| 美国房市有希望复苏吗？ 很多人以过去的历史经验来解读和预测美国房市的复苏信号，这不，下面又是一篇解读房市复苏的大忽悠文章。 房市“需要”复苏，是因为曾经跌的太多，而能够跌和大跌，又是因为泡沫的存在和泡沫的巨大，而泡沫的存在，则又是因为大量外来“投资者”炒作的结果。越是“开放” 的地方，在泡沫制造过程中，外来投资者也越多，故而房价上升的也最快。后来，泡沫破灭之后，也是它们，下跌的最厉害。 有点意思：原来，如果没有人为的制造和“躁动”，房价的“高升”实际上是不应该也不会存在的，或者说，是不“必要”存在的。不然的话，被人为的捧上去，又被人为的踩下来，也真的是够无聊的了。 拉斯维加斯、加州、佛罗里达，就是这种无聊游戏的发生地。 而那些一直就没有人觉得值得炒的地方，虽然在其它地方的人们靠房子“大发横财”而自己只能自叹不如时，有点自卑，但是，在泡沫消失的时候那些曾经得意一时者不得不面对的那种刺骨的疼痛和心寒，他们也没有体会的机会。 上帝，看来还是真的很公平：喜欢折腾的人，在享受了昂奋、兴奋之后，也必须体验悲伤，才能算是平衡和公平了。 美国这次的房市泡沫，是“得益于”金融机器制造的庞大需求，所带来的远超过实际需求能力的供给。这种供给的存在，在短期，在未来的十年，恐怕都无法被市场消化掉。所以，在未来的十年之内来谈论房市的复苏，实际上也只能是自我安慰和异想天开了。 美国靠房市和汽车这类大件消费来拉动经济的时代，看来是很难再见到了，至少是在未来的十年之内。所以，在这几年之中，谈论房市复苏，也只能是天方夜谭。 而那些希望靠买低卖高，在房市上大捞一笔，在房市复苏之后再次见到房市的欣欣向荣的乐观的人们，这一次，很可能会“发现”历史不再重演，会因此而彻底的失望，甚至是绝望。 美国经济在未来十年，是不是会再来一次展现辉煌，我个人看来，结论比较悲观。 连接：经济衰退结束了吗？ 关注ULTA，或许有赚头 The 10 States with the Strongest Housing Markets September 4, 2012 by 247wallst The housing market is showing signs of a recovery, albeit a halting one. In 10 states, median home prices increased by more than 5.5% from July 2011 to July of this year. While there is no single reason why housing markets in these states have done so well, most have several things in common. Many of them, like North and South Dakota, have maintained jobless rates at nationwide lows. In these states, home prices barely dropped when the national housing bubble burst. Since then, home prices in some of have even risen, while the national market plummeted. In these economically stable areas, home prices expected to continue to move higher, although recoveries are expected to be modest. However, some of the states with the biggest home price increases were hit particularly hard by the housing collapse. In Florida and Arizona, home prices dropped by nearly 50%. In Nevada the drop was nearly 60%. In all three states, the recovery is expected to be temporary. Median home value change will lag the national trend in the next year, but will improve over the next five years according to Fiserv. If the data tell anything, it is that the housing market recovery will continue to be uneven, and will be based to a large extent on what happened to home prices in geographically since its 2007. Housing markets in the states that exhibited economic strength throughout the recession will continue to improve relative to the national average. States that were broken by high unemployment and sharp drops in home values can expect their recoveries to be difficult, and in many cases, very long. To create the list of the 10 states with the strongest housing markets, 24/7 Wall St. relied the Corelogic Home Price Index for the year that ended in July. We also reviewed foreclosure data from RealtyTrac to reflect the extent to which foreclosures rates undermine ongoing recoveries. We obtained home price forecast for the near-term, measured from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013, the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, and the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2017 from Fiserv. Median sales prices as of Friday, August 28 are from Trulia. State unemployment as of July 2012 is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 10. Montana
> 1 yr. home price change: +5.6%
> Median home price: $151,300
> Unemployment rate: 6.4% (15th lowest) Montana shares characteristics with several of the Plains States. It never suffered from high unemployment during the recession; as a matter for fact, the jobless rate has been extraordinarily low. The agriculture and oil industries did well, and commodity prices were high. The cost of living in these states was, and still is, relatively low compared to the national average, and so are home prices. The benefits of being a homeowner in Montana should continue. Corelogic predicts that the appreciation in home prices in the state will be the 14th best among all states from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, and the 12th best among all states from the first quarter of this year through the first quarter of 2017. 9. Hawaii
> 1 yr. home price change: +5.7%
> Median home price: $522,000
> Unemployment rate: 6.4% (14th lowest) Hawaii has the highest median home price of any state by a wide margin. That is even after home prices fell 20.4% between the 2007 housing market peak through the first quarter of this year. Forecasts, however, show that the recent improvement should moderate. Corelogic predicts home prices will rise 3.2% between the first quarter of next year and the first quarter of 2014. That ranks Hawaii No. 28 among all states. The value of a home in Hawaii is predicted to rise 3% on an annualized basis between the first quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2017, only the 35th highest increase among all states. 8. South Carolina
> 1 yr. home price change: +6.3%
> Median home price: $129,900
> Unemployment rate: 9.6% (6th highest) South Carolina suffered relatively high unemployment during the recession, and it remains above the national average of 8.3%. The real estate market also suffered during that time. And despite the year-over-year 6.3% home price in July, it may continue to suffer. RealtyTrac reported that foreclosure starts rose 25% in July 2012 over July 2011. That puts it in the 10th spot among all states. The recent improvement in home prices is expected to be short-lived. Corelogic expects home prices to improve only 2.3% between the first quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of the following year, only the 38th highest rise among all states. Longer term, from the first quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2017, prices on an annualized basis are predicted to rise only 3.2%, which ranks it 27th among all states. South Carolina is one of several states 24/7 Wall St. found will only have a momentary housing price recovery. 7. Florida
> 1 yr. home price change: +6.6%
> Median home price: $236,000
