Home Depot的投资价值分析
这篇文章比较详细地分析了Home
Depot公司的投资价值。这家公司在过去的几十年之间,曾经来忠实的长期投资者带来了无数的财富。即使是在以房贷为基础导致的金融危机之后,跌幅也还是相对比较能够让人忍受。
读读下面的文章,对于相对比较保守的投资者,可能会有一些启发。
转载文章:
Let Home Depot Come Down Before Buying
Nov
25 2013, 10:44
The
last time I wrote about The
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) I bought a small batch in it stating that I thought I
could get it at a lower price. The stock dropped to a low of $72.70 a couple of
days later and shot up, never looking back. Since the last article it actually
shot up 7.14% versus the 10.06% gain the S&P 500 (SPY) posted.
Home Depot is a home improvement retailer. On November 19, 2013, the company
reported fiscal fourth quarter earnings of $0.95 per share, which beat the
consensus of analysts' estimates by $0.06. In the past year the company's stock
is up 27.46% excluding dividends (up 29.48% including dividends), and is losing
to the S&P 500, which has gained 32.71% in the same time frame. With all
this in mind, I'd like to take a moment to evaluate the stock on a fundamental,
financial, and technical basis to see if it's worth buying more shares of the
company right now for the services sector of my dividend portfolio.
Fundamentals
The company
currently trades at a trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 23.36, which is fairly
priced, but I mainly like to purchase a stock based on where the company is
going in the future as opposed to what it has done in the past. On that note,
the 1-year forward-looking P/E ratio of 18.12 is currently fairly priced for
the future in terms of the right here, right now. The 1-year PEG ratio (1.28),
which measures the ratio of the price you're currently paying for the trailing
12-month earnings on the stock while dividing it by the earnings growth of the
company for a specified amount of time (I like looking at a 1-year horizon),
tells me that the company is fairly priced based on a 1-year EPS growth rate of
18.2%. The company has great near-term future earnings growth potential with a
projected EPS growth rate of 18.2%. In addition, the company has great
long-term future earnings growth potential with a projected EPS growth rate of
16.8%. Below is a comparison table of the fundamental metrics for the company
from the time I wrote the last article to what it is right now.
Article Date
|
Price ($)
|
TTM P/E
|
Fwd P/E
|
EPS Next YR ($)
|
Target Price ($)
|
PEG
|
EPS next YR (%)
|
04Sep13
|
74.10
|
21.97
|
17.12
|
4.35
|
65
|
1.23
|
17.91
|
23Nov13
|
79.18
|
23.36
|
18.12
|
4.37
|
65
|
1.28
|
18.2
|
Financials
On a financial
basis, the things I look for are the dividend payouts, return on assets, equity
and investment. The company pays a dividend of 1.97% with a payout ratio of 46%
of trailing 12-month earnings while sporting return on assets, equity and investment
values of 11.8%, 29.6% and 17.8%, respectively, which are all respectable
values, but nothing to go writing home about. Because I believe the market may
get a bit choppy here and would like a safety play, I don't believe the 1.97%
yield of this company is good enough for me to take shelter in for the time
being. Below is a comparison table of the financial metrics for the company
from the time of the last article to what it is right now.
Article Date
|
Yield (%)
|
Payout TTM (%)
|
ROA (%)
|
ROE (%)
|
ROI (%)
|
04Sep13
|
2.09
|
42.7
|
11.8
|
29.6
|
17.8
|
23Nov13
|
1.97
|
46
|
11.8
|
29.6
|
17.8
|
Technicals
Looking first at the
relative strength index chart (RSI) at the top, I see the stock falling from
overbought territory with a value of 59.99 and downward trajectory, indicating
a bearish pattern. To confirm that, I will look at the moving average
convergence-divergence (MACD) chart next. I see that the black line is above
the red line with the divergence bars decreasing in height, also indicating a
bearish pattern. As for the stock price itself ($79.18), I'm looking at $81.60
to act as resistance and the 20-day simple moving average (currently $77.72) to
act as support for a risk/reward ratio, which plays out to be -1.84% to 3.05%.
Recent News
1. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share with an ex-date of
03Dec13 and pay date of 19Dec13.
2. According to the Census Bureau retail sales showed general demand weakness for the month of October especially
with the building materials and garden equipment category of which Home Depot
is a part of is being a notable laggard.
3. The quarterly earnings announcement provided some optimism or investors when Home Depot not only
beat estimates, but raised its full-year outlook. Demand across all categories
was strong as same store sales rose 10% on a two-year comparison.
Conclusion
The
home retail duopoly story of Home Depot and Lowe's (LOW) could not
be any more different from each other than they are. Home Depot reported a
quarter with a beat and raise while Lowe's missed estimates. Home Depot is
definitely best in class between the two. Keeping that in mind, I believe the
stock is fairly valued based on future earnings and growth potential.
Financially the company is performing well but the dividend yield has come down
a bit albeit at the expense of a higher share price which I will take any day
of the week. On a technical basis I believe the stock is due for a pullback in
spite of the excellent earnings announcement. What troubles me for now is that
the stock is fairly valued, the dividend is too tiny to make me hide out in
this name, and the bearish technicals, it's for these reasons I will not be
adding to my position now because I think I can get it at a lower price.
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