| | 高盛欺诈案跟踪报道
从今天开始，我专门开辟了一个高盛欺骗案专题跟踪报道。我的主要动机还是收集和提供信息，那些我认为有些价值或者与众不同的消息。这里提供的许多观点只是作者自己的个人看法，并不一定代表我的意见。 对于高盛和鲍尔森“同流合污”欺骗投资者的过程的深入理解，你恐怕得先好好读读我最近在商务印书馆出版的那本《危机与败局》了。在那里，我对美国房市泡沫产生的历史根源和现实必然性做了深入系统的分析，是基于非常严格的经济数 给出的。这也是我第一次站在经济学家的角度来观察和思考问题。其它大多数时间，我都是站在投资者的角度来看问题的。 更为重要的是，我对CDO，CDS，ABS这些金融衍生品的概念也进行了系统全面的介绍，并且还在这种解释之後，系统地分析了这种种投资手段的致命弱点，和这些弱点之所以没有被投资者注意到的内在原因。其中就包括投资银行和信用评级机腹为了一己之利对投资者的故意忽悠。对于鲍尔森大赚卖空次贷债券钱的过程、手段，也进行了详细的分析和说明。在那种分析过程中，我已经意识到，在很多地方，鲍尔森似乎是在有意识地掩盖什厶。因为，根 他所提供的信息，获得那厶巨大的利润，似乎不是那厶一回事。一方面，风险应该比他自己所描述的要大很多，再者，他所说出来的手段似乎还远远不够。作为一个投资者，我对此不是太能理解。而一般来说，基于普通的逻辑难以理解的投资手段，很可能就是忽悠的结果。不要相信在金融投资领域真的就有超天才。长期投资成功所基于的理念最後实际上是一样的。如果谁在自吹自己的超天才，那厶，他（她）背後很可能就有不可告人的秘密存在。 在高盛事件暴露之後，我的这些疑问似乎也有合乎逻辑的答案了。 我的这本书估计是目前关于这一事件最系统和完整的分析著作了。不然的话，商务印书馆也不会为我这种小人物出版那厶大部头的专著的。通常情况下，他们只愿意出版在哈佛大学出版社被英文读者认可的大家的作品。记得我在人民大学教书的时候，最喜欢读的就是由商务印书馆出版的各种名著翻译作品了。在那时候，那个地方的作品就是最权威的理论著作了。 如果读者发现什厶错误的地方，请及时指正。在此先谢谢了。 如果阅读上有困难，请到我的新浪博客，那里没有乱码∶ www.blog.sina.com.cn/wangxiangusa
附录∶Bank Shares Under Pressure On Derivatives Deal, Goldman Hearing 4/27/10 | Dow Jones By Kerry Grace Benn
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Bank shares showed little reaction early Tuesday after key Senate Democrats reached a deal to regulate over-the-counter derivatives and ahead of the day's testimony from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) executives about the extent to which the investment bank benefited from the housing market's collapse.
The deal reached late Monday by Senate Banking Chairman Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) and Senate Agriculture Chairwoman Blanche Lincoln (D., Ark), would require many products to be executed on trading platforms and force banks to spin off their swaps desks in order to receive federal assistance.
"I think this end version is a surprise to a lot of people," said Matthew Magidson, vice chairman of the Derivatives Practice Group at New York-based law firm Lowenstein Sandler. He said he thinks many people thought the provision that will likely force the big banks to eliminate their derivatives-trading desks was going to disappear from the bill, but it looks like it's now been accepted.
It's not quite clear what the proposed bill will mean--whether banks could spin off their swaps desk into a subsidiary that's not guaranteed, or whether they're going to have to divest themselves of the desks entirely, he said.
In recent trading, shares of Goldman Sachs edged up 1% to $153.56. The stock is down about 35% since the SEC filed the fraud lawsuit on April 16. Morgan Stanley (MS) fell 0.2% to $30.85. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) increased 0.8% to $44.22, while Citigroup Inc. (C) fell 1.7% to $4.53 and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) rose 0.6% to $18.16.
"If they have to divest, it's going to be a big deal," because derivatives are a very profitable area for the banks, Magidson said. Many banks loan money at a floating Libor-based rate, and offer the ability to swap that rate back to being fixed. If that isn't allowed at the banks, someone else will have to step in and offer that service, he said, adding he's not sure who the right people would be to do that job.
Banks could also face more competition from the bill. European banks such as Credit Suisse Group (CS, CSGN.VX), Deutsche Bank AG (DB, DBK.XE) and HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC, HSBA.LN, 0005.HK) would continue to operate on an integrated model, because they don't have insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Magidson said.
In recent trading, Deutsche Bank fell 2.2% to $71.57, while American depositary shares of Credit Suisse and HSBC slid 0.8% to $47.20 and 2.2% to $51.80, respectively.
Derivatives are contracts between two parties that can be used both by investors speculating on future prices or by companies seeking to hedge against risks such as interest-rate fluctuations or price moves in commodities. Banks and large financial firms are the biggest sellers of swaps, but the near collapse of American International Group Inc. (AIG) tied to its sale of credit-default swaps has raised concern about the risks they can spread to the system.
But even the new plan in Congress has its risks, Magidson said. Central clearinghouses could face the same woes that banks did two years ago if there's another event like the housing market decline that hurts the value of the swaps.
"There's going to be a clear need to bail out a clearinghouse," he said. "Where you could potentially let one dealer fail," you can't do that with a clearinghouse.
Meanwhile, investors were also jittery ahead of Tuesday afternoon's spotlight on Goldman, when Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein and Fabrice Tourre, a vice president at the center of the controversy, will testify before a Senate committee just days after the Securities and Exchange Commission accused the investment bank and Tourre of securities fraud related to the sale of collateralized debt obligations.
The SEC charges against Goldman sparked talk of heftier financial reform and have provided Congress with extra impetus to get a deal done.
Although the derivatives bill has received some support from two key Republicans, including Sen. Olympia Snowe (R., Maine) and Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa), Senate Democrats were still unable to garner enough support on a procedural vote Monday that would advance the broader financial bill forward.
-By Kerry Grace Benn, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2353; kerry.benn@dowjones.com
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