Home Depot的投资价值分析

这篇文章比较详细地分析了Home Depot公司的投资价值。这家公司在过去的几十年之间，曾经来忠实的长期投资者带来了无数的财富。即使是在以房贷为基础导致的金融危机之后，跌幅也还是相对比较能够让人忍受。

读读下面的文章，对于相对比较保守的投资者，可能会有一些启发。

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Let Home Depot Come Down Before Buying

Nov 25 2013, 10:44

The last time I wrote about The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) I bought a small batch in it stating that I thought I could get it at a lower price. The stock dropped to a low of $72.70 a couple of days later and shot up, never looking back. Since the last article it actually shot up 7.14% versus the 10.06% gain the S&P 500 (SPY) posted. Home Depot is a home improvement retailer. On November 19, 2013, the company reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings of $0.95 per share, which beat the consensus of analysts' estimates by $0.06. In the past year the company's stock is up 27.46% excluding dividends (up 29.48% including dividends), and is losing to the S&P 500, which has gained 32.71% in the same time frame. With all this in mind, I'd like to take a moment to evaluate the stock on a fundamental, financial, and technical basis to see if it's worth buying more shares of the company right now for the services sector of my dividend portfolio.

Fundamentals

The company currently trades at a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 23.36, which is fairly priced, but I mainly like to purchase a stock based on where the company is going in the future as opposed to what it has done in the past. On that note, the 1-year forward-looking P/E ratio of 18.12 is currently fairly priced for the future in terms of the right here, right now. The 1-year PEG ratio (1.28), which measures the ratio of the price you're currently paying for the trailing 12-month earnings on the stock while dividing it by the earnings growth of the company for a specified amount of time (I like looking at a 1-year horizon), tells me that the company is fairly priced based on a 1-year EPS growth rate of 18.2%. The company has great near-term future earnings growth potential with a projected EPS growth rate of 18.2%. In addition, the company has great long-term future earnings growth potential with a projected EPS growth rate of 16.8%. Below is a comparison table of the fundamental metrics for the company from the time I wrote the last article to what it is right now.

Financials

On a financial basis, the things I look for are the dividend payouts, return on assets, equity and investment. The company pays a dividend of 1.97% with a payout ratio of 46% of trailing 12-month earnings while sporting return on assets, equity and investment values of 11.8%, 29.6% and 17.8%, respectively, which are all respectable values, but nothing to go writing home about. Because I believe the market may get a bit choppy here and would like a safety play, I don't believe the 1.97% yield of this company is good enough for me to take shelter in for the time being. Below is a comparison table of the financial metrics for the company from the time of the last article to what it is right now.

Technicals

Looking first at the relative strength index chart (RSI) at the top, I see the stock falling from overbought territory with a value of 59.99 and downward trajectory, indicating a bearish pattern. To confirm that, I will look at the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) chart next. I see that the black line is above the red line with the divergence bars decreasing in height, also indicating a bearish pattern. As for the stock price itself ($79.18), I'm looking at $81.60 to act as resistance and the 20-day simple moving average (currently $77.72) to act as support for a risk/reward ratio, which plays out to be -1.84% to 3.05%.

Recent News

1.  The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share with an ex-date of 03Dec13 and pay date of 19Dec13.

2.  According to the Census Bureau retail sales showed general demand weakness for the month of October especially with the building materials and garden equipment category of which Home Depot is a part of is being a notable laggard.

3.  The quarterly earnings announcement provided some optimism or investors when Home Depot not only beat estimates, but raised its full-year outlook. Demand across all categories was strong as same store sales rose 10% on a two-year comparison.

Conclusion

The home retail duopoly story of Home Depot and Lowe's (LOW) could not be any more different from each other than they are. Home Depot reported a quarter with a beat and raise while Lowe's missed estimates. Home Depot is definitely best in class between the two. Keeping that in mind, I believe the stock is fairly valued based on future earnings and growth potential. Financially the company is performing well but the dividend yield has come down a bit albeit at the expense of a higher share price which I will take any day of the week. On a technical basis I believe the stock is due for a pullback in spite of the excellent earnings announcement. What troubles me for now is that the stock is fairly valued, the dividend is too tiny to make me hide out in this name, and the bearish technicals, it's for these reasons I will not be adding to my position now because I think I can get it at a lower price.