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贸易战之三:显摆之过 2018-04-06 03:09:17

川普说,中国经济已经成为世界第二大经济体,早已经不再是发展中国家,而且,中国人长期的,肆无忌惮的盗窃美国的知识智慧产权,是可忍孰不可忍,是到了时候,必须调整贸易政策,让中国人适应新的变化,和惩罚他们难改的恶习。川普说错了吗?在川普之后,美国的媒体多数只是就事论事,也没有铺天盖地的关于爱国,国家地位的每日大量头条。毕竟,美国人很看重头条的经济价值,除非川普政府每天花巨资,买下大量的头条新闻位置的席位。可是,代表纳税人的川普没有这个权利,花不起这个钱,也不觉得有这个必要。

中国方面,一以贯之的喜欢造势和显摆,再怎么样,也不可以输在势头上,这可是老祖宗一再说的,不能不听。一则是党中央到处炫耀自己的成功和伟大,同时还有来自北大教授之类的御用文人在扯着嗓子不断的高喊:中国已经超越美国成为世界最强大的国家,算算我们的GDP,用房价加总再计算一次我们所拥有的财富资产,是不是足够买下好几个美国。中国人民,你们有足够的资本值得自豪,你们实际远比你们感觉到的生活要富有的多。你们的孩子们,在美国穿着名牌,开着豪车,不就是生动的中国梦实现的体现吗?!

与此同时,中国政府也很配合的在世界各地大方的花钱做公关,既获得了显摆之后的短期自我心理满足,还做出了需要的政绩:让各种各样的大旗飘扬在世界各个落后的角落。

美国人看不惯中国人的显摆和土豪架势:如果你真的像你想显摆的那样富有,那么,你为什么不能承担作为第二大经济体应该承担的责任和义务?既然你说你行,我也认可你行(这也是美国人习惯了的思考逻辑!尊重每个人的自我表述。),那么,你是不是也得和咋们一样,尊重知识智慧产权,彻底消灭山寨和小偷小摸的恶习?既然你拥有中央集权,有那么多可以调用的国家资源,你也一定可以做到和世界发达国家一样,按照现代文明人的做法与人交往。为什么你不做?既然你自己不动或者动的实在是太慢,那我只好用强制了。这也是美国人典型的为人处世的行为规范,连对小孩子都是一样的逻辑,老幼无欺。

中国人则觉得,你们美国佬是真傻还是假傻,也太不会看事:我这样显摆,不就是长期的贫穷,被人瞧不起,想就此多有点自豪感吗?我伸展一下自己的自豪感感觉有什么错,你们美国人不也喜欢到处炫耀自己的自豪感?你还来真的,真的以为我是发达国家,真的觉得,我们国家的企业家们,不靠小偷小摸就能活下去,活得好?你真的看不出,多少人的富有,不是靠炒房获得的,有多少人真的靠经营企业获得的利润变的富有的?你真的以为,我们到处花钱摆谱,就真的是因为有钱?你们难道看不出,中国只是少数人富有,多数人在挣扎,看不到,我们已经将工作重心转向扶贫,向贫困开战,就像你们美国在六十年代所做的。你为什么就不能看看我们的进步,而是老盯着我们的不足?

就是这类看问题的角度不同,导致了今天的对垒:作为集权的政府,中国是不可以输在面子上的,美国人难道就不能给咋们点面子吗?于是乎,贸易战才刚刚开始,中国政府就每日头条的一次次显摆:世界人民都站在自己一边,美国国内很多人害怕商战的持续,等等诸如此类的每天类似的重复,也不觉得累,反正,中国的愤青一定比美国的多。下一步,估计还会有人建议,在纽约的时代广场,在美国所有的重要媒体,花大价钱买广告,来唤醒美国人民的革命意识,让美国选民做出正确的选择。

让人大跌眼镜的是:贸易战真的打起来,只有双输,可是,美国民调却显示,对川普的支持率反倒上升了不少。也就是说,普通民众的多数,还是支持总统的选择,虽然用指数指标投票的华尔街明显的表示不喜欢。虽然这里的高支持率的多数,都是文化水准不高,收入也不高的“低端人口”。可是,就是这样的低端人口,在美国拥有和高端人口同等的投票权,并且占有多数!这个事实,是不是该让中国政府好好的想想?

一场回合下来,中国政府学到了什么吗?会变的聪明一些吗?第一步,是不是该开除那些不靠谱的不学无术,却自以为是,口是心非的北大教授们?中国的最高学府还残留着这样的“精英”,伟大的祖国,您真的现代了吗?

