苹果六百大关之后是什么

在乔布斯去世，大家热捧乔布斯传记，很多人担心后乔布斯时代苹果股票走向，很多人因为害怕而抛弃苹果股票的时候，我花了无数的日日夜夜研读苹果的故事，特别是苹果的商战故事。最后，我得到的直觉是：苹果故事不会因为乔布斯的去世而停止。至少在短期而言，在未来的两三年之内，苹果依然有不可战胜的竞争力。

那时候，苹果的股价在370美元，像个幽灵，对于很多胆小的投资者，就相当于是，一个想爱又害怕的求爱者，面对漂亮的年轻女郎，只有在墙角落偷偷的看看的胆量。

很可惜，这个时代依然是“撑死胆大的饿死胆小的”的年代，如果你没有一点敢于“冒险”的精神和胆量，只是靠你每天给人打工而求得过个安稳的日子，最终，你过的日子很可能是非常的不安稳。

风险是必须面对的，不管你喜欢还是不喜欢，也不管你是愿意还是不愿意。不同的只是，智者直接面对，弱者选择逃避而最终被动接受，并且称之为不得不接受的命运。

短短几个月下来，苹果就靠近600美元大关了，而且还在今天试了一次600这个有着魔力的数字，虽然是不是能够做到闯关成功，那还得看很多公司内外的因素共同作用的结果会是什么样的。

如果只是从公司的竞争力、盈利成长速度、垄断水平、账户上的现金储备，和对应的市盈率来看的话，苹果的股价还是不算被高估，即使是在年初到现在已经上升了50%左右之后！虽然公司的市值已经高高在上，高的“惊人”，但是，它的市盈率还不是很高，盈利成长也还是非常快。

问题是，苹果的市值确实是太高了——与市场上的玩家相比，与历史上的数据相比。这，在短期内肯定会成为一个让投资者担心的问题。但是，长期而言，公司市值冲破新的高度，将是历史的必然。不同的，只是谁来成为这个历史的记录书写者罢了。

苹果做的是实实在在的生意，赚的是实实在在的大钱。

相比苹果，倒是那些暂时牛气熏天的“泡泡”公司，只有故事，没有太好的真实盈利事实，这样的公司，对于很多理性的投资者，还是应该规避为好。就像下面列出的几家在今天倒是还大名鼎鼎的公司。

对于Groupon公司，我倒是领教了好几回。我从从事实业的角度感觉，可以告诉你，我不喜欢这家公司做广告的模式。我估计，类似于我这样的企业，很多最终会离它越来越远。那么，这样的结果就是，它的顾客会越来越少。那些试了一次的公司，最终选择不再回头。一家很难保住顾客的公司，其长期成长在哪里？我是读不懂的。

有一点我觉得值得让我钦佩：当年和今天，依然有很多公司，靠着非常没有谱的经营理念，居然还能搞到巨大的资金来尝试自己的想法，倒是给我提了一个很大的醒：相比这些人，我们还是太狗熊！很多巨大的机会，我们还是没有放开手脚去认真地试一试。那么，下一步，我们是不是到了该改变一下自己的生活模式的时候了呢？

TECH VIEW: The Tech World - Then And Now

3/15/12 | Dow Jones， By Therese Poletti 

Just two weeks after the Nasdaq closed above 3000 for the first time in November 1999, Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) co-founder Bill Gates gave a keynote address at the Comdex trade show. 

Remember that? For those of you who have no idea what I am talking about, Comdex used to be the tech industry's big show. But even back then, the sprawling show was starting to feel behind the times in the midst of the roaring dot-com boom that was sweeping the nation. 

Fast forward to 2012: the Consumer Electronics Show has usurped Comdex as tech's annual gathering, but Microsoft will no longer participate. Giant industry trade shows are becoming increasingly irrelevant, expensive and inefficient in the world of social media, where many just watched CES press conferences webcast on Facebook. 

As the Nasdaq bounces around 3000 again, it might be useful to walk down memory lane and look at the tech world over a decade ago, to see what has changed and what--if anything--we learned. 

In 1999, there was no such thing as Facebook, Twitter or smartphones. The Palm Pilot was the tool for the cool young Gen-X hipsters and the gadget freaks, many of whom were plotting strategies to flip their Internet startups and cash out as millionaires in one of the many fly-by-night dot-coms. There were approximately 289 Internet-related IPOs in 1999, raising a staggering $24.66 billion. The Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) neon sign flickered over San Francisco's on-ramp to the Bay Bridge. 

One of the most memorable of those now-defunct dot-coms is Pets.com, perhaps more so for its iconic sock puppet used in its vast advertising campaign. On Nov. 4, 1999, just one day after the Nasdaq closed at 3028.51, Webvan went public. Two years later, the online grocery company, which spent millions setting up a nationwide distribution system, went bust. Now Safeway.com sells groceries over the web. 

Today, the vestiges of Palm Inc., purchased by Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) in 2010, are pretty much gone. Many of those dot-commers are now in their 40s and some call themselves serial entrepreneurs, with a slew of successes and failures under their belts. 

Carly Fiorina was then chief executive of H-P, Steve Jobs was orchestrating Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) turnaround with the popular fruit-colored iMacs, and the company had yet to introduce the iPod and iTunes, which would forever change the music industry. The Twin Towers stood tall at the foot of Manhattan, and the city was promoted by some as "Silicon Alley" for its growing number of multimedia and Internet advertising startups. 

Google Inc. (GOOG) was still private, but the young company had just hired its first chef, Charlie Ayers. Ayers won the job in a cook-off judged by the company's 40 employees. He previously had catered for the Grateful Dead. 

Microsoft and Intel Corp. (INTC) dominated the PC industry, Microsoft was battling antitrust allegations, and a year later, at the 2000 Comdex, Gates would demonstrate a tablet that used electronic ink, one that never saw the light of day. 

Today, both giants are playing catch up in the mobile arena, Apple has upended even more industries, including mobile phones, and it shook up the PC industry with the first successful tablet, the iPad. Its legendary co-founder Jobs passed away last year, and about-to-go public Facebook Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg is the latest idol of tech CEOs. 

Many things have changed dramatically in tech in the last 12 years. But Internet IPOs, after a long drought, have made a comeback, and venture capitalists are still investing in copycat, me-too startups. The dot-coms of 1999 have become the social media darlings of 2011 and 2012. And a lot of companies are still trying to figure out the best way to monetize "eyeballs." 

The valuations of money-losing companies such as Groupon Inc. (GRPN), with a market cap of nearly $9 billion, are troubling to some. Zynga Inc. (ZNGA), a social game company that makes money selling virtually nothing, also has a market cap just above $9 billion. According to Renaissance Capital, in 2011, four of the five largest U.S. Internet IPOs ever--Bankrate Inc. (RATE), Groupon, LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) and Zynga--raised $2.4 billion. 

And the Yahoo sign no longer glows over San Francisco.