012): 2,717 (16th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 54.2% (6th largest decline)

Median home prices in the Orlando area fell by 54.2% from their peak in the second quarter of 2006 through the end of 2011. Of the 50 most populous metro regions in the U.S., the Orlando-Kissimmee area has the tenth-highest foreclosure rate in April of one in every 347 homes. Orlando had 2,717 new homes in foreclosure this past April, up 12.9% from the 2,406 in April, 2011. The forecast for the future is similarly bleak. Fiserv projects Orlando homes to continue to lose value between the fourth quarter of this year and the fourth quarter of 2013, predicting a 1% decline in prices over that time period.

9. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet,IL-IN-WI
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 321 homes
> Number of homes: 3,797,247 (3rd most)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 11,840 (The most)
> Home price decline from peak: 36.8% (12th largest decline)

From their peak in early 2007, home prices in Chicago fell 36.8% through the end of 2011. In April, the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet metro area had the largest number of new homes in foreclosure among the 50 largest MSAs, at 11,840. This represented an increase of 25.5% from April 2011 when 9,433 homes entered foreclosure. However, the number of foreclosures represents a 7.63% decline from March, when the Chicago area also led all metropolitan areas with 12,818 foreclosures. Another positive sign for Chicagoans: home prices are projected to rise 6.3% annually through 2016, according to Fiserv.

8. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,FL
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 315 homes
> Number of homes: 1,353,158 (17th most)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 4,295 (8th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 48% (8th largest decline)

Residents of the Tampa, FL metro area watched the median home price in the region fall to $137,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011 — a 48% drop from its peak. The region recorded 4,295 foreclosures in April 2012. To make matters worse, that number is up from the April 2011 figure. Last April, only 2,701 new area homes were in foreclosure, meaning that foreclosures increased by 59% the past year. One in every 315 homes in this MSA had a foreclosure start this past April.

7. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,AZ
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 313 homes
> Number of homes: 1,798,501 (12th most)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 5,755 (6th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 56% (3rd largest decline)

Home prices in the Phoenix region — the country’s twelfth-largest metropolitan area by housing units — declined by 56% from their 2006 peaks through the end of 2011. Although this accounted for the third-largest decline in home prices amongst all metropolitan areas, the Phoenix region posted a 22.64% decline in foreclosures from March, as the number of new foreclosed homes fell from 7,439 to 5,755. Likewise, in the last year, the number of foreclosure starts in the area fell by 44.44%, from 10,358 in April 2011 to 5,755 this past April.

6. Salt Lake City, UT
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 309 homes
> Number of homes:410,031 (1st least)
> Foreclosures (April, 2012): 1,326 (23rd least)
> Home price decline from peak: 19.3% (25th largest decline)

Home prices in the Salt Lake City area declined by roughly 20% from their peak in 2007 to the fourth quarter in 2011, which is a modest decline compared to other regions on this list. Nevertheless, foreclosure rates were higher than all but five of the largest metros in the country. Compared to the 1,406 foreclosures in April of 2011, April 2012’s foreclosures declined by 5.7%. This metro area is one of the few on the list that analysts are bullish about; home prices are projected to increase by 9.5% from this year’s fourth quarter to the fourth quarter in 2013.

5. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta,GA
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 298 homes
> Number of homes: 2,165,495 (9th most)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 7,271 (4th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 35% (14th largest decline)

As of the fourth quarter of 2011, home values in Atlanta fell by 35% from their peak. The Atlanta area has the ninth most housing units of any region on the list, at 2,165,495, and the median price of these homes was just $110,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011. To make matters worse, the area’s April 2012 foreclosure figure was a staggering 7,271 homes — the fourth most among the nation’s largest cities. Things may be on the upswing though — from the number of homes in foreclosure fell by 11% from the prior month.

4. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville,CA
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 277 homes
> Number of homes: 871,793 (23rd fewest)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 3,147 (12th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 54.7% (5th largest)

The first California city on this list, the Sacramento-Arden-Arcade Roseville area had one in 277 homes in foreclosure in April. With home prices down 54.7% from their high at the end of 2005, the Sacramento area registered the fifth-largest decline in home prices. The area had the twelfth-most foreclosures in the U.S. However, foreclosures are down by 39.01% from last year, when April 2011 had 5,160 homes in foreclosure. Additionally, the number of foreclosures also decreased by 26.7% from the previous month, from 4,294 to 3,147. Fiserv expects home prices in the area to rise 6.3% annually through the fourth quarter of 2016.

3. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Pompano Beach,FL

> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 273 homes
> Number of homes: 2,464,417 (5th most)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 9,031 (3rd most)
> Home price decline from peak: 54.2% (7th largest decline)

The Miami metro region topped all Florida regions in the number of new foreclosures. It also ranks third in new foreclosure rates among the 50 largest metros with 9,031 foreclosures in April, 2012 — a rate of one in 273. While foreclosures in the area decreased between March, 2012, and April, 2012, to the tune of 9.2%, the future appears gloomy. Prices in this region are forecast to fall another 3.8% between the fourth quarters of 2012 and 2013.

2. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 249 homes
> Number of homes: 840,343 (22nd fewest)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 3,378 (10th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 61.8% (the largest decline)

Home prices in Las Vegas, the poster child of the housing crisis, plunged by 61.8% from their peak in early 2006 through 2011 — the greatest decline of any of the nation’s 50 largest metros. Although new foreclosures in the Las Vegas-Paradise region declined by 66.1% to 3,378 over the past year, the number of foreclosures in April represents a slight increase over March, when 3,301 new homes were in foreclosure. Making matters worse, prices are expected to fall by another 3.3% between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the fourth quarter 2013, according to Fiserv.

1. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario,CA
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 213 homes
> Number of homes:1,500,344 (14th most)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 7,049 (5th most)
> Home price decline from peak: -56.6% (2nd largest decline)

As of the fourth quarter of 2011, prices in the Riverside metro area fell by 56.6% from their peak, the second largest drop among top-50 metros. In addition, this region is first in terms of now foreclosure rate, at one in 213. While the number of homes (1.5 million) ranks 14th of the 50 largest regions, the area’s new foreclosure count for April, 2012, reached 7,049 — fifth highest overall. It appears, however, that, the situation is improving; between March, 2012 and April, 2012, foreclosures dropped 10.8%.

-Michael B. Sauter

美国最不安全的汽车(附图)