> Unemployment rate: 8.8% (12th highest) One of states most brutally damaged by the wreck of the housing market bubble, Florida’s home prices dropped 48.4% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of this year. Only Arizona, Nevada and California are even in that league. The problem arose from a combination of overbuilding and high unemployment, which was created to some extend by the drop in home construction jobs. The recovery of the state housing market is uneven at best. RealtyTrac reports that Florida’s foreclosure rate in July of of one in every 352 housing units ranked third among all states. Florida’s recovery in terms of home prices is expected to be poor short term, but substantially improved longer term. The improvement in price from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014 is expected to be a tepid 1.8%, putting it 45th among all states. However, from the first quarter of this year until the first quarter of 2017, the improvement on an annualized basis is forecast at 4.2%, which is 11th highest among all states. 6. North Dakota
> 1 yr. home price change: +7.1%
> Median home price: $88,600
> Unemployment rate: 3.0% (the lowest) North Dakota is another of the Plains States that never had substantial home price declines or severe unemployment as the national economy cratered between 2007 and 2010. Home prices during that period actually rose 17%, the highest in the nation. North Dakota has consistently ranked in the bottom three states in terms of unemployment rate. North Dakota home prices, at a median of below $90,000 are quite low — 45th among all states. Home prices should continue to appreciate in the future, although at a very modest rate. For the period from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, prices are forecast to rise 2.8%, only 34th highest among all states. Over the period from the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2017, the annualized rate of home price improvement is predicted to be 3.4% — the 22nd highest. 5. Colorado
> 1 yr. home price change: +7.3%
> Median home price: $240,000
> Unemployment rate: 8.3% (20th highest) The Colorado housing market was not badly damaged when the housing bubble broke. Home prices dropped 9.5% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2012, which was the 18th best among all states. The market’s recovery rate will put it in the middle among the 50 states. Colorado home prices are forecast to recover at 3.7% between the first quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, the 22nd-highest increase. Over the longer period from the first quarter of this year until the first quarter of 2017, prices are expected to improve 2.4% per annum, which ranks it 42nd. 4. South Dakota
> 1 yr. home price change: +8.3%
> Median home price: $101,700
> Unemployment rate: 4.4% (3rd lowest) South Dakota, another Plains State, has the same advantage of being home to industries that employ a great many of its residents as its neighbors do. Home prices are 44th among all states. Those prices barely budged when the housing market throughout most of the nation disintegrated. The median price of a home actually rose 3% between the first quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of this year. On that basis, South Dakota ranked second among all states. The improvement in the market is only expected to be mediocre moving forward, and certainly nowhere near the 8.3% home price increase of last year. Home prices are forecast to rise 4.6% from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014. That places its 15th among all states. But the growth rate will moderate considerably for the five years that began in the first quarter of this year. On a per annum basis, home prices are forecast to increase 3.4% during that time — 23rd among all states. 3. Utah
> 1 yr. home price change: +9.3%
> Median home price: $129,000
> Unemployment rate: 6.0% (11th lowest) The damage to the Utah housing market during 2007 to 2011 was worse than most states — home prices fell 21.6% over that period. That rate Utah 34th among all states based on that measurement. The recovery of the market is predicted to be particularly strong for the next several years, nearly as strong as the 9.3% jump in median home price from July 2011 to July 2012. Corelogic expects home prices to rise 5.8% from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, which ranks it 10th among all states on that metric. Over the five years through the first quarter 2017, on a per annum basis, the improvement is forecast to be 3.9%, which ranks its 15th among states. 2. Idaho
> 1 yr. home price change: +10%
> Median home price: $85,000
> Unemployment rate: 7.5% (25th lowest) Idaho is one of only seven states with a median home price below $100,000. Unlike Montana, North Dakota and South Dakota to the east of it, Idaho did suffer from an unemployment problem. At 7.5%, the jobless rate is not terribly better than the national average. This may have contributed to the drop in Idaho home prices, which fell 29.6% from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of this year. The home price recovery is expected to be stronger than almost any other state, a continuation of the 10% improvement over the past year. For the period from the first quarter 2013 to the first quarter 2014, home prices are expected to rise 8.8% — the highest in the nation. For the five-year period that began in the first quarter of this year, the per annum improvement is expected to be 4.8%, which rates Idaho eighth by that measurement. 1. Arizona
> 1 yr. home price change: +16.6%
> Median home price: $248,229
> Unemployment rate: 8.3% (18th highest) The Arizona real estate market was damaged as badly as any other when the home market collapsed, perhaps with the exception of Nevada. And the pain is not near the end yet, despite ranking first in home price improvement from July 2011 to July 2012. Arizona home prices fell 49.9% from the first quarter 2007 to the first quarter 2012. The state continues to have the second-highest foreclosure rate in the country, according to RealtyTrac, with one in every 346 housing units with a foreclosure filing in July. That troubling trend may be why the Arizona’s housing market recovery is expected to be extremely weak, over the shorter and longer term. Home prices are expected to rise only 1.4% from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, which puts Arizona 48th among all states. Over the period from the first quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2017, the improvement is expected to be 2.5% per annum — 39th among all states. -Douglas A. McIntyre 连接： 经济衰退结束了吗？ 关注ULTA，或许有赚头 |