 

 "Not unreasonable" for U.S. to push for fair trade with China

Adam Shell, USA TODAY, April 5, 2018

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says it is “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for fairer trade terms with China, lauds the Trump administration for reforming the tax code and warns that markets may be underestimating the risk of a quicker pace of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

Dimon, the most influential CEO in banking and one of the most closely followed U.S. executives, offered his candid views on markets, trade tensions and government policy in his annual letter to shareholders released today.

Weighing in on the recent trade fight between China and the U.S., Dimon said the U.S. has “entered a time of uncertainty over global trade.” But he stressed that the “proper resolution of serious trade issues is good for the U.S. and for the rest of the world.”

President Trump's complaints about China, Dimon argues, are “legitimate,” noting that China is now the world’s second-largest economy and home to 20% of Fortune 500 companies, yet it “still considers itself a ‘developing nation’ that should not be subject to the same trade rules as the U.S. and other ‘developed’ countries.

Still, while Dimon says it's “not unreasonable” for the U.S. to push for more equal trade terms with China and believes both countries want to resolve their issues, he says there “is always a chance that miscalculations on the part of the various actors could lead to negative outcomes. This obviously creates higher risk and more uncertainty until resolved.”

Other key topics addressed by the well-respected banker include:

Financial Risks

One risk facing financial markets is if the economy gains enough speed to cause inflation and wages to rise more than anticipated, as that could cause the nation’s central bank to hike interest rates more quickly and aggressively than market’s currently believe.

“We have to deal with the possibility that at one point, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may have to take more drastic action than they currently anticipate — reacting to the markets, not guiding the markets,” Dimon wrote. “While in the past, interest rates have been lower and for longer than people expected, they may go higher and faster than people expect.”

A faster rate hike scenario could catch investors off-guard, he warns, and cause markets to "get more volatile."

Trump Economic Policies

Dimon says the new tax cut law that lowered taxes on businesses and individuals and Trump’s push to pare back regulations that were hurting companies’ growth are what was needed to unleash the potential of the economy.

“Our previous tax code,” he wrote, “was increasingly uncompetitive, overly complex, and loaded with special interest provisions that created winners and losers. The good news is that the recent changes in the U.S. tax system have many of the key ingredients to fuel economic expansion.”

Dimon added: “I am pleased that we did the right thing — not the easy thing.”

Regulation

The bank chief also said too often people confuse “more” regulation with “good” regulation, and what’s really needed is “smart” regulation. He says over regulation causes too much red tape and too much time and effort for businesses to comply with rules. He cited an example of it taking 10 years to get a permit to build a bridge, as the type of regulation that is holding back the economy.

“The current administration is taking steps to reduce unnecessary regulation by insisting that congressional rules around cost-benefit analysis be properly applied,” Dimon said. “It is also actively trying to put regulators in the right roles with the proper authority to use commonsense principles to make appropriate changes.”

 

What a trade fight would mean for Trump country

by David M. Drucker,  April 05, 2018 

 

President Trump’s hardball tactics to extract trade concessions from China could crush communities that fuel his political support, with Republicans in Congress paying the price in November.

A Brookings Institution analysis revealed that a U.S.-China trade war would impact agriculture and manufacturing and could disproportionately cost working class jobs in counties Trump carried in the 2016 election. Of the 2,783 counties affected, the president won 2,279; compared to just 449 that went for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Nearly 1.1 million jobs in Trump country are tied to trade with China, according to the Brookings study. Voters there, supportive of the president’s agenda and long eager for the U.S. to combat Beijing’s unfair trade practices, might give the administration latitude to negotiate better terms.

But if the confrontation escalates and the economy suffers, congressional Republicans could shoulder the blame. Already facing a challenging re-election environment, they count a growing economy among their few advantages. They have minimal time to weather any storm and, unlike Trump, can’t rely on the loyalty of the GOP base.

“This could have a huge, negative impact in the midterms — and beyond — if the trade tit for tat continues,” Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, said. Although, he added: “If the president gets concessions and jobs continue to grow and most importantly voters give him credit for that victory, then things will improve for his party.”

The Brookings Institution, a centrist think tank in Washington, examined industries and jobs that would be affected by a trade war with China based on the threats being lobbed back and forth since Trump began moving in March to crack down on Beijing. The Washington Post’s Greg Sargent first reported the initial data, which was later expanded and shared with the Washington Examiner.

