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PCLN的成功秘密 2012-09-11 05:59:47

 

        PCLN是互联网泡沫时代的产物,也是泡沫破灭之后为数不多的幸存者,更是华尔街难得一见的成功者。它的成功经营故事,值得我们好好思索,他的公司股票,也值得我们好好的关注。

 

How Jeffery Boyd took Priceline from dot-bomb to highflier

September 11, 2012: 5:00 AM ET

By Jon Birger, contributor

 

FORTUNE -- To say that Priceline CEO Jeffery Boyd's persona is different from that of the Negotiator -- the boisterous, charmingly obnoxious Priceline pitchman portrayed so delightfully by William Shatner -- is an epic understatement.

Boyd may try to dress like an Internet entrepreneur -- he greets me tieless and sockless, wearing docksiders, a button-down shirt, and linen slacks -- but the 56-year-old still looks and sounds a lot like the buttoned-up former Sullivan & Cromwell corporate lawyer he once was. When I met Boyd at Priceline's headquarters in Norwalk, Conn., in mid-August, Priceline's stock was reeling.Boyd had just warned that third-quarter travel bookings were growing more modestly in Europe because of economic weakness, and Wall Street panicked, sending the stock down 17%. "Deterioration or Deceleration?" blared the title of an analyst report on Priceline (PCLN), the world's leading standalone online travel agency, with $4.8 billion in annual revenue, vs. Expedia's (EXPE) $3.7 billion.

The blustery Shatner (and certainly many of Boyd's CEO peers) might have responded by denouncing Wall Street's overreaction or by hyping all the reasons any dip in Priceline's prodigious growth must be viewed as anomalous. Boyd? He shrugs off the wipeout of $6 billion in market capitalization as if it were a paper jam in the second-floor photocopier. "Some managements tout their stocks and really try to encourage people to invest. We don't do that," says Boyd. "Our job is to manage the business, not the stock. The business is doing great and gaining market share, but we've also been very candid that growth rates do decelerate over time for any company now this big."

Whether investors view such candor as scary or refreshing probably depends on how long they've owned the stock. Among mutual funds, 72% of Priceline's owners are growth funds, some of which bail at the first whiff of bad news. But investors who remember Priceline's dysfunction under founder Jay Walker and have held on to the stock during large chunks of the Boyd era are more appreciative. "There's not a lot of the hype that you sometimes see coming out of Silicon Valley," Barclays analyst Anthony DiClemente says of Boyd's tenure. Indeed, Priceline lies far from the high-tech hub of Silicon Valley, and Boyd likes it that way. Its humdrum offices lack any whiff of Internet chic ("We prefer to spend money on things that grow the business," he says); one advantage to its Connecticut location, he adds, is fewer bidding wars for programmers and web designers than in the opportunity-rich Bay Area. "There are a lot of CEOs who are very good at the talk, at the bluster, at the marketing message," adds Mike Lippert, portfolio manager of the Baron Opportunity Fund (BIOPX). "That's not Jeff Boyd. He's kind of a bland guy who tells it like it is and lets the results speak for themselves."

Those results have been superb. Since becoming CEO in 2002, Boyd has turned this former poster child of the dotcom bust into one of the great e-commerce success stories -- taking it from a loss of $19 million in 2002 to $1.1 billion in profit in 2011. The stock has gone from $8 to $604 a share over the same time. Even at its current size -- with $4.8 billion in revenue and a market value of $29 billion -- Priceline remains one of the fastest-growing companies in the U.S., checking in at No. 14 on Fortune's Fastest-Growing Companies list. The question now is whether weaker-than-expected second-quarter earnings and that cautious guidance for the third represent a mere lull or the beginning of the end to Priceline's amazing growth story. Boyd remains optimistic, but it certainly doesn't sound as if he expects the company to be sitting near the top of America's fastest growers for much longer. "We've been telling investors for years that when a business gets to be the size of our business, it's very, very hard mathematically to maintain high growth rates," he says. Even so, Priceline trades at 20 times projected 2012 earnings, an attractive multiple for a company that analysts expect will grow its earnings 29% this year.

Boyd came to Priceline as general counsel in 2000 on what has to be one of the more random career paths for a future CEO. From 1995 to 2000 he had been the general counsel for Oxford Health Plans, which, coincidentally, was located in the same Norwalk building as Priceline's headquarters. ("Part of it was geography," he admits.) Lured by the prospect of dotcom riches, several Oxford executives had already jumped ship to Priceline, and among them was the head of HR -- who eventually recruited Boyd. "Priceline was engaged in a lot of deal activity at that time, trying to build a bunch of international joint ventures," says Boyd. "For a deal lawyer like myself, what could be more fun than that?"

At the time, Priceline was a true dotcom darling, one with a well-known "Name your own price" gimmick and a founder, Walker, who in hindsight was better at raising money from investors than making money for them. Before Priceline ever turned a profit in the travel sphere, it had already expanded into "Name your own price" gas fill-ups, groceries, insurance, mortgages, long-distance phone service, and new-car sales. The company lost $1.1 billion in 1999, and when the dotcom bubble burst the following year, Priceline stock cratered from $974 to $7 a share. As Boyd says, "There was a credibility issue." (Walker could not be reached for comment, but a Priceline spokesperson says he left the board in 2000 and has no involvement in the company.)

By 2002, when Boyd took over as CEO, the company seemed destined for the same sad fate as Webvan, Pets.com, and all the other early dotcom busts most investors would prefer to forget. But the one thing Priceline had going for it that those others did not was a popular, recognizable brand. While Priceline's "Name your own price" service certainly wasn't for everyone -- yes, you can fly from Boston to Miami for $100, but only if you don't mind a six-hour layover in Dallas -- Shatner's Negotiator character, who shows up out of the blue to help consumers save money, immediately resonated with a public frustrated by confusing airfares and amused by the former Star Trek star's self-parody. "The problem with a lot of advertising is people remember the ad but don't remember which brand it is for," explains Boyd. "People very quickly associated the Priceline brand with William Shatner, and the benefit for us was instant name recognition."

Boyd's turnaround plan for Priceline centered on shuttering the nontravel businesses, and then, even more controversially, focusing Priceline's resources on hotel bookings instead of "Name your own price" airfares. The problem with airfares was twofold: The Internet had made ticket pricing more transparent, and then the devastating impact of 9/11 forced the airlines to downsize. More transparent pricing plus fewer empty seats meant fewer opportunities for a bargain travel business built on last-minute ticket sales. Back then, 80% of Priceline's business was "Name your own price" airline tickets. "We were really struggling to maintain pricing and inventory in that environment," says Boyd.

Even absent the airline industry issues, Boyd had doubts about the broader appeal of "Name your own price" airfares. Consumers had little control over the time of their flights or the length of any layovers. While a college student might be willing to accept such uncertainty in exchange for a cheaper fare, vacationers or business travelers were much less apt to do so.

Another controversial change: Boyd decided to offer traditional pricing along with "Name your own price." While some within the company thought that would confuse consumers and damage the Priceline brand, Boyd saw mostly upside. "We felt very strongly that it would only help build a better product because it makes 'Name your own price' that much easier to use," he says. "Our advertising used to say, 'Shop around at other sites and then come back to Priceline.' What company in the United States sends the consumer to their competitor?"

Priceline earned its first profit in 2003, but the company's true turning points occurred in 2004 and 2005, when Boyd acquired two European hotel reservation sites -- the U.K.'s Active Hotels and Amsterdam-based Booking.com. Priceline's earnings growth and stock market success since then have been attributable largely to those two acquisitions -- Booking.com in particular. "It would be tough to argue that there's been a better acquisition in Internet history," says Thomas White, an analyst at Macquarie Securities. "It's why the stock has been such a home run," says White. Both he and Barclays' DiClemente believe that many investors don't realize that 60% of Priceline's revenues are now coming from overseas. "One of the first things I tell [new] investors is to put William Shatner out of your mind," says White. (While U.S. users can also use Booking.com, Boyd doesn't worry too much about cannibalization.)

Boyd had good reason to target Europe. Europeans typically have twice as many vacation days as Americans, and unlike us, they tend to take all of them. Moreover, the growth of discount airlines in Europe such as EasyJet and Ryanair have increased the popularity of "city breaks" -- the European equivalent of a weekend getaway.

Best of all, the European market for online travel services still has much room to grow. Compared with the U.S., a much smaller percentage of travelers book hotels online, a byproduct of the fragmented nature of the European hotel industry. There are far fewer big hotel chains, which means travelers are more likely to be considering stays at independently owned hotels -- which rarely have their own websites. Unless travelers are familiar with the city they are visiting, it's hard for them to differentiate the overpriced fleabags from the gems worth every euro. Priceline typically collects a 15% commission on every room reserved at Booking.com; in return, the hotels get access to more potential customers. "If you own a great hotel in Prague, you're probably going to have a very small marketing budget," says Darren Huston, a former Microsoft (MSFT) and Starbucks (SBUX) executive who became Booking.com's CEO in September 2011. "You might get to a certain level of occupancy via word of mouth, but you would have difficulty marketing to Russians or Brazilians or people from the Middle East because you don't have a brand name." Booking.com helps level the playing field.

