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汪 翔  
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新科诺贝尔经济学奖获奖者给你谈金钱观 2017-10-09 09:23:41

诺贝尔经济学奖获奖者给你谈金钱观


如果我没有记错,这应该是位于克利夫兰市区的凯斯西部大学培育的第一位本科生,获得诺贝尔经济学奖。此前,曾经在那里获得硕士学位的爱德华,也获得过诺贝尔经济学奖。

至此,凯斯西部大学拥有十七位校友拥有诺贝尔奖获得者的头衔。

两个人的获奖成果也蛮有意思:前面的爱德华(2004年获奖,1964年获得运筹学硕士,随后在卡内基梅隆大学获得经济学博士)因为“理性预期”:觉得政府的政策,期望制造惊喜来糊弄民众获得效果的做法,最终只是自欺欺人。人们是理性的,会预估并且基于这种预估调整自己的行为,实现自身利益的最大化。

华尔街的理性和信息流通的越来越完备、及时,也确实是支持了这种理论。

由此得出的结论是:政府的政策制定,应该基于合理的民众预期,也就是得基于真正科学的“理由”,而不是基于愚民政策!

政府管理,必须现代化和文明化,在这里得以体现和强调。

对此,中国政府倒是应该好好思考和深度学习一番:不然,老是期待着中宣部制造的烟雾弹,来帮助自己在政策实施上获得成功,最终也是自欺欺人,得不偿失!

改革几十年来产生的大量贪污腐败,不就是这种自欺欺人的结果和最好表现吗?那些占有信息优势,同时又拥有权力能够付诸实施的,权力拥有者,结果成为最大的受害者:作为腐败分子,做了个人贪欲的牺牲品。

最近几年,政府艰难的反腐,如果不看到内在的真实原因,结果还会是一再的反复和重演。

 

与那位强调理性预期不同的是,这次的这位理查德(1967年凯斯西部大学的理学学士)先生,强调的是个人行为,个人非理性思考在金融决策和人类经济行为上的作用:你不用忽悠,我自己会忽悠自己!

他说,每个人的左右肩膀上分别站着天使和恶魔两个幽灵,一个告诉你,做事得理性,多用脑子想想,看远点,不要太看重眼前的蝇头小利。听从这个建议的人,会多考虑未来的岁月。这又在印证,人类会以一生的最大福利为基础,来思考自己的经济决策的“古典储蓄”理论。如果大家都这么做的话,社会就有长远的安定和美好。

中国人不就是如此的“理性”:即使自己没有足够的钱,也会忽悠空周遭的所有人,来实现自己储蓄的目标?买房是第一个!或许,在机器人满地跑的时代,这种理性会很常见。

理查德说:更多的时候,人们更乐意听另外一个肩膀上站着的恶魔的小声嘀咕:别听那些家伙的忽悠!过好现在时,最重要!没有谁会知道明天到底是怎么回事!享受和把握今天最最重要!结果,很多人就这样,听从这位大师的建议:消费,及时行乐,再消费。即使是在没有钱的时候,也会用房子作抵押,搞消费。

我见到的这样的例子实在是太多。在2008年的那场金融危机到来前,很多人觉得:今生还真的运气好,可以在好区零首付住上属于自己的房子。虽然只是短暂的风光,不久之后就是一大批的破产。但是,至少,今生咋们还是享受了一回!

记得在《大家都喜欢瑞们》那个电视剧里面,当瑞们的哥哥因为丢掉工作,身无分文的时候,他的妻子好心好意的借了两千块钱给他这个单身的哥哥度过难关(美国人,即使是兄弟姐妹和父母亲,长大之后一般是不相互借钱的!借钱的事情,找银行好了!),结果,他用这笔救命钱去夏威夷享受了几天。理由也很简单:今生可能不会再有机会!明天怎么样不重要,重要的是今朝!

连曹操也同意他的看法,不信有诗为证:短歌行 (曹操)

 

对酒当歌,人生几何!譬如朝露,去日苦多。

慨当以慷,忧思难忘。何以解忧?唯有杜康。

青青子衿,悠悠我心。但为君故,沉吟至今。

呦呦鹿鸣,食野之苹。我有嘉宾,鼓瑟吹笙。

明明如月,何时可掇?忧从中来,不可断绝。

越陌度阡,枉用相存。契阔谈讌,心念旧恩。

月明星稀,乌鹊南飞。绕树三匝,何枝可依?

山不厌高,海不厌深。周公吐哺,天下归心。

 

理查德还是罗切斯特商学院培养出来的博士,应该是罗切斯特到目前为止自己培养的第一位诺贝尔经济学奖博士。他的导师,也是早期在行为经济学领域的大拿之一。1938年出生的导师,和他这位1945年出生的研究生,也相差不了多少岁。这,是不是也让中国人想想:花大价钱购买老头子来充门面,是不可能培育出一流的思想家的!

MIT那位也得过诺贝尔奖的老萨好像特别强调过,人过了二十五岁就变的非常固执己见,创造力基本上定型。这也是为什么,像理查德这样的大拿,做出的最重要成果,基本上都是博士论文的延续!