Nothing concrete has actually happened, yet. Wall Street, and top executives at corporations who stand to lose business, are operating under the assumption that a deal will be reached before the saber-rattling evolves into an extended showdown.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened down more than 500 points after China responded to threats from the Trump administration to hike tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese imports with a similar proposal to target more than 100 American products, among them a range of automobiles and SUVs. By the time the market closed, it was up 231 points.

“We encourage both governments to work together to resolve issues between these two important economies,” the Ford Motor Company said in a statement.

The agriculture industry, the economic backbone of many rural communities in the heartland, is less sanguine and isn’t waiting for negotiations between Washington and Beijing to falter to sound the alarm. In a press release, the American Soybean Association said “Chinese Retaliation is No Longer a ‘What If’ for Soybean Farmers.”

Soybean farmers export 60 percent of their crop, about $14 billion worth annually, to China. ASA Vice President Davie Stephens, a soybean farmer in Clinton, Ky., said he awoke Wednesday morning to a 30-40 cent per bushel drop in the price of soybeans, which appeared related to the increased specter of a trade war.

“Farmers are worried,” Stephens said in a telephone conversation. “My local community would feel the impact.”

Trump at times has been bellicose in his rhetoric, vowing that he would do whatever is necessary to force China to treat U.S. imports fairly. “When you’re already $500 Billion DOWN, you can’t lose,” he tweeted. But the administration in general sought to calm nerves, with top officials insisting that Trump is intent on avoiding a major spat with Beijing.

“You know, there are carrots and sticks in life, but he is ultimately a free trader. He's said that to me, he's said it publicly. So he wants to solve this with the least amount of pain,” Larry Kudlow, the president’s chief economic adviser and an ardent free trader, told reporters.

Republicans worried about the midterm elections don’t sound reassured. Hoping to run on a $1.3 trillion tax overhaul that accelerated economic growth in the first quarter of the year and delivered massive tax cuts, Republicans have seen their economic message usurped by Trump’s proposed tariffs.

Worse, Republicans fear that an unintended trade war might erase the economic gains they’re depending on to buttress the party against political headwinds that threaten to wipe out their majorities in the House and Senate. As Brookings discovered, more than 2.1 million jobs could be adversely affected by a confrontation with China, including almost 1 million in the 449 Clinton counties.

That’s because China’s potential retaliatory targets include white-collar industries such as pharmaceuticals and aerospace. House Republicans are defending 23 districts won by Clinton 17 months ago, and trade war aftershocks that rumble through Clinton counties could add to GOP woes in the affected red seats.

“If I were a Democrat, what I would be running up Trump’s ass is how these shenanigans are DESTROYING values in 401ks and college savings plans,” a GOP strategist said. “Most people don’t know a cashew farmer or whiskey distiller but do worry about their own retirement account and paying for college.”


浏览(4164) (14) 评论(20)
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作者:lijunzy 留言时间:2018-04-09 04:25:39

作者如果在摆脱了自卑心态再写这篇文章, 会更显智慧。

回复 | 0
作者:牛仔 回复 gmuoruo 留言时间:2018-04-07 16:30:03

老郭啊,你指望川普对土共强硬,你会很失望的。你没有看过川普在故宫的照片?川普是最不靠谱的老流氓。只会信口开河骗骗你这样的黄川粉和uneducated deplorables.

回复 | 0
作者:牛仔 回复 山人无妙计 留言时间:2018-04-07 15:41:10

山人说的有道理,土共,特别是袁二,对中国和世界的危害还没有真正被西方的精英认识到。

回复 | 0
作者:山人无妙计 留言时间:2018-04-07 14:17:57

美国国要斗赢土共不是那么容易吧?一个从山沟里的土匪能够打垮国民党八百万军队,虽然成败因素很多,如张学良兵,苏俄资助,抗日战争消耗国力而土共假抗日真发展,蒋介石无能等,但是美国根本就不清共产主义将给文明世界带来的危害。一直到国民党兵败如山倒时,李宗仁请求美国支持,免得将会付出更大的代价。直到抗美援越战争爆发,美国才警觉共产主义的威胁。但是美国不改天真容易哄骗的本性,给中共最惠国待遇和加入,WTO, 美国的政治精英为中国济发展了,必然会走向民主自由。恰恰相反,中共济强大了反而走向独裁而且挑战美国霸主地位,在许多重大国际问题上中共都让美国感到头痛,如中国支持朝核和串联俄罗斯。开放改革后的几十万留学生、学者、观光客和生意人、偷渡客、亲属移民,虽然给美国带来济收入和廉价劳动力,当然也不少科技人才为美国作为贡献。但是占用福利和潜伏不少身在曹营心在汉的人,正如庄则栋说的多送些人去美国将是第五纵队。中共太聪明了!中美贸易战,美国不输就不错了,朝鲜人宁可吃草都要发展核武,中国十几亿宁可生活受到严重影响也是要和美国斗到底。这就是中共的本钱和一贯的伎俩。

