股市解读：方法、要点和现状

该怎么样解读股市提供的信息？应该采用什么方法？各种方法之间有什么差异？各种方法的缺陷在哪里？

这里的文章，将给你部分启发。

我附上简短的说明，看看能不能给你必须的帮助。这里解读的角度，还主要是就“短期”而言。

对于股市整体的长期解读，说到底是对一个市场所代表的公司整体长期经营业绩的解读。而对于一家公司的长期解读，则是对这家公司长期竞争力和经营赚钱能力的解读。

注意到，谈的是长期持久的竞争力，是在拥有优势竞争力前提下的盈利能力和盈利成长能力。短期的成功者，长期或许会成为败军之将。后面，我再给你贴出一篇文章，告诉你：美国股市败在创始人手里的十家曾经牛哄哄过的公司名单和它们败落的主要原因。

What the market is telling us now 

By Michael Sincere 
Feb 6, 2013 13:52:36 (ET)

MIAMI, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- Do we dare call this a bull market? The indicators were on target in January, and showed that the market had enough strength to go higher. Nevertheless, we'll turn to the indicators to warn of potential dangers.

• 趋势解读：有继续向上的趋势。暗示着牛市行情还将继续。虽然有很多人在唱衰股市，期待着一次大的回调出现，但是，期待的还没有变成现实。

On the technical side, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is well above its moving averages, which indicate the bullish trend will continue. Obviously, a so-called Black Swan event can occur at any time, but after four years, we're still waiting. The higher the market goes, the louder the crash warnings will get. But the market keeps advancing. MACD is also signaling that the upward trend will continue.

• 相对强度指数表面，市场已经被“超买”，有回吐的可能性。毕竟，按照“随机慢行”理论，最终，股市还是会回归“理性”水准。所以，短期的过度“兴奋”，最终是会被市场自动调整回来的。但是，“短期”毕竟是个很“技巧”的概念，其长度很难预测准。

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is signaling the market is overbought, which is a concern. However, the market can remain overbought for weeks or months before reversing.

• 基于期权制定的“牛熊指数”显示，市场玩家看涨的比例大于看跌的比例。也就是说，股市的投资者，更多的人乐意将宝压在股市将继续上涨这边。所以，需求的重心，在短期内还是买入而不是卖出。

Sentiment indicators, which tell you if investors are overly bullish or bearish, show that investors are becoming more enthusiastic about the market. The recent 0.67 put/call ratio hints that options investors are still bullish (and buying more call options). It wouldn't be surprising to see the market have a short-term pullback, bringing investors back to reality.

• CANSLIM是《Investors Daily》的创始人创建的一个综合评价股市中最有升值潜力股的一种指标。这套指标，在股市以牛市为特色的时候，对于喜爱成长股的投资者，是个不错的参考指标。在熊市来临大跌的环境下，你跟着它来投资，还是会跌的鼻青脸肿。不过，它至少给了你一个自己说服自己的“科学”方法和指标。人吗，都是喜欢和需要借口的。基于这个指标，市场总体看还是牛哄哄的可能性比较大。它还告诉我们，那个卖木材的商家，面对“已经”开始复苏的房屋市场，是个不错的投资对象。

Recently I had a talk with Amy Smith, author of , and an expert on the CANSLIM investment philosophy. I wanted to confirm that CANSLIM was showing what I see: a bullish market with possible warning signs. CANSLIM, created by William O'Neil, looks at current earnings, annual earnings, new products and services, share supply and demand, leaders and laggards, institutional sponsorship, and market indexes to identify strong and weak stocks.

Smith says that the overall market is continuing to act well, noting that "the Nasdaq is holding in a tight range."

Because we're in earnings season, Smith wants to know if institutions are starting to sell stocks, which would be a warning sign. If there is heavy selling, that would indicate mutual fund companies and other large players have lost faith in the market. Fortunately, Smith doesn't see that yet.

Most important to CANSLIM, the leading stocks are still acting well, and so far there haven't been major problems. Even though a few stocks (such as Apple Inc. ) have had disappointing earnings, Smith says that happens every earnings season. Overall, according to CANSLIM, the market is acting strong but Smith is looking for signs of distribution (selling). The leading stocks are holding up, but she is watching them closely.

When I asked Smith for a leading stock that fits the CANSLIM criteria, she mentioned Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. , a retailer that provides hardwood flooring and lamination at discounted prices.

The company has profited along with the housing market recovery, and has a chart that any long-term investor (or covered call writer) might appreciate. Lumber Liquidators reports earnings on February 20.

Here's why Smith likes Lumber Liquidators: "A lot of homebuilders are reporting earnings, which will tell us if the housing boom is continuing, or if there will be a slowdown from that group. Lumber Liquidators is a stock that has done well, and since October has been consolidating (a period of indecision). When they report earnings, we want to see if they can come out of this price consolidation on heavy volume."

• 机构投资者整体而言，还是以买入为主，也就是说，总数而言，买的强度还是大于卖出的强度。所以，股市投资的主力军，在市场上还是以买入为主，所以，至少在短期内，你不用担心，因为主力的卖出压力，而拉跌大盘指数。但是，这些毕竟只是短期的“迹象”。

If the stock breaks out on strong volume, it would indicate that institutions are aggressively buying.

Because it is earnings season, the market may be volatile in the short term. Nevertheless, the indicators are generally positive, and unless there are unexpected surprises, February could be a good month.

Rather than get swayed by fear, rely on fundamental or technical analysis, or a method such as CANSLIM. If you do see danger signs, then sell or reduce your position. But staying out of the market permanently because the markets might crash is not an investment strategy.