美國經濟可在健康發展？

最新的經濟數據，似乎是在表明，美國的經濟正在以比較健康的速度復甦。

最近的汽油價格的持續下降，帶來了運輸成本的下跌，伴隨的就是批發平均物價的下跌。經濟走勢，可真的是牽一髮而動全身，環環緊扣，唇齒相依。

通貨膨脹看來暫時不會是太大的問題。但是，接下來的，如果政府繼續加大向市場投放貨幣的力度，誰都無法保證，帶來的是不是通貨膨脹。伴隨其後的，是不是更為可怕的滯漲！

雖然貸款利息很低，按理說是會由此帶動消費增長，因為，借貸成本的下降，必然的結果就是人們喜愛大花錢的“現實”。但是，在目前這樣的經濟大環境下，低廉的借貸成本，實際上也不過是一個擺在面臨飢餓人面前的一個“大畫餅”，你是只能看，不能摸，自然是更不能用它來解決你的飢餓難題了。

現在，即使你有八百以上的優秀級的信用計分，而且還基本上沒有債務，如果你的目前和過去兩年的持續收入記錄，無法證明你有足夠的現金流，來償還你的每個月承諾將還的定期借貸還款的話，你很可能就是借款無門。

這時候，你唯一可以做的，恐怕就是直接賣掉你擁有大量淨資產的地產什麼的，直接從市場獲得資金，隨後再向銀行借錢買另外一個，或者就是同一個房子。

想想看，是不是很麻煩和無聊？

但是，這就是目前美國銀行在玩的“無聊”遊戲：沒有人想承擔如何一點點，你借錢不還的風險！

這是一個死結。就是這樣的死結，確保了在借貸成本極為低廉的現實情況下，你就是見不到物價的上漲，更何談大幅度的上升呢。

好亦是壞。壞亦是好。

這種顛三倒四的邏輯，好像就是活生生的現實說明。

就是因為這樣的借錢難，操作不現實，所以，才導致了目前中小企業投資的停滯不前，有的甚至不得不直接來個關門大吉，一了百了。

金融危機之後最大的影響之一，就是很多原本還能活下去的很多購物中心（Mall）的直接敗落：這樣的結果，還是“得益於”小企業無力繼續經營之故。而這，又是“得益於”消費者消費能力的有限，同時還“得益於”借貸困難的現實。很多企業是靠借貸來確保經營的繼續的。

在未來的十年，美國經濟會不會再來一次的輝煌騰達？經濟發展的周期性會不會再次顯神通？我們還得繼續拭目以待。

Wholesale Prices in U.S. Fell More Than Forecast in November

By Lorraine Woellert - Dec 13, 2012

Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell more than forecast in November, reflecting the biggest drop in the cost of energy since March 2009.

The producer price index declined 0.8 percent last month, the most since May, after falling 0.2 percent in October, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 74 economists called for a 0.5 percent decrease. The coremeasure, which excludes volatile food and energy, increased 0.1 percent after falling 0.2 percent.

Cooling global economies along with a lack of fiscal clarity in the U.S. that’s slowed corporate demand are keeping a lid on inflation. With price pressure limited, Federal Reserve policy makers yesterday said they would expand monetary stimulus aimed at spurring growth and reducing unemployment.

“Inflation is not an issue,” Neil Dutta, U.S. economist at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York, said before the report. “If you look at wage growth, it’s still very weak. If you look at lending, it’s also still very weak.”

Economists’ estimates for producer prices ranged from a decline of 1 percent to an increase of 0.2 percent. Core wholesale prices were projected to rise 0.1 percent, the Bloomberg survey showed.

Other reports today showed a decline in jobless claims last week to the lowest level since Oct. 6 and a rebound in retail sales in November.

Compared with the same month a year ago, companies paid 1.5 percent more for goods, after a 2.3 percent year-over-year rise in October. The core index increased 2.2 percent in the 12 months ended in November following a 2.3 percent gain.

Cheaper Fuel

Wholesale fuel costs slumped 4.6 percent from the prior month. Diesel prices were down 11 percent and gasoline dropped 10.1 percent, the biggest decreases since March 2009.

The cost of finished consumer foods climbed 1.3 percent.

Expenses for intermediate goods decreased 1.2 percent, also the most since March 2009, and those for crude goods rose 0.1 percent in November.

The cost of passenger cars climbed 0.5 percent and light trucks advanced 0.2 percent. Prices for railroad cars and parts jumped 3.8 percent in November, the most since December 2004.

The Fed yesterday for the first time also linked the outlook for its main interest rate to unemployment and inflation. Rates will stay low “at least as long” as the jobless rate remains above 6.5 percent and if inflation is projected to be no more than 2.5 percent, the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement.

Fed’s Bernanke

“Longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a press conference.

Producer prices are one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the Labor Department. Import prices dropped in November for the first time in four months on cheaper crude oil and business equipment.

The cost of living index, the broadest of the three measures, fell in November for the first time since May, according the Bloomberg survey before tomorrow’s figures.