回复 | 0
作者:lcqyc 留言时间:2018-04-07 10:35:08

中国每个五年计划都有着国家发展的战略意图,不是当然的放任,十几个五年计划也达到了目标。美国是一届总统一个目标,中美现在的博弈对美国来说扼杀中国的2025计划,但在这个过程中却使得人民币崛起,人民币慢慢成为世界流通货币。未来的经济大国生产大国只有中国。人民币伴随着市场发展而走向世界。美国失去了什么,中国又能得到什么。贸易战中美都没有赢,中国失去了更多的美元,美国老百姓生活短期也受到了影响,但是长期呢?

回复 | 1
作者:西岸 留言时间:2018-04-06 19:27:02

这种事情是见仁见智的性质,取决与你想达到什么目的。比如招商是不是显摆?当然是。广告是不是,也当然是。

中国的经济已经不是中国自己可以消化的,不得不向外发展,那么就不得不向外宣传自己的能力,包括吹牛。

历史上不论什么国家经济发展到了这个地步,都是这样,并不是中国特殊。

因为如果你不愿意走出去,本质上还是闭关锁国的概念,试图依靠自己内部消费来实现发展是不可能的。美国有比中国更大的国内市场,而且是很成熟的市场,为什么还那么在意外贸逆差问题?不外贸不就行了?

因为你只有从世界上挣钱,才是“额外”的钱,否则大家互相剪头发也能创造GDP。

自古以来,欧洲君王就知道贸易的重要性,因为客观上是发挥自己的长项,而不需要面面俱到做麻雀。而要发展对外贸易,就需要宣传自己,甚至在殖民主义时代用武力宣传自己。

而中国的历史教训也给了反面例子。

也就是目前中国的这种姿态是最正常不过的事情。

回复 | 2
作者:gmuoruo 回复 牛仔 留言时间:2018-04-06 18:23:23

牛崽同学,原来你是怕川普对土共不强硬?

所以你们更要支持川普了,以防他顶不住华尔街 + 媒体的攻击。

回复 | 0
作者:looking 留言时间:2018-04-06 15:05:50

习受他的戏子老婆影响太深,戏子都爱显摆。俩文盲满世界大撒币,臭显摆,这下,祸国殃民了。

回复 | 8
作者:牛仔 回复 gmuoruo 留言时间:2018-04-06 14:37:46

"你支持川普对土共强硬么?"

你以为泼皮川普真的会对土共强硬?老郭正是图样图森破。川普对土共的表面强硬是不可能被利益挡住的。记得川普的豪言壮语“墨西哥会付墙费”,加拿大和墨西哥对米国不公平贸易,他一定会取消NAFTA?

回复 | 1
作者:马甲 留言时间:2018-04-06 14:15:23

水满了就会溢出来,想掖着藏着都难,恐怕不是显摆的问题。这个世界到一定程度还是需要适当的调整一下,只要不过头,对双方都未必就是坏事。

回复 | 1
作者:侃客 留言时间:2018-04-06 13:59:21

一个政党如果能领导一方人民过上幸福生活,足以受得起正确的党,如果具备足够的包容性,那就被称得起伟大,但往往受极左思潮影响,容不得不同意见,对异己人不予接纳,对自己伟大性大打折扣,以致于留下土共恶名,看来也要与时俱进!

回复 | 3
作者:吕鱼冰 留言时间:2018-04-06 12:58:44

“川普说,中国经济已经成为世界第二大经济体,早已经不再是发展中国家,而且,中国人长期的,肆无忌惮的盗窃美国的知识智慧产权,是可忍孰不可忍,是到了时候,必须调整贸易政策,让中国人适应新的变化,和惩罚他们难改的恶习”

回复 | 4
作者:gmuoruo 回复 牛仔 留言时间:2018-04-06 12:30:05

政客负责说话,选民负责判断。

美国“高端人口”选希拉莉,知道她是花架子,华尔街收买了的。“低端人口”早就知道希拉莉的本相,跟本不上当,压宝川普。

现在“高端人口”骂川普打贸易战,“低端人口”支持川普,谁的判断准确还不一清二楚么?

