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投资机会来临了吗:CMG和PCLN 2012-08-15 06:40:15

股票观察:CMGPCLN

这是两家很热门的股票,也是最近突然大跌的股票。是不是一个难得的投资机会来临?大家读读这里的两篇文章,会有不少的收获的。我的感觉是:绝对值得好好的观察,很可能在这之后有不错的投资机会。

Is Chipotle Now A Buy?

Jacob Steinberg

As of closing on August 10th 2012, Chipotle's (CMG) share price was $295 which is 34% lower than the 52-week high price of $442 reached just a few months ago. For months, many analysts warned that Chipotle was overpriced and it was due for a sharp correction. Even I had a couple of articles about Chipotle stating that it was one of the most overpriced companies in the market. Of course, there were also many analysts that were overly optimistic regarding the stock, setting up price targets as high as $500 for the company. Even the company itself issuedwarnings regarding the slowing same-store growth and contracting margins in the last couple quarters, but that wasn't good enough for many of the overly optimistic investors and analysts of the company. Now that the correction has happened, is Chipotle a good buy?

First, I will look at it from a psychological perspective. For the last several years, Chipotle was the "sweetheart" of Wall Street. When a company becomes a Wall Street Sweetheart, it can rally for a long time with or without a legit reason. But again, many times Wall Street dumps its sweethearts and these stocks take a long time to recover. For example, during the dot.com bubble, Cisco (CSCO) was one of Wall Street's sweethearts, and for the last decade, the company's stock price appreciation failed to impress many investors as it fell way below the company's earnings growth. Now, we don't know if Chipotle will be "dumped" from the Wall Street Sweetheart status or not. Psychologically speaking, if it continues to receive support from the analysts and large investors, the stock price can recover quickly regardless of the company's fundamentals. Otherwise, it may be a tough road for the company even if it develops the strongest fundamentals ever. This is just the psychological aspects of the matter.

As much as the numbers go, the company's P/E ratio dropped from 57 to 36 in the last few months. This is encouraging for the investors wanting to get in. As Chipotle continues to enjoy double-digit growth and has very low amount of debt in its balance sheet, the company could support a P/E ratio of 30. While the current P/E ratio for Chipotle is still a bit high, the psychological factors I mentioned above will be the real determinants of the bottom price for the company.

Because Chipotle already got many of the premier locations in American cities, most of the company's future growth will rely on either international markets or offering different niches, such as a Chinese restaurant. Currently, the company has very little exposure to international markets with a few restaurants here and there. Outside of the USA, the company is not well known and it is difficult to know what kind of reaction and demand it can get in places like Europe, Asia and Latin America. The company will have to do its homework and determine which countries would be more receptive to its products, or perhaps offer completely new products in countries that may not be as receptive to its current line of products.

The company's same-store sales growth rate is 8%, which is much higher than the industry average of 3%. Yet, this is not able to satisfy the investors of the company as it enjoys a higher P/E ratio than the industry average. The company sees growth through both new stores and existing stores.

Of the 22 analysts covering the stock, 14 recently increased their earnings estimate for this year for the company. The analysts currently expect the company to earn between $8.61 and $9.30 per share. The average earnings estimate for the company is $9.02 per share, giving it a forward P/E ratio of 32. In 2013, the analysts are expecting the company to make $10.94 per share followed by $13.42 in 2013 and $16.75 in 2014. This would yield a forward P/E ratio of 17 for 2014. Of course, if the company expands overseas successfully, the earnings might be much higher than the analyst estimates. According to Yahoo Finance, Chipotle has $405 million of cash, $124 million of short term investments and $169 million of long term investments, giving it cash and equivalents of $698 million. Given the company's market cap of $9.36 billion, its cash holdings make up 7.46% of the company's market value.

Back in April, when Chipotle's market value was divided by its number of restaurants, each restaurant was valued at $11 million. Obviously this was a very high valuation for a burrito restaurant with a simple business model. Today -according to the latest earnings call- Chipotle has 1,316 active restaurants. According to the company's market value, each Chipotle restaurant has an average value of $7.11 million. This is not a very attractive valuation either but much better than it used to be.