But the European focus is also partially responsible for the recent earnings miss, which Boyd made no attempt to sugarcoat during an Aug. 7 earnings call. "We're assuming fairly significant deceleration [for] growth rates from here on," he said, citing concern about the economy and "our worry that conditions will worsen, particularly in Europe."

Can Priceline still be a growth company if Europe doesn't snap out of its malaise? Probably yes. Priceline is still expecting 15% to 25% earnings growth in the third quarter, and the company has an increasing presence in Asia via its Agoda brand as well as a new partnership between Booking.com and Ctrip, China's top online travel site. Another potential growth business is rental cars, boosted by the 2010 acquisition of global car-rental site TravelJigsaw.

Not all the recent news out of Priceline has been so weighty. Shatner's Negotiator character has been MIA from Priceline's TV commercials since January, when he was presumably killed after plunging off a bridge in a doomed tour bus. But last month the Negotiator was resurrected in a new TV spot in which he realizes that someone has to tell the world that Priceline now has "even easier, faster ways to save you money on hotels, flights, and cars."

Explaining Shatner's hiatus, Boyd says it's important that consumers understand "the full spectrum of products available" at Priceline. In June, for instance, Priceline launched a new "opaque" product called Express Deals, which basically mimics rival Hotwire and allows consumers to get published discounts on hotels -- but you don't know the identity of the hotel until after you've paid. Since "Name your own price" was so synonymous with Shatner, Boyd felt he needed a fresh message for Express Deals. The campaign with Shatner going over the bridge, Boyd explains, "was a way to demonstrate that there was more going on [at] Priceline."

But the people wanted their Shatner. According to the company, 94% of Priceline customers surveyed wanted the Negotiator to return, and in a bit of either shrewd or serendipitous timing, Shatner's resurrection became the Priceline news of the day, displacing the disappointing second-quarter earnings. The people got their way, but the hubbub made clear the disconnect between how Priceline is perceived by casual investors and the true international nature of its business.

Boyd doesn't seem terribly worried about this. He's more focused on growth opportunities in Asia and South America. In the new Shatner ads, the Negotiator is miraculously found alive by a Priceline agent who tries to convince him that his mission isn't over. Jeffery Boyd needs no such convincing.

This story is from the September 24, 2012 issue of Fortune.

 

