没有人会知道顶部和底部在哪！如果谁很肯定的告诉你和证明给你他的正确性，那么，他除了是骗子之外，就是喝多了在自我意淫。

这种不识时务的“自以为是”，就是人类自我过于自信的结果和本能，也是让智者得以从中获利的基础。只是，能够做到这种“大智若愚”的，能够在大众眼皮子底下做“傻子”的人，确实是太少。

承担合理的风险去获得合理的利润，保持一定“长期”的忍耐力，恐怕是在股市投资获得成功最重要的一点。

这不，在股市大踏步前进的今天，又有不少人在唱衰。他们唱衰的理由，无非就是：股市的市盈率太高，远高于历史平均水平；促进经济继续快速成长的动力已经不足，经济恢复也远没有人们预期的那么好；作为世界经济复苏重要动力之一的中国经济面临巨大的风险；中国的高价房市和由此带来的巨大金融风险，就是一颗随时将会爆炸的定时炸弹！

短期来看，政府可能会短期关门；中东的动荡可能会带来石油价格的大幅上升；回暖的房市可能会再次走凉。

还有人喜欢以哲学家的语气警告人们：股市不可能走到天上，有涨就必然有落！看着吧，我肯定再次正确。

说实在话，这些说法，对于我，都是正确的。不同的是，股市波动有短期和长期之分。如果你在乎短期，很可能你会错失从继续上升中获利的机会；如果你在乎长期，你可能又会在股市真正的下跌之时，由于没有足够的现金而看着机会“无能为力”。

股市和人生一样，在很多人眼里：过去的，有那么多的机会，都被自己错过；未来的，有那么多的风险，让自己不敢赌一回。

中国的房市，教给很多人这样的教训：他们到死还是不明白，房市的机会，在中国已经不属于你了，已经成为历史。

金融危机之后的暴跌，也给很多人同样的教训：那样的机会，也已经成为历史，至少是在目前这一个波段。

但是，如果你从后悔中跳出来，放眼未来：实际上，在未来十年，你一样会遇到很多难得的机会，就看你是不是敏感和有智慧了。机会，任何时候都有，不同的只是：有时候比较难寻找，有时候到处都是。

下面的分析，给你一点借鉴。

Ten Reasons the Market Will (or Will Not) Crash

September 25, 2013 by Douglas A. McIntyre

Like clockwork, every time the American stock market makes new highs, some people insist it cannot go higher. A subset of those believe the market will crash. Others even believe it will reset like it did when the S&P 500 dropped from more than 1,500 in October 2007 to just above 600 in March 2009. A review of the most widely held beliefs about why a new crash is coming shows that some are bogus, while others almost certainly are likely to be right.

Here are the top ten:

1. The S&P 500 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is too high. Right now, it stands at almost 20. Market expert Mark Hulbert recently made the point that:

… according to data compiled by Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller. The average P/E for the S&P 500 since 1871 is 15.5 and the median P/E is 14.5.

Much analysis based on ancient history has the disadvantage of being old. Earnings have been measured differently over time, and accounting for earnings has evolved. The “S&P is too high” argument can be thrown out. Earnings definitions change too rapidly, as do the ways that public companies report them.

2. The economic recovery has slowed. Well, the recovery has been slow since the recession. If a weak gross domestic product (GDP), a poor housing market and historically high unemployment undermine the market, the S&P should not have moved from its recent low of just over 600 to its current level just shy of 1,700. This is another poorly reasoned argument, if only based on a short period of activity.

3. Forward earnings forecasts are weak. This is a strong argument. Many of America’s biggest companies anticipate poor fourth-quarter numbers, which could extend into 2014. Among the causes are a recession-plagued European economy, which is essential to the revenue of many multinationals. American consumers may have lost the bit of optimism they have had as the recovery barely bounces along the floor without a powerful recovery. Corporations dependent on consumer sales may have trouble posting improved numbers.

4. The federal government could be shut down for weeks or even months. This is another powerful position. Federal spending is a significant part of GDP. The United States employs too many people for a drop in their purchasing power to be shrugged off. If Washington is shuttered, many federal workers will drop off the payroll. So, the average citizen has reason to be anxious. If America cannot keep its own government operating, well, America cannot keep its own government operating.

5. There will be a new recession. That is not really likely, even if the government shuts down for a time. Unemployment, even if it is high by historic standards, continues to shrink toward less than 7%. Housing has recovered enough so the market in home sales is brisk. The number of underwater mortgages continues to disappear quickly, which leaves more and more people with positive home equity. That equity, in turn, in the past at least, has helped consumer spending.

6. Oil prices could spike. Another very unlikely option. Even if the unrest in the Middle East continues, it would take a regionwide catastrophe to stop the flow of crude from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Oil production in other countries with large reserves — Canada, Russia, Venezuela, the United States and China — would not be curtailed. Oil prices might rise temporarily, but they are unlikely to stay high for long.

7. The Chinese economy will collapse. Another unlikely scenario. Although it slowed briefly this year, Chinese GDP improvement should be well above 7% in 2013. Most expert forecasts call for the number to improve to 8% or better in 2014. The anxiety about high residential property values and regional bank loan levels may be well founded, but it is hard to make a case that the central government of the People’s Republic does not have adequate reserves to deal with these problems. China, the world’s second largest economy by GDP, will remain open for business, and business will be brisk.

8. Apple’s sales will continue to suffer, and along with that its earnings. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is supposed to be a proxy for the consumer’s enthusiasm. It is the largest company in the world, based on market cap. However, it is not an overall proxy for the economy or stock market. The “Apple is the economy” argument is all but stupid, and certainly no more than an invention of Apple fan boys.

9. Dark pools will move against the rally. These nearly invisible and massive oceans of unseen traders have watched the market soar and see the only real profit in shorting it. Dark pool trades are made away from the exchanges, which makes their activity hard to track. However, these pools do trade a huge number of the shares in U.S. companies. A conspiracy among them to take the market down has some chance of success, although it would cause mass prosecutