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股市泡沫到底到了什么地步? 2013-11-12 07:07:31

股市泡沫到底到了什么地步?

 

这里提到了美国农业地产的情况。很久以来,自己都有投资农业地产的兴趣,就是一直摸不到门槛。错过了十几年的机会。农业地产的价格和对该地产的需求关系极大,而这种需求又和相关的农产品的市场价格关系紧密。这只是理论上的道理。

我记得,几年前,我们南面不远地方的农业土地的价格大概在每亩2000美元的样子。在土豆和玉米价格高涨之后的价格到了什么样子呢?

 

The next 10 investment bubbles

8:55 AM ET 11/12/13 | Marketwatch

 

Bloomberg Asset bubbles are funny things. You're not sure something is in a bubble until it pops. Ever since investors first bid up the price of tulip bulbs to ridiculous levels back in the early 1600s, one thing many economists seem to agree on is that pre-popped bubbles defy formal identification. This past year Princeton economist Paul Krugman said there's no standard definition for them. Last week, Columbia University economist Guillermo Calvo said at a San Francisco Fed conference that we still don't have a theory about them. "Irrational Exuberance" author and Yale economist Robert Shiller, who recently said stock prices are high but not at alarming levels, called market bubbles a form of "social mental illness." While we may not have an academic definition of bubbles, investors certainly have fresh memories of getting burned by the U.S. housing bubble in 2006 and the dot.com bubble in 1999. With this in mind, MarketWatch looked at 10 assets that are showing that sort of frothiness that could indicate a bubble in the making.

--Wallace Witkowski

1. U.S. stocks lack a 'wall of worry'

The bull market is almost five years old, and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index SPX) is up around 170% since the March 2009 low, making this once-raging bull now an aging one. Since the last true correction of at least 10% ended in June 2012, the S&P 500 has gained almost 40%. Corrections are healthy for markets -- they help to reset investor expectations -- and such a long run without a reversal is concerning. The stock market might well have had more typical ups and downs if not for a Federal Reserve intent on boosting stocks and other assets by suppressing interest rates. Now corporate earnings growth is slowing, and the Fed is close to scaling back, or "tapering," the bond-buying program that has kept yields artificially low and put a floor under the market. Yet many investors are ignoring the caution signs. The market needs a "Wall of Worry" to climb, but retail buyers have become brave and confident -- two qualities investors should avoid except at points of extreme pessimism, which this is surely not.

The only thing we have to fear about the current U.S. market is the lack of fear. It's time to invoke Bob Farrell's Market Rule No. 5: "The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom," the respected former Merrill Lynch market tactician noted. Tellingly, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's favored multi-asset measure of global investor sentiment, the "Bull & Bear Index," is nearing a sell signal.

--Jonathan Burton

2. 'Momentum' stocks

A rush of money into equities has propelled a handful of stocks to dizzying heights, creating a new class of momentum plays such Tesla Motors Inc.TSLA) and Facebook Inc. FB) that some find hard to justify. Tesla and Facebook shares have behaved as if they were on Red Bull for most of this year, far outpacing the S&P 500, which rallied 24% year to date as of Friday. Tesla surged 307% while Facebook soared almost 80%. But not everyone wants to jump on that turbo bandwagon. Famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates is staying far away from Tesla and Facebook, calling Tesla a "cult stock" that's risen on speculation rather than fundamentals. Jamie Albertine, an analyst at Stifel Equity Research, also believes Tesla's stock rally is overdone. "I would feel different about the company if it wants to be a niche luxury car manufacturer. Instead it's trying to become a high volume manufacturer," he said. As for Facebook, MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert says the social networking company's stock is overvalued by 45%. "Even if Facebook is able to live up to Wall Street's estimates (a big if, I might add), and assuming the same [price-to-sales ratio] of 6.44 as in my previous example, Facebook's market cap in early 2017 would be $110.1 billion. That's nearly 10% below its current market cap," he recently wrote.. 

--Sue Chang

3. Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices skyrocketed nearly 76% in November through Friday, and they're up more than 20 times this year, breaking through records at a pace that has many market participants bracing for a correction. "If you look at the history of bitcoin trading, it's a series of bubbles, corrections and setting of a new floor," said Barry Silbert, founder and chief investment officer of SecondMarket, which launched a bitcoin trust in late September. In response to whether bitcoin is in bubble territory, he said: "Looking at a price chart, it's hard to say that we're not." Several factors have come together. Demand for bitcoin has surged in China, making the Chinese bitcoin exchange BTC China the most heavily traded in terms of 30-day volume. The Chinese yuan now makes up about 50% of trading on exchanges, up from single digits earlier in 2013, said Greg Schvey, head of research at the Genesis Block, a bitcoin research firm. 

The virtual currency received a credibility boost in October after federal authorities shut down the online drug market Silk Road, which exclusively accepted bitcoin. "You saw a lot of high net worth individuals and institutions start to buy after that," said Jaron Lukasiewicz, chief executive of Coinsetter. And venture-capital firms have raised the virtual currency's profile by pouring money into bitcoin companies, including $9 million in Series A funding for Circle, a company that aims to make bitcoin payments easier. Interest in SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust could also be driving prices higher. The trust has about $15 million in assets under management, hitting its year-end target in just four weeks, Silbert said. At its launch, the trust had established buying relationships with more than 100 players in the bitcoin space in order to meet demand. 

--Saumya Vaishampayan

4. Top Scotch

Talk about a liquid asset. In the past few years, rare whiskies, especially Scottish single malts, have become a hot collectible category. Whisky Highland, a Scottish company that tracks auction prices and compiles an index of the top-selling Scotches, says prices have soared by 170% since the end of 2008. And with buyers purchasing more than $18 million worth of bottles at auction in 2012 and with the rarest of whiskies routinely fetching four and five-figure prices, some collectors say the market has nowhere to go but up. But others caution we could be seeing the beginning of a whisky bubble, particularly as more distilleries release limited-edition bottles and potentially push the supply beyond the demand. Complicating the issue: A lot of these limited-edition whiskies may not cut it from a connoisseur's standpoint, says Noah Rothbaum, editor-in-chief of Liquor.com. "Just because something costs $5,000 doesn't mean it's an amazing whisky," he says. The chart at left shows the increase since 2008 for the Investment Grade Scotch 1000 index, on a monthly basis.

--Charles Passy

5. London property prices

It's been some incredible years, not to talk about some fantastic past months, for the London housing market. In October alone, asking prices in the capital soared by 10% and with continued upbeat data about the U.K. economy, some analysts fear we're entering a dangerous boom-bust cycle. "The key thing in London is that demand exceeds supply and there isn't enough new supply coming on tap," said Frances Hudson, global thematic strategist at Standard Life Investments.

But it's not just domestic demand that drives London real-estate prices. Foreign demand is also heating up as wealthy overseas buyers look for safe-haven investments. While the demand for London location doesn't seem to be slowing anytime soon, the developments in interest rates could cap the impressive growth rates. "One thing to consider is what happens with interest rates. If the U.S. tapers and the U.K. remains on a sustainable growth path, you could see rates rise and it would be more expensive to get a mortgage. That would take some of heat out of the property market," Hudson said. 

--Sara Sjolin

Getty Images 6. China's housing market

In October, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities rose 10.7% on average, year-on-year, according to data tracker China Real Estate Index System. That was the highest growth rate since records became available in June 2011. "Fears of a renewed housing bubble are probably driving the central bank's credit tightening policies, which may help to stabilize China's growth through into next year, but could also contribute to social unrest," said Usha Haley, a professor at West Virginia University and author of Subsidies to Chinese Industry. "Indeed, many Chinese view investing in the U.S. housing market as a better alternative for their investments, as they also seem to have lost faith in their murky stock market," said Haley. "U.S. housing is viewed as cheaper and better quality. This will have an effect on U.S. property prices, probably artificially boosting them." In the photo, empty apartment developments stand in the city of Ordos, Inner Mongolia on September 12, 2011. 

--Myra Picache

7. Farmland

The price of prime U.S. farmland has been on a tear, particularly in the corn- and soybean-growing heartland, over at least the last decade. That's only accelerated over the last four years, fueled by a combination of soaring commodity prices, low interest rates, and big crops. The average acre of Iowa farm real estate jumped 20% in 2013 to $8,400, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Most experts aren't yet ready to call farmland a bubble, but they see an important test ahead as prices for corn and soybeans retreat from recent highs and interest rates begin to creep higher. If farmland prices continue to soar in the face of such headwinds, it could mark a fundamentally unsupported mania for productive dirt. And it could be capable of presenting a danger to lenders and the overall economy should it burst. Fortunately, experts say there are some preliminary signs that prices are cooling, though it's too early to draw any major conclusions.

--William Watts

8. Cattle and beef futures

Prices for cattle futures have climbed around 9% in the last six months, as tight supplies contributed to record retail beef prices. "Drought and high feed costs have led to a liquidation in the cattle herd during the last few years," and the cattle herd this year fell to its lowest level since 1952, said David Maloni, president of the American Restaurant Association Inc. Live cattle-futures prices hit a high around $1.34 a pound in late October, the highest based on records going back to Nov. 1984, according to FactSet data. "Consumers are still buying beef and we have not seen a real drop off in demand due to pricing," but prices "will reach an inflection point" and consumers may push back from the table and choose alternative meats like chicken and pork, said Kevin Kerr, president and CEO of Kerr Trading International. Maloni said lower feed costs and better pasture conditions this year are encouraging ranchers to start to build their herds. "Eventually, this will lead to better cattle and beef supplies," though maybe not until the back half of 2015 at the earliest, he said.

--Myra Picache

9. Student loan debt

Americans are now carrying more than triple the federal student debt that they had 10 years ago – and the total amount owed to the government topped $1 trillion for the first time in the quarter that ended in June, according to the Department of Education's National Student Loan Data System. They're also increasingly likely to default on that debt. The Education Department says 10% of those who began paying back loans in October 2010 were in default by Sept. 30, 2012. With one exception, the rate has been rising nonstop for almost nine years. Yet investors in the billions of dollars of student loans that are securitized each year (called SLABs) don't seem to be taking much notice. The risk premium that investors are demanding for the triple-A-rated seven-year version has collapsed by more than a third in the past two years and earlier this year hit the lowest level since 2007, according to an index calculated by Barclays. For its part, the U.S. government is increasingly docking Social Security payments from retirees who have fallen behind on student-loan payments--as if millennials won't have enough problems being able to retire. Even Ivy League grads aren't immune to the growing default trend.

--AnnaMaria Andriotis and Silvia Ascarelli

10. Tech start-ups, IPOs

Twitter Inc.'s TWTR) initial public offering highlighted the strong and growing interest in Internet and social media IPOs. There's been speculation that other startups, such as Square Inc., the mobile payments firm, and Snapchat, the popular messaging service, and social media site Pinterest are also about to take the plunge, and their reported valuations have raised eyebrows. Also, last week, data storage company Box was reported to be picking bankers for its IPO. But while investor worries about social media have eased in the wake of Facebook's strong performance, especially in mobile, it is still an evolving industry that analysts and investors are still struggling to figure out. "It is important to note that because Twitter is so early in its growth, valuation is extremely difficult," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told clients in a note on Twitter. He could very well have been talking about other web startups.

--Ben Pimentel

Getty Images The other side of the bubble story is that there can be plenty of money to be made in the months or years before a bubble bursts. In the famed 1990s bull-market run, U.S. stocks rallied about 70% between 1994 and 1996--and then went on to double before topping out in 2000. For all the warning signs near-vertical ascents give off, plenty of strategists can point to reasons why these rallies are likely to have a bit more life. The prevalence of bubbles, and the stakes at catching them before they burst, has made a cottage industry of bubble watching among financial media, academics, and regulators, and even helped earn Robert Shiller a Nobel Prize. But for all the number crunching, they are inextricably tied to swings in popular sentiment, which makes them tricky to time. Here's what George Soros had to say about them last year: "Financial bubbles are not a purely psychological phenomenon. They have two components: a trend that prevails in reality and a misinterpretation of that trend. " And he added: "I treat bubbles as largely unpredictable."

--Laura Mandaro

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作者:老手多言 留言时间:2013-11-12 08:21:19
天天叫泡沫!社会进步科技进步不也是泡沫吗?我们出国前,上海大学讲师工资是每月105人民币,一年也就是1260块人民币。现在上海人均可支配收入超过40000,是30年前的32倍。喔,泡沫。但这个泡沫永远不会破。美国金融海啸后,股市不但恢复,还更高。
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· 福布斯:马云和他的敌人们
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(2)
· 阿里巴巴与雅虎之战(1)
【《哈佛小子林书豪》】
· 从林书豪身上学到的人生十课之一
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之二
· 《哈佛小子林书豪》之一
【华裔的战歌】
· 中国不应对骆家辉抱太大的幻想
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(2)
· 华裔政界之星——刘云平(1)
· 心安则身安,归不归的迷思
· 华裔的战歌(5):谁造就了"
· 华裔的战歌(4):关注社会与被
· 华裔的战歌(3):“全A”情结与失
· 华裔的战歌(2):犹太裔比我们
· 华裔的战歌(1) 华裔在美生存现状
【国美大战】
· 企业版的茉莉花革命与公司政治
· 国美之战,不得不吸取的十条教训
· 谁来拯救国美品牌
· 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
· 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
· “刺客”邹晓春起底
· 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
· 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
· 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
· 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
· 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视
· 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
· 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
· 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
· 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
· 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
· 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
· 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
· 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
· 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
· 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土
· 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外
· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
【科幻小说:幽灵对决】
· 幽灵对决:意识的纠缠
· 科幻小说:幽灵对决: 首次攻击
【魏奎生 作品】
· 那年,那月,那思念
· 故乡的老宅
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
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