I rate Chipotle as hold as I am still not totally convinced of Chipotle's valuation. If the company's share price falls further and carries its P/E ratio at or below 30, I might consider initiating a position in this company. Until then, I will be on the sidelines.

 

What To Do With Priceline?

August 14, 2012

 

In this earnings season, one company after another blamed the economic weakness in Europe for the deceleration in their growth rates. After companies like Ford (F), Nike (NKE) and Apple (AAPL), Priceline (PCLN) also joined the camp of companies suffering from the European recession. Priceline also counted the strong US Dollar as one of the reasons for the disappointing earnings figures. The company sees a decelerating growth rate in the next few quarters and this trend is not likely to change until European economy can get on track (which in my personal view will take multiple years to accomplish).

In the last few years, Priceline had an impressive amount of growth. The company's rally in the last couple years was very similar to the one in late 1990s during the dot.com boom, with the exception that this time the rally was tied to fundamentals rather than pure speculation. In the last decade, the earnings of the company grew at such a high rate that a possible 30% growth rate looks like a disappointing figure at the moment. In the next quarter Priceline expects its international bookings to grow by 25-30%, whereas the analysts were expecting a figure near 50%. The company generates a significant portion of its revenues from Europe and the slowness in Europe might hurt growth prospects of the company in the near term.

In the last quarter, Priceline posted an earnings growth of 37% compared to the same period a year ago. This may sound impressive, however it fells far below the growth rate in the last several quarters. Many analysts and investors fear that the company's growth might slow down from here as the company nears maturity. Another issue for Priceline is presented by increased pressure from the competition such as Expedia and Orbitz. Currently the company enjoys a strong market share in North America and Europe and its market share seems to be stabilizing. For the time being, Priceline will have to seek growth in markets outside of Europe such as Latin America and Asia in order to keep its momentum going.

It is hard to tell how much of the deceleration in Priceline's earnings growth is due to the temporary economic conditions and how much of it is due to other pressures such as competition. The answer to this question will determine whether Priceline is still a buy or not. One day after Priceline, Orbitz announced very similar results, hinting that the problem might be across the industry and not specific to Priceline alone.

Most analysts covering the stock have lowered their earnings expectations for Priceline. The analysts now expect the company to earn $28.77 this year, $34.54 next year and $40.34 in 2014. Given the company's current share price of $559, we are looking at forward P/E ratios of 19, 16 and 14 for the next 3 years. This is not bad considering the $3.94 billion of cash and short term investments held by the company. The company's long term debt sits at $938 million. When a company has a strong balance sheet coupled with double-digit annual growth, it can sustain a relatively high P/E ratio compared to one with a weaker balance sheet and lower rate of growth.

Priceline is currently far away from its 52-week high price of $775 per share. To be precise, the company's current share price of $559 is 28% lower than the company's 52-week high. The analysts have a wide range of price targets between $615 and $760 for the company, with the average price target sitting at $693. Goldman Sachs (GS) recentlyreduced its price target from $860 to $760, keeping the "buy" rating. Discounting for the company's liquid assets and assigning a P/E ratio south of 20 would give the company a target range around $650 for the next 12 months.

Now back to the question, what do we do with Priceline? Younger investors will find a lot of growth potential in the company. While the company's growth rate was below the analyst expectations, it was still impressively high. This company will keep growing at a double-digit rate for at least 5-6 years and it is far from maturity. If you've been waiting to get in Priceline, this is a good time to get in. On the other hand, if you are ready to retire within a couple years and don't want to wait 3-4 years to get a return on your investment, I suggest that you choose a less volatile growth company such as Apple. Despite the recent plunge in its share price, Priceline is not a value stock; it is a pure growth stock and will continue to be for a while. This is important to keep in mind before investing in this company.

Those who can afford to buy at least 100 shares of this company should reduce their risk by writing covered calls. Currently, the calls that expire in January 2013 with a strike price of $600 yield a premium of $36.40 which provides protection until the stock price falls below $522.

 

  中国概念股贱卖为那般?

 

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· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
【科幻小说:幽灵对决】
· 幽灵对决:异象与联盟
· 幽灵对决:意识的纠缠
· 科幻小说:幽灵对决: 首次攻击
【魏奎生 作品】
· 童年记忆
· 那年,那月,那思念
· 故乡的老宅
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
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