谁是苹果的大股东，谁会从分红中得益？

TECH VIEW: You And Your Apple Dividend 

Mar 22, 2012 08:07:06 (ET)

--Apple Inc.'s dividend wealth will be widely distributed among stock market investors

--About 70% of Apple shares were owned by institutions as of Dec. 31

--Biggest holders include five asset management firms, each owning more than 2% of the company's shares

    By John Shinal

    A DOW JONES COLUMN

A little more than six months into his job as Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) chief executive, Tim Cook did something his predecessor Steve Jobs wouldn't do: reward the shareholders with a direct cash payment.

He is also injecting several billion dollars of wealth into a wide variety of investor accounts. So who are these happy investors who will see their brokerage accounts get credited with $2.65 a share later this year?

If you own any of several large technology-sector mutual funds, or if you have money invested with some of the world's largest asset managers, then the answer is you.

Based on the most recent quarterly regulatory filings, those with the largest Apple stakes as of Dec. 31 included five asset management firms that each owned more than 2% of the company's shares. They include Fidelity Asset Management, with a 5.43% stake; Vanguard Group, with 3.99%; State Street Corp. (STT), with 3.73%; BlackRock Inc. (BLK), with 2.71%; and T. Rowe Price Associates (TROW), with 2.59%.

While those numbers may have changed somewhat during the current quarter, the overall picture remains the same. The largest buyer of Apple shares over the last six months, Putnam Investment Management, didn't purchase enough shares to dislodge any of the top five holders.

Owners of stakes that large would receive annual dividends worth anywhere from about $536 million, in the case of Fidelity, to about $260 million for T. Rowe Price.

One fund, the Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX), owned 14.5 million Apple shares as of Jan. 31, based on its most recent filing. That's worth $6.6 billion in Apple stock and an annual dividend payment of around $150 million.

If that fund isn't in your portfolio, how about the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX)? It had 12.7 million Apple shares as of Dec. 31, worth roughly $5.1 billion and a dividend payout of $134 million.

Two of the most widely-held S&P 500 index investments are also big holders of Apple: the (VFINX) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Many other mutual funds have also loaded up on Apple, the stock with the largest market cap in the world. About 70% of the company's shares were owned by institutions, as of Dec. 31.

All of which means Apple's dividend wealth will be widely distributed among stock market investors. That's a welcome bit of cash that the U.S. economy needs right now.

So if you've stayed in the stock market while others have moved their money into bonds or money market accounts, give yourself a pat on the back--you'll benefit from the decision made by Cook and the Apple board.

As for Cook, he owned 13,754 shares of Apple stock as of Dec. 17, according to the company's latest proxy filing. At $2.65 a share per quarter, Cook stands to receive an annual dividend payment of about $145,000.

If that seems woefully small for the man at the helm of the Apple empire, note that this sum doesn't include another 1,362,500 unvested restricted stock units owned by Cook as of December.

And just before Apple announced its decision to begin paying a dividend, Cook exercised and sold stock options worth roughly $20 million, according to regulatory filings dated March 10 and March 12.

Cook's sale of 37,500 shares, for prices ranging from $545.17 to $551.51 a share, were part of an automatic sale plan the chief executive has in place, as he sold the same number of shares on March 10, 2011.

(John Shinal writes for MarketWatch. He can be reached at 415-439-6400 or by email at AskNewswires@dowjones.com.)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 22, 2012 08:07 ET (12:07 GMT)

 Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015

3/21/2012 

With every new $100 level increment in Apple‘s (AAPL) stock price, we hear a chorus of worrywarts on business TV saying it just can’t continue.

It’s unprecedented, they say. Apple’s now too big. Steve Jobs is gone.  Everyone likes it. It’s a bubble.

Yet, no company this big before has ever had the opportunities and relatively low market share that Apple now has.  And Steve’s greatness actually masked how good the rest of the team is.

We’re at $600 now, but I think Apple has much further to go from here.  If things play out as I expect, Apple will hit $1,650 by the end of 2015.  Here’s how.

Macs:

This is the most ignored part of the Apple portfolio.  It has consistently grown faster than the PC industry.  Macs grew their revenues 26% Y/Y in the last quarter and 22% for the last fiscal year.  Macs’ growth rate is actually increasing over time.  The Apple halo effect is truly starting to take hold.

And PCs aren’t dead yet.  The PC industry grew at 10% last year.  As of today, Macs represent only 9% of the PC market.

If the growth rate continues, Macs could sell 55 million units in 2015 – up from 17 million last year.

iPads:

It’s hard to believe this is a new category created from scratch 2 years ago and is now 20% of Apple’s revenues. (Remember most thought it was a dud 2 years ago and fixated on the “dumb” name? Jobs, himself, was depressed with the initial reaction.)

55 million iPads have been sold since inception.  There will likely be 58 million iPads sold this year alone.

It’s clear that Apple is trying to achieve iPod-like market share with the iPad – not iPhone-like market share.

Many estimate 500 million tablets will be sold in 2015.  It’s not so hard to envision Apple retaining a 60% share and selling 300 million iPads then.

For comparison, 409 million PCs were sold globally last year.

iPhones:

Although we think of the iPhone as having saturated the market, it’s actually just getting started due to the shift from feature phones to smart phones.  Horace Dediu estimates iPhone only holds a 6% share when you add the markets for feature phones and smart phones today.

iPhone accounts from 53% of Apple’s revenues today.  Recall the product was only announced 5 years ago.  It’s likely going to remain 44% of Apple’s revenues by 2015.

Smart phones are going to be every person’s primary computing device.  72 million iPhones were sold last year, but they might sell 6x that in 2015, assuming 1.5 billion smart phones are sold then with Apple keeping a 32% share.

iTunes:

After Macs, iTunes is easily the most forgotten part of the Apple portfolio.  Yet, iTunes had $2 billion in net sales last quarter.  Facebook only had $1.1 billion in sales in the same quarter.  Google overall had $10 billion in sales in the quarter.

