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股市泡沫到底到了什么地步?
这里提到了美国农业地产的情况。很久以来,自己都有投资农业地产的兴趣,就是一直摸不到门槛。错过了十几年的机会。农业地产的价格和对该地产的需求关系极大,而这种需求又和相关的农产品的市场价格关系紧密。这只是理论上的道理。
我记得,几年前,我们南面不远地方的农业土地的价格大概在每亩2000美元的样子。在土豆和玉米价格高涨之后的价格到了什么样子呢?
The next 10 investment bubbles
8:55 AM ET 11/12/13 | Marketwatch
Bloomberg Asset bubbles are funny
things. You're not sure something is in a bubble until it pops. Ever since
investors first bid up the price of tulip bulbs to ridiculous levels back in
the early 1600s, one thing many economists seem to agree on is that pre-popped
bubbles defy formal identification. This past year Princeton economist Paul Krugman said there's no standard definition for them. Last week, Columbia University economist Guillermo Calvo
said at a San Francisco Fed conference that we still don't have a theory about
them. "Irrational Exuberance" author and Yale economist Robert
Shiller, who recently said stock prices are high but not at alarming levels,
called market bubbles a form of "social mental illness." While we may
not have an academic definition of bubbles, investors certainly have fresh
memories of getting burned by the U.S. housing bubble in 2006 and the
dot.com bubble in 1999. With this in mind, MarketWatch looked at 10 assets that
are showing that sort of frothiness that could indicate a bubble in the making.
--Wallace Witkowski
1.
U.S. stocks lack a 'wall of worry'
The bull market is almost five years old, and the
Standard & Poor's 500-stock index SPX) is
up around 170% since the March 2009 low, making this once-raging bull now an
aging one. Since the last true correction of at least 10% ended in June 2012,
the S&P 500 has gained almost 40%. Corrections are healthy for markets --
they help to reset investor expectations -- and such a long run without a
reversal is concerning. The stock market might well have had more typical ups
and downs if not for a Federal Reserve intent on boosting stocks and other
assets by suppressing interest rates. Now corporate earnings growth is slowing,
and the Fed is close to scaling back, or "tapering," the bond-buying
program that has kept yields artificially low and put a floor under the market.
Yet many investors are ignoring the caution signs. The market needs a
"Wall of Worry" to climb, but retail buyers have become brave and
confident -- two qualities investors should avoid except at points of extreme
pessimism, which this is surely not.
The only thing we have to fear about the current U.S. market
is the lack of fear. It's time to invoke Bob Farrell's Market Rule No. 5:
"The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom,"
the respected former Merrill Lynch market tactician noted. Tellingly, Bank of
America Merrill Lynch's favored multi-asset measure of global investor
sentiment, the "Bull & Bear Index," is nearing a sell signal.
--Jonathan Burton
2.
'Momentum' stocks
A rush of money into equities has propelled a handful of
stocks to dizzying heights, creating a new class of momentum plays such Tesla
Motors Inc.TSLA) and Facebook
Inc. FB) that some find hard to
justify. Tesla and Facebook shares have behaved as if they were on Red Bull for
most of this year, far outpacing the S&P 500, which rallied 24% year to
date as of Friday. Tesla surged 307% while Facebook soared almost 80%. But not
everyone wants to jump on that turbo bandwagon. Famed short seller Jim Chanos
of Kynikos Associates is staying far away from Tesla and Facebook, calling
Tesla a "cult stock" that's risen on speculation rather than
fundamentals. Jamie Albertine, an analyst at Stifel Equity Research, also
believes Tesla's stock rally is overdone. "I would feel different about
the company if it wants to be a niche luxury car manufacturer. Instead it's
trying to become a high volume manufacturer," he said. As for Facebook,
MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert says the social networking company's stock
is overvalued by 45%. "Even if Facebook is able to live up to Wall
Street's estimates (a big if, I might add), and assuming the same
[price-to-sales ratio] of 6.44 as in my previous example, Facebook's market cap
in early 2017 would be $110.1 billion. That's nearly 10% below its current
market cap," he recently wrote..
