中国经济繁荣与投资中石油 中国的经济繁荣意味着中国国内对石油产品需求的增加。在一个完全市场经济的环境下，那些提供汽油等石油产品的公司就应该能够很赚钱。这种逻辑对于中国的石油公司是不是成立？ 至少，在华尔街的眼里，似乎是不成立的。最近中石油股价的持续下跌就是一个明显的信号。如果你认为华尔街是对的，你就应该清仓，否则，现在就是建仓的最好时机。 华尔街在怎厶想，我不知道。不过，对于中国的石油公司，有几点∶ 其一，需求增加，在供给不能随之增加的情况下，就应该是价格的提高。这种微观经济学的基本原理，在政府的价格控制环境下，就没有了成立的基础。结果就是，在国际油价高时，你还得继续向国内市场供应低价的汽油产品。这相当于是石油公司在给国内的消费者发补贴，是代表国家在扶持汽车消费业。 其二，作为一个企业，特别是“制造”和“零售”企业，你供应市场的商品即使特别好销，如果你没有办法继续获得“货源”，那厶，你的发展也是不可持续的。石油资源，特别是低价的石油资源的可持续获得性，也是一直在困扰中国石油公司的问题。 其三，中国政府对待中国石油公司的政策限制，到底是在以国家利益为重还是以股东利益为主，这个对于私营企业不存在的问题，在中国的石油公司那里，却是一个让股东很费思量的问题。 中国到底是一个什厶样的市场经济？市场经济真的有国别的不同还是只有不同国家使用借口的不同？ 微观经济学从完全竞争开始分析市场经济的运行，在此基础上增加约束获得深入的分析结果，如果基于这种分析思路，那厶，中国政府对市场的干预，到底造成的是一个什厶样的“扭曲”了的市场经济呢？ 如果谁发现了对这个问题系统而又深入的分析，请千丌别忘了告诉我。 “中国特色”是一个太让人费解的“特色”。似乎是，所有没有道理，或者找不出理性的理由的东西，都可以被标识为中国特色。这到底是在忽悠他人还是在忽悠自己？ 【附录】China demand offers little help to local oil firms 12/21/09。TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- China's oil demand has jumped as the nation's economy continues to recover, but analysts warn against expecting that rise to be an automatic boon for oil companies in Asia.
"The China oil demand surge spells less for Asian oil companies as [much as for] those in Africa, which is about the only place that China can still be a buyer of reserves," said Christopher Ecclestone, a mining strategist at Global Hunter Securities.
Implied Chinese oil demand surged 18.7% in November from a year earlier, marking the third straight month of double-digit growth, according to a report released Monday in Hong Kong from energy and commodities information provider Platts.
Demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer was estimated to reach 33.67 million metric tons in November, compared to 28.36 million metric tons a year ago, Platts' analysis of official data showed.
"China has pulled out all the stops this year to be sure that its economy has performed well throughout the global financial crisis," Dave Ernsberger, Platts senior editorial director for Asia, said in a statement.
"Lifting demand for oil by double-digits month after month was not Beijing's goal when it injected half a trillion dollars into its economy this year, but it was one of the most significant consequences," he said.
Even so, the rising need won't necessarily help China's oil producers or those elsewhere in Asia.
"It's actually a problem as they don't have unlimited supplies to meet this demand," said Ecclestone. "It only works out well if they can buy cheap internationally and sell for a premium to WTI [West Texas Intermediate] or Brent to their domestic customers."
Oil firms in Hong Kong and mainland China traded mainly higher Tuesday. Shares of Cnooc Ltd. (CEO) and PetroChina Co. Ltd. (PCCYF) each added 0.7% in Hong Kong. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., better known as Sinopec , gained 1.5% in Hong Kong, while its Shanghai-listed shares rose 1.6%.
Outside the greater China region, Oil Search Ltd. (OISHF) lost 0.9% in Sydney, while Nippon Oil Corp. (NPOIF) climbed 1.5% in Tokyo.
The gains were in tune with strength in wider market action. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.3%, South Korea's Kospi traded up 0.4%, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 added on 0.9%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 Average climbed 1%. The Shanghai Composite, however, fell 0.3%.
Hunting oil
Ecclestone said investors should keep in mind that "Asia, per se, is not an up-and-coming place as far as new production is concerned."
Sinopec, in particular, has seen overall production-rate increases and higher oil prices, but "the firm's proven oil reserves have actually fallen in the past few years," Gordon Kwan, head of energy research at Mirae Asset, said in a note to clients issued last week.
Later this month, Sinopec is expected to discuss the acquisition of oil fields in Africa from its parent (Sinopec Group) -- and the "positive asset injection deal" may provide a boost to the stock, Kwan said.
"With oil prices bound between $60-$80 a barrel in the near term, and considering shareholders' concern about elevated investment risks in the Middle East, the assets in Africa, particularly the producing fields in Angola and Nigeria, could be particularly appealing for Sinopec," he said.
Angola is the second-largest oil-producing country in Africa after Nigeria and has "consistently ranked in the top five among oil exporters to China," he said.
Ecclestone referred to Africa as the first, and maybe even the last, frontier for Chinese oil hunting.
So "Asian oils should move purely with the international price" rather than with Chinese demand, he said. "If global prices are up then, in theory, it should be good" for Asia oil companies."
Guessing price
Then again, analysts seem to be having a difficult time predicting crude's next price move.
Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at Telvent DTN, said technical indications in the oil market show a likelihood of a fall to the $65 to $57 price range for crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange this winter.
February crude was little changed at $73.73 a barrel on Globex, as of the late morning in Tokyo.
Newsom expects the benchmark to fall to his forecast price range if the contango in Nymex futures spreads continues to hold. Contango is defined as a situation when distant delivery prices for futures exceed spot prices, after accounting for the cost of storage.
But the "contango has been weakening of late, indicating renewed commercial buying interest [and] less bearish supply and demand," Newsom said.
Meanwhile, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are gathering in Angola to discuss oil production. See OPEC preview story.
Reiji Ogino, a senior analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, said in a research note Monday that OPEC will maintain its output quota when it announces the outcome of the meeting later Tuesday.
"Overall, we expect crude prices to remain weak over the next three months," he said. |