你支持川普对土共强硬么?

回复 | 2
作者:侃客 留言时间:2018-04-06 12:11:25

事到今日,该到摊牌清算的时候了。第一回合下来,尽显大国的气派,从舆论和团结一致立场来论,中国略占上成,没办法,这是有中国国体政体决定的。看看川普待遇,全世界为美国人民争取利益,而没完没了遭受通俄门调查和艳遇门宣扬,大家不要忘记这爷们,是在免费为美国人民服务,这是一种什么样的精神!

贸易当然是两情相悦两厢情愿才会形成,要打贸易战,当然大家都受伤,当然也有受益,要不美国川普政府傻。美中贸易严重不平衡,有诸多因素而形成,有世贸规则偏袒发展中的国家,美国往届政府疏忽,更关键是中国聪明上进。通过短短十多年的积累,中美贸易眼下形成了杨白老和黄世仁的关系,就像美国黄世仁声讨中国杨白老,杨白老不但不还,还挺横,看来世贸规则也要与时俱进!

中国一直不赞同美国对贸易逆差的计算方法,异议出口值还是产品增加值,产品只是加工还是本土制造,内资生产还是外资加工,2017年逆差2750亿美元还是3750亿美元,争议或许能讨到谈判的筹码,但抹不去贸易逆差存在。尽管贸易逆差多数由三资企业加工贸易形成的,可偏偏这部分是美国想讨回的部分。可怕的是当下中国,把许多产品的简单加工,逐步成熟为本土生产,所谓2025中国制造,直接威胁到美国和其它发达国家优势,美国当然会出来挑战你。你就是再狠再快,再团结,还是要被割肉的,想开了,出来混,总是要还的,更何况现在是膘肥体壮,也担待得起。

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作者:牛仔 回复 gmuoruo 留言时间:2018-04-06 10:36:58

哈哈,你我正好相反,希拉莉竞选时口号是要对土共强硬,所以土共动员了在美的所有力量来支持泼皮川普。你只要查一下微信上2016大选前的赞美泼皮川普和其家族的文章就可见一斑。

泼皮川普常常信口开河,能办成什么事还很难说,到底是否能为米国得到好处,还很难说,他自己家族得到好处是肯定的。

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作者:gmuoruo 回复 牛仔 留言时间:2018-04-06 10:06:24

牛仔 同学,谢谢你的补充,让我的观点更加完全。土共承诺 WTO 条件,于2001 年被接纳 。历经小布什八年,土共的阴招已经再明显不过,危害越来越大,但小奥八年,就是不敢反击。

没听说过 fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me 么?

土共见小奥这么软弱,希拉莉这么好买,越发狂妄起来了,再不遮掩“暗中较量”了。没想到美国的“低端人口”力量太大,土共的如意算盘翻了。

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作者:牛仔 回复 gmuoruo 留言时间:2018-04-06 07:40:30

老郭啊,你还真有点像郭沫若,为你的皇上川普唱赞歌不遗余力。Colinton交班时,米国财政是有盈余的。小布什的8年折腾,08年他交棒时情况不用再说了吧。2002-2003年时,天朝美元换人民币有所谓的黑市,比官价有高好多,到2008年天朝的美元已经没处花。是小布什的8年成就了土共。流氓加泼皮川普对付土共能否赢?估计不乐观。土共只有私下稍稍给点泼皮川普好处,泼皮川普就会就范。

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作者:gmuoruo 留言时间:2018-04-06 06:53:24

哈,哈,哈,土共耍阴招二十来年,但美国看透它的人多的是。只是小奥民主党比较软脚,“高端人口”装傻,越发让土共狂妄,没想到美国“低端人口”可不是土共国屁民,选上川普对付土共泼皮,欧盟日本加拿大有了美国领头,也会硬起来的,土共的好日子到头了。

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作者:汪翔 留言时间:2018-04-06 06:23:18

如果真的打起来,一定是双输!问题是,最终一定打不起来,还是会以协商解决。协商的结果,美国一定会有所收获,中国一定会做出美国想看到的至少是部分让步。当然,美国不可能收获心满意足!

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作者:香椿树1 留言时间:2018-04-06 05:19:10

怎么会肯定双输, 如果川普认为肯定输,他怎么会打贸易战。 美国百姓也认为贸易战自己一定能赢,所以才支持川普打贸易战。 美国经济有问题总要找一个发泄口, 中国显摆不显摆都会中招。

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