--Sue Chang
3.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin prices skyrocketed nearly 76% in November through
Friday, and they're up more than 20 times this year, breaking through records
at a pace that has many market participants bracing for a correction. "If
you look at the history of bitcoin trading, it's a series of bubbles,
corrections and setting of a new floor," said Barry Silbert, founder and
chief investment officer of SecondMarket, which launched a bitcoin trust in
late September. In response to whether bitcoin is in bubble territory, he said:
"Looking at a price chart, it's hard to say that we're not." Several
factors have come together. Demand for bitcoin has surged in China, making the
Chinese bitcoin exchange BTC China the most heavily traded in terms of 30-day
volume. The Chinese yuan now makes up about 50% of trading on exchanges, up
from single digits earlier in 2013, said Greg Schvey, head of research at the
Genesis Block, a bitcoin research firm.
The virtual currency received a credibility boost in October
after federal authorities shut down the online drug market Silk Road, which
exclusively accepted bitcoin. "You saw a lot of high net worth individuals
and institutions start to buy after that," said Jaron Lukasiewicz, chief
executive of Coinsetter. And venture-capital firms have raised the virtual
currency's profile by pouring money into bitcoin companies, including $9
million in Series A funding for Circle, a company that aims to make bitcoin
payments easier. Interest in SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust could also
be driving prices higher. The trust has about $15 million in assets under
management, hitting its year-end target in just four weeks, Silbert said. At
its launch, the trust had established buying relationships with more than 100
players in the bitcoin space in order to meet demand.
--Saumya Vaishampayan
4.
Top Scotch
Talk about a liquid asset. In the past few years, rare
whiskies, especially Scottish single malts, have become a hot collectible
category. Whisky Highland, a Scottish company that tracks auction prices and
compiles an index of the top-selling Scotches, says prices have soared by 170%
since the end of 2008. And with buyers purchasing more than $18 million worth
of bottles at auction in 2012 and with the rarest of whiskies routinely
fetching four and five-figure prices, some collectors say the market has
nowhere to go but up. But others caution we could be seeing the beginning of a
whisky bubble, particularly as more distilleries release limited-edition
bottles and potentially push the supply beyond the demand. Complicating the
issue: A lot of these limited-edition whiskies may not cut it from a
connoisseur's standpoint, says Noah Rothbaum, editor-in-chief of Liquor.com.
"Just because something costs $5,000 doesn't mean it's an amazing
whisky," he says. The chart at left shows the increase since 2008 for the
Investment Grade Scotch 1000 index, on a monthly basis.
--Charles Passy
5.
London property prices
It's been some incredible years, not to talk about some
fantastic past months, for the London housing market. In October alone, asking
prices in the capital soared by 10% and with continued upbeat data about the
U.K. economy, some analysts fear we're entering a dangerous boom-bust cycle.
"The key thing in London is that demand exceeds supply and there isn't
enough new supply coming on tap," said Frances Hudson, global thematic
strategist at Standard Life Investments.
But it's not just domestic demand that drives London
real-estate prices. Foreign demand is also heating up as wealthy overseas
buyers look for safe-haven investments. While the demand for London location
doesn't seem to be slowing anytime soon, the developments in interest rates
could cap the impressive growth rates. "One thing to consider is what
happens with interest rates. If the U.S. tapers and the U.K. remains on a
sustainable growth path, you could see rates rise and it would be more
expensive to get a mortgage. That would take some of heat out of the property
market," Hudson said.
--Sara Sjolin
Getty
Images 6. China's housing market
In October, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities rose 10.7%
on average, year-on-year, according to data tracker China Real Estate Index
System. That was the highest growth rate since records became available in June
2011. "Fears of a renewed housing bubble are probably driving the central
bank's credit tightening policies, which may help to stabilize China's growth
through into next year, but could also contribute to social unrest," said
Usha Haley, a professor at West Virginia University and author of Subsidies to
Chinese Industry. "Indeed, many Chinese view investing in the U.S. housing
market as a better alternative for their investments, as they also seem to have
lost faith in their murky stock market," said Haley. "U.S. housing is
viewed as cheaper and better quality. This will have an effect on U.S. property
prices, probably artificially boosting them." In the photo, empty
apartment developments stand in the city of Ordos, Inner Mongolia on September
12, 2011.
--Myra Picache
7.
