看跌苹果的七条理由 这段时间,苹果的股票上升的太快,太高。很多人开始担心是不是有泡沫?下面这位的七条理由也不是没有道理。大家看看再说吧。他的意思是:短期有回调的可能性,如果你能够等到回调时再买入,价格会更好一些。同时,苹果也有苹果独特的风险,也不是一只绝对安全的股票。世界上没有一家公司是绝对安全的。 连接: 人们对苹果的价值评估是不是错的 7 Reasons to Short Apple Stock (Nasdaq: AAPL) I haven’t spoken with Mr. Kass so I can’t comment on his current thinking nor the specifics of his trade, but here are mine: 1. 在形象上和当初纳斯达克的泡沫很相似,给人太多的想象空间。The company has single-handedly repeated the bubble curve of the Nasdaq (NASDAQ:QQQ) run up. That leaves a lot of empty space to the downside. 2. 股价的上升靠的是新产品的投放,而非核心产品线的开发。Apple is a “fad” or a “hit” company, meaning that its price seems to correlate to new product launches rather than the sustainable development of key product lines. Companies that do that tend to fall back from orbit at some point – especially in the tech world. Palm and Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) are two that come to mind. 3. 乔布斯已走,后来者很难创造他那样的辉煌,也难以保住他创造的奇迹能够得以持续。When great leaders are gone, their legacies can struggle. While Apple has stood up so far following Steve Jobs’ unfortunate death, I can only wonder, as many in the tech community are wondering, how deep and how far out his thinking will live on. Is it one product cycle, two cycles? Nobody knows. But we do know that Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) became a very different company after Bill Gates stepped aside. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) also flatlined three or four cycles after Andy Grove’s departure from day-to-day operations. 4. 看跌的人太少。一旦看跌的人开始大兵团出动,就是大幅下跌的开始。Apple’s short interest of only 9.8 million shares is very low considering the company’s three-month average daily trading volume is 18.2 million shares and the company’s float is 931.8 million shares. 5. 投资社区看好公司前景的人太多。当大家都朝一个方向走的时候,很可能,朝反方向走的人就能够获得更好的业绩。The analyst community is almost completely positive. That’s usually a sign of two things: a) that they’re soft peddling opposing trades from other parts of the “shops” they work for or b) that they want a run up to maximize profits from positions they already hold. Either way, many have been tremendously wrong in their sales projections in recent quarters, understating anticipated results by as much as 30%-40% – a factor also noted by Kass in his trade set up analysis. Therefore, I am skeptical that they are raising numbers again. 6. 苹果的边际利润率实在是高的离谱,这样的垄断利润是难以持续的。 Apple’s profit margins are unbelievably high at a time when the rest of the economy lurches along. While that’s not a bad thing in isolation, I have a hard time believing that Apple can remain so far out of line if for no other reason that what goes up must come down eventually. And, since the road higher is far more unlikely for the rest of the markets, it is logical that Apple likely heads lower in the short term. 7. 物极必反,正春风得意的苹果,就像不久前的薄熙来一样,很可能厄运也离自己不远。Apple’s fundamentals may soften. There are lots of reasons to love Apple but there are just as many reasons things may not be what they seem. If the economy worsens just how many people are going to buy “gee-whiz” technology beyond the hard core Apple-heads? Is there an Apple-killer in somebody’s garage right now? Anti-trust investigations and supply problems are also big what ifs at the moment. Even a carrier failure could rock Apple because it may be their subsidies that keep Apple’s costs down and profits high. |