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· 国美股权之争:两个男人的战争
· 现在是投资国美的最佳时机吗?
· “刺客”邹晓春起底
· 邹晓春:已经做好最坏的打算
· 愚昧的陈晓与窃笑的贝恩
· 贝恩资本的真面目(附图片)
· 陈晓为什么“勾结”贝恩资本
【《乔布斯的故事》】
· 苹果消息跟踪:如果苹果进入电视
· 乔布斯故事之十四:嬉皮士
· 乔布斯的故事之十三 犹太商人
· 乔布斯的故事之十二:禅心
· 乔布斯的故事之十一:精神导师
· 乔布斯故事之十:大学选择
· 乔布斯的故事之九:个性的形成
· 乔布斯的故事之八:吸食大麻
· 乔布斯的故事之七:胆大妄为
· 乔布斯的故事之六:贪玩的孩子
【中国美容业】
· 国内日化品牌屡被收购 浙江本土
· 外资日化品牌再下一城 丁家宜外
· 强生收购大宝 并购价刷新中国日
· 从两千元到一百亿的寻梦之路
【加盟店经营】
· 转载:太平洋百货撤出北京市场
· Franchise Laws Protect Investo
· Groupon拒绝谷歌收购内幕
· GNC 到底值多少钱?
· 杨国安对话苏宁孙为民:看不见的
· 张近东:苏宁帝国征战史
· 连锁加盟店成功经营的四大要素
· 加盟店经营管理的五大核心问题
· 高盛抢占新地盘 10月将入股中国
【《解读日本》】
· 东京人不是冷静 是麻木冷漠!
· 日本灾难给投资者带来怎样的机会
· 日本地震灾难对世界经济格局的影
· 美国对日本到底信任几何?
· 大地震带来日元大升值的秘密
· 日本原来如此不堪一击
· 灾难面前的日本人民(3)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(2)
· 灾难面前的日本人民(1)
【《乔布斯的商战》】
· 苹果给你上的一堂价值投资课
· 纪念硅谷之父诺伊斯八十四岁诞辰
· 乔布斯的商战(6): 小富靠勤、中
· 乔布斯的商战(5): 搏击命运,机
· 乔布斯的商战(4):从巨富到赤
· 乔布斯的商战(1):偶然与必然
· 让成功追随梦想:悼念乔布斯
【《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)】
· 《鹞鹰》(谍战小说,原创)
【盛世危言】
· 美国长期信用等级下调之后?
· 建一流大学到底缺什么?
· 同样是命,为什么这些孩子的就那
· 中国式“贫民富翁”为何难产
· 做人,你敢这厶牛吗?
· 言论自由与第一夫人变猴子
· “奈斯比特现象”(下)
· “奈斯比特现象”(上)
· 理性从政和智慧当官
· 中国对美五大优势
【第一部 《逃离》】
· 朋友,后会有期
· 师兄,人品低劣
· 开心,老友相见
· 拯救,有心无力
· 别了,无法回头
· 对呀,我得捞钱
· 哭吧,烧尽激情
· 爱情,渐行渐远
· 再逢,尴尬面对
· 不错,真的成熟
【《毒丸》(谍战)】
· 毒丸(13)
· 毒丸(12)
· 毒丸(11)
· 毒丸(10)
· 毒丸(9)
· 毒丸(8)
· 毒丸(7)
· 毒丸(6)
· 毒丸(5)
· 毒丸(4)
【《美国小镇故事》】
· 拜金女(五):免费精子
· 拜金女(四):小女孩的忧伤
· 拜金女(三):丑小鸭变白天鹅
· 拜金女(二):艰难移民路
· 拜金女(一):恶名在外
· 拯救罗伯特(四之四)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(下)
· 奇葩的穆斯林(上)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之三)
· 拯救罗伯特(四之二)
【《追风》(战争小说)】
· 追风:第二十五章
· 追风:第二十四章
· 追风:第二十三章
· 追风:第二十二章
· 追风:第二十一章
· 追风:第二十章
· 追风:第十九章
· 追风:第十八章
· 追风:第十七章
· 追风:第十六章
【菜园子】
· 春天到了,你的大蒜开长了吗?(
· 春天到了,该种韭菜了
· 室内种花,注意防癌
· 我的美国菜园子(3)
· 我的美国菜园子(2)
· 我的美国菜园子(1)
【科幻小说:幽灵对决】
· 幽灵对决:异象与联盟
· 幽灵对决:意识的纠缠
· 科幻小说:幽灵对决: 首次攻击
【魏奎生 作品】
· 童年记忆
· 那年,那月,那思念
· 故乡的老宅
【《爱国是个啥?》】
· 爱国(1): 爱国心是熏陶出来的
【美国投资移民】
· 美国投资移民议题(2)
· 美国投资移民议题(1)
【理性人生】
· 关于汽车保险,你不能不知的
· 感恩之感
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(2
· 什么是男人的成功?
· 失败男人背后站着怎样的女人(1
· 转载:巴菲特的财富观
· 痛悼79年湖北高考理科状元蒋国兵
【《格林伯格传》】
· 114亿人民币的损失该怪谁
· 基于避孕套的哲理
· 成功投资八大要领
· 企业制度的失败是危机的根源
· 斯皮策买春,错在哪?
【《奥巴马大传》】
· 一日省
· 追逐我的企盼
· 保持积极乐观的生活态度
· 陌生的微笑
· 奥巴马营销角度谈心理
· 神奇小子奥巴马
· 相信奇迹、拥抱奇迹、创造奇迹
· 什么样的人最可爱:献给我心中的
· 希拉里和奥巴马将帅谈
· 是你教会了别人怎样对待你
【参考文章】
· 美国最省油的八种汽车
· 美国房市最糟糕的十大州
· 美国历史上最富有的十位总统
· 世界十大债务大国
· 新鲜事:巴菲特投资IBM
· 星巴克的五美元帮助产生就业机会
· 转载: 苹果前CEO:驱逐乔布斯非
· 华尔街日报:软件将吃掉整个世界
· 林靖东: 惠普与乔布斯的“后PC时
· 德国是如何成为欧洲的中国的
【开博的领悟】
· 打造强国需要不同声音
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