Farmland
The price of prime U.S. farmland has been on a tear,
particularly in the corn- and soybean-growing heartland, over at least the last
decade. That's only accelerated over the last four years, fueled by a
combination of soaring commodity prices, low interest rates, and big crops. The
average acre of Iowa farm real estate jumped 20% in 2013 to $8,400, according
to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Most experts aren't yet ready to call
farmland a bubble, but they see an important test ahead as prices for corn and
soybeans retreat from recent highs and interest rates begin to creep higher. If
farmland prices continue to soar in the face of such headwinds, it could mark a
fundamentally unsupported mania for productive dirt. And it could be capable of
presenting a danger to lenders and the overall economy should it burst.
Fortunately, experts say there are some preliminary signs that prices are
cooling, though it's too early to draw any major conclusions.
--William Watts
8.
Cattle and beef futures
Prices for cattle futures have climbed around 9% in the last
six months, as tight supplies contributed to record retail beef prices.
"Drought and high feed costs have led to a liquidation in the cattle herd
during the last few years," and the cattle herd this year fell to its lowest
level since 1952, said David Maloni, president of the American Restaurant
Association Inc. Live cattle-futures prices hit a high around $1.34 a pound in
late October, the highest based on records going back to Nov. 1984, according
to FactSet data. "Consumers are still buying beef and we have not seen a
real drop off in demand due to pricing," but prices "will reach an
inflection point" and consumers may push back from the table and choose
alternative meats like chicken and pork, said Kevin Kerr, president and CEO of
Kerr Trading International. Maloni said lower feed costs and better pasture
conditions this year are encouraging ranchers to start to build their herds.
"Eventually, this will lead to better cattle and beef supplies,"
though maybe not until the back half of 2015 at the earliest, he said.
--Myra Picache
9.
Student loan debt
Americans are now carrying more than triple the federal
student debt that they had 10 years ago – and the total amount owed to the
government topped $1 trillion for the first time in the quarter that ended in
June, according to the Department of Education's National Student Loan Data
System. They're also increasingly likely to default on that debt. The Education
Department says 10% of those who began paying back loans in October 2010 were
in default by Sept. 30, 2012. With one exception, the rate has been rising
nonstop for almost nine years. Yet investors in the billions of dollars of
student loans that are securitized each year (called SLABs) don't seem to be
taking much notice. The risk premium that investors are demanding for the
triple-A-rated seven-year version has collapsed by more than a third in the
past two years and earlier this year hit the lowest level since 2007, according
to an index calculated by Barclays. For its part, the U.S. government is
increasingly docking Social Security payments from retirees who have fallen
behind on student-loan payments--as if millennials won't have enough problems
being able to retire. Even Ivy League grads aren't immune to the growing
default trend.
--AnnaMaria Andriotis and Silvia Ascarelli
10.
Tech start-ups, IPOs
Twitter
Inc.'s TWTR) initial public offering
highlighted the strong and growing interest in Internet and social media IPOs.
There's been speculation that other startups, such as Square Inc., the mobile
payments firm, and Snapchat, the popular messaging service, and social media
site Pinterest are also about to take the plunge, and their reported valuations
have raised eyebrows. Also, last week, data storage company Box was reported to
be picking bankers for its IPO. But while investor worries about social media
have eased in the wake of Facebook's strong performance, especially in mobile,
it is still an evolving industry that analysts and investors are still
struggling to figure out. "It is important to note that because Twitter is
so early in its growth, valuation is extremely difficult," Wedbush analyst
Michael Pachter told clients in a note on Twitter. He could very well have been
talking about other web startups.
--Ben Pimentel
Getty
Images The
other side of the bubble story is that there can be plenty of money to be made
in the months or years before a bubble bursts. In the famed 1990s bull-market
run, U.S. stocks rallied about 70% between 1994 and 1996--and then went on to double
before topping out in 2000. For all the warning signs near-vertical ascents
give off, plenty of strategists can point to reasons why these rallies are
likely to have a bit more life. The prevalence of bubbles, and the stakes at
catching them before they burst, has made a cottage industry of bubble watching
among financial media, academics, and regulators, and even helped earn Robert
Shiller a Nobel Prize. But for all the number crunching, they are inextricably
tied to swings in popular sentiment, which makes them tricky to time. Here's
what George Soros had to say about them last year: "Financial bubbles are
not a purely psychological phenomenon. They have two components: a trend that
prevails in reality and a misinterpretation of that trend. " And he added:
"I treat bubbles as largely unpredictable."
--Laura Mandaro
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