It’s clear that iTunes sales tag along from the number of iOS devices.  If iOS devices explode – as I expect iPads and iPhones to do – iTunes could turn in $32 billion in revenues by 2015.  And that’s not even counting on potential uptick in new sales from iTunes Match, iCloud, a new streaming service, or something completely new for the launch of iTV.

iTV:

No new product that Apple’s rumored to be launching could be as big as iTV.  Naysayers say it’s a mature market with established players and low margins. Yet, didn’t they also say that about phones?

Here are the facts about the TV industry.  210 million TVs were sold globally last year and that was a 17% growth over the prior year.  By 2015, well over 400 million TVs will be sold.  Apple will likely sell itv TV for $1,000.

That means iTV could be close to a $100 billion a year business for Apple by 2015, or 16% of its revenues.

Don’t you think a bunch of people are going to line up for an iTV – especially the folks who already have an iPhone and iPad?

There’s another thing at work here which I’ll call the Meeker Effect, named after Mary Meeker who noticed this phenomenon in her last big 70 page PowerPoint.  It took Apple 6 years to sell 100 million iPhones.  They’ll sell 100 million iPads in 4 years.  If I’m right, they’ll sell 100 million iTVs in 3 years.  People’s desires for the latest and greatest device to complement their iOS set is increasing over time.

iAd:

Apple has seemed conflicted about whether or not it wants to get into the ad business.  The reason to do it, as Jobs said 2 years ago, is to send more money back to developers and to make mobile ads a quantum leap better than what they are today.

Jobs was right.  The key to nailing mobile ads is combining “emotion with interaction.”  But we’ve yet to see this, even from Apple.

With iTV coming on stream soon though, Apple is going to have to jump in the ad pool.  It is something that has the potential to be massive.

I’ve seen some predictions that the mobile ad business will be $25 billion by 2015.  That’s probably understated by half, given how quickly will flee desktops to smart phones.

Can Apple control $20 billion of a $50 billion market?  Easily in my view.

iPay:

If Apple likes to disrupt huge, inefficient markets, why not get into the mobile payments space?  Unlike Google (GOOG), Apple likes to wait before announcing a new product.  PayPal already expects Apple’s move into this space.

To do this, it will by more complex than just amassing 100 million credit cards linked to iTunes accounts.

But just shaving off the credit card companies’ fees on Apple retail stores could save Apple $3 billion in revenues.

If the mobile payments space heats up as expected, PayPal will see its $4 billion in revenues become $40 billion by 2015. It’s hard to see how Apple doesn’t figure out a way to grab $20 billion of that market by then.

Other Positives Not Accounted For:

Enterprise could get rid of PCs/BlackBerries and move to Apple even faster than I project.

Education could massively adopt iPads to replace text books.

The whole dividend/buyback thing might further support the stock.

Conclusion:

Apple will be a $610 billion revenue company by 2015 as all their key markets start to experience hyper-growth.

At the same time, it’s likely the best single metric to watch in the coming years will be price-to-sales.  I expect Wall Street to (correctly) get more skeptical that Apple can keep growing its revenues beyond the boom in the next few years.

Apple’s price-to-sales ratio (trailing) is currently 4x.  I see it trending down gradually to 2.5x by 2015.

Even with that compressed ratio, Apple can easily become a $1.53 trillion company by 2015.  That’s $1,650 a share.

iTV’s adoption should be even faster than iPad.

Feature phone decline will open the door to massive iPhone growth.

The iPad market could be close to the size of the PC market today in a few short years.

Macs will keep taking share in the PC market as people look to complete their iOS set.

iAd and iPay are both wildcards here. They could be much bigger than what even I optimistically envision.

Sterne-Agee Bumps AAPL Price Target to $740 on iPad, iPhone

BRYAN CHAFFIN,  Mar. 20th ,2012

A rally in the last two hours of trading propelled Apple to yet-another-record close of US$605.96 per share, a gain of $4.86 (+0.81 percent), on what has become moderate volume of 28.9 million shares trading hands. The new close gives Apple a market capitalization of $565 billion.

Mr. Wu noted that Apple’s announcement on Monday afternoon that it sold three million iPads in the first three and a half days of availability was at the high end of his own estimates.

“We had anticipated a strong start based on significant new features including a much improved HD retina display, quad-core graphics, and faster 4G LTE wireless, but this is even stronger than expected,” the analyst told clients.

“In addition,” he wrote, “in our supply chain and industry checks, we are picking up stronger than expected iPhone momentum despite a record setting December quarter where 37 million iPhones were shipped. We believe March quarter shipments will likely be less seasonal than expected helped by 21 countries added to carry the iPhone 4S and the addition of China Telecom as a carrier partner. “

The analyst is now forecasting 60 million iPads in calendar 2012, up from 55 million units. In the March quarter, he is forecasting 28 million iPhones, up from 26 million, and 129.5 million units in the full calendar year, up from 126 million.

He is forecasting revenues of $160 billion for fiscal 2012 (ends in September) and earnings per share of $43.80. That’s an increase from $158 billion in revenue and EPS of $43.30. For fiscal 2013, he is forecasting a whopping $184 billion in revenue and EPS of $50, up from $179 billion and EPS of $48.50.

The rest of the markets all finished lower on Tuesday, with all three major U.S. indices finished in the red. The DOW ended the day at 13,170.19, down 68.94 (-0.52 percent); the NASDAQ closed at 3,074.150, down 4.17 (-0.14 percent); , and the S&P 500 closed at 1,405.52, down 4.23 (-0.30 percent).