在经济学奖正式公布前,有“诺奖风向标”之称的“引文桂冠奖”还发布了2017年经济学奖名单。名单预测说,以下几位最有可能在今年或不久的将来获得诺贝尔奖:

第一:加州理工学院的科林·凯莫勒和卡耐基梅隆大学的乔治·罗文斯坦,两位学者在行为经济学和神经经济学领域取得了开创性研究成果。第二:斯坦福大学的罗伯特·霍尔,他的代表性研究领域为劳动者生产率、经济衰退和失业。第三:哈佛大学的迈克尔·詹森、麻省理工学院的斯特沃特·梅耶斯以及芝加哥大学的拉格拉姆·拉扬。这三位学者在企业融资领域取得了重大研究成果。拉格拉姆·拉扬还曾任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家以及印度央行行长。

你别说,至少它准确的预测了获奖的领域:行为经济学!看来,在行为经济学领域,还会有人获得诺贝尔奖!得趁着年轻时种树!!!

你们或许也注意到,第三名是印度裔的!印度人不仅仅只是在数学和统计学,当医生,做IT等硬科学领域很牛,在“软科学”领域,也完败中国人!

在经济学和社会科学领域,什么时候中国人也有这种档次的思想家出现?实现这个目标,我觉得,比什么时候将中国人送到火星,价值和影响力更大!

咋们拭目以待吧!

 

附录:

Richard Thaler Wins Nobel for Work in Behavioral Economics

The Nobel economics prize has been awarded to Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago for research showing how people's economic choices _ whether on savings or game shows like "Deal or No Deal" _ are not always rational.

Oct. 9, 2017, at 8:06 a.m.

By DAVID KEYTON and JIM HEINTZ, Associated Press


STOCKHOLM (AP) — The Nobel prize in economics has been awarded to Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago for research showing how people's choices on economic matters — whether on savings or game shows like "Deal or No Deal" — are not always rational.

The 9-million-kronor ($1.1-million) prize was awarded to the academic for his "understanding the psychology of economics," Swedish Academy of Sciences secretary Goran Hansson said Monday.

Thaler is considered one of the founding fathers of behavioral economics, a field that shows that far from being the rational decision-makers described in economic theory, people often make choices that don't serve their best interests. That could include, for example, refusing to cut their losses when their investments plunge in value or making big bets at the casino because they are convinced their hot streak will continue.

The illogical behavior has economic consequences: People don't save enough for retirement. They make investments — in houses in the mid-2000s, for instance, when prices are already dangerously high.

The Nobel committee said Thaler has provided a "more realistic analysis of how people think and behave when making economic decisions."

Speaking by phone to a news conference immediately after he was announced as the prize winner, Thaler said the most important impact of his work is "the recognition that economic agents are humans."

In 2015, Thaler had a cameo alongside pop star Selena Gomez in the film "The Big Short," about the global financial crisis. In the scene, he explains the "hot hand fallacy," in which people think whatever's happening now is going to continue to happen into the future.

Asked at the news conference Monday if he thought this observation applied to the U.S president, who had success as a business executive before entering politics, he said: "As to President Trump, I think he would do well to watch that movie."

In 2008, Thaler co-wrote a paper examining the choices contestants face in games such as the TV show "Deal or No Deal," including about how early outcomes affect decisions later in the game. In the paper, Thaler and the authors find that contestants become bolder in their choices when their initial expectations of how much they would win are shattered, whether by big losses or big gains.

On Monday, Thaler told the news conference that he will likely use the prize money in ways consistent with his research.

"I will say that I will try to spend it as irrationally as possible," he said.

Peter Gardenfors, a member of the prize committee, said that one of the practical applications of Thaler's work was development of the "save more tomorrow" strategy for retirement-savings accounts. Under that model, many employees who resist immediately raising the portion of their salary put into retirement accounts will agree to raise their contributions in the following year and usually continue with the higher level.

Thaler's contributions include studying the "limited rationality" trait that includes behavior such as the unwillingness to pay off high-interest credit card debt from a low-interest savings account. He also has studied lack of self-control as it relates to economics.

"One thing that we all recognize is that we have a little angel on our left side of our shoulder and the devil on our right side of our shoulder, and the devil wants us to have pleasure instantly whilst the angel wants us to plan in a responsible and far-sighted way," prize committee member Peter Fredriksson told The Associated Press.

Thaler is not the first behavioral economist to win the Nobel. In 2002, the award went to Israeli-American psychologist Daniel Kahneman who used psychological insights to study how people make economic decisions.

The economics prize is something of an outlier — Alfred Nobel's will didn't call for its establishment and it honors a science that many doubt is a science at all.

The Sveriges Riksbank (Swedish National Bank) Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel was first awarded in 1969, nearly seven decades after the series of prestigious prizes that Nobel called for. Despite its provenance and carefully laborious name, it is broadly considered an equal to the other Nobel and the winner attends the famed presentation banquet.


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作者:汪翔 留言时间:2017-10-11 06:22:29

实际上,中国人也借债消费,而且很厉害,只是台面上看不出来。商业性欠债,个人之间的欠债,国家和政府的欠债,如果真的计算下来,也是很可怕的数字。而且,一旦中国的房价崩盘,结果难以想象。中国的危机比美国的大很多!中国人活的比美国人艰难的多!

美国人讲究享受生活,中国人在为脱胎之后“积累财富”,最终还是中国人活的更累!经济学服务于长期,经济指标只能说明短期,很多还是表面的。

回复 | 0
作者:钟胜希 留言时间:2017-10-10 09:14:07

欧美的借债消费经济把世界越搞越糟,诺贝尔经济学奖却不少拿,是不是很讽刺?

回复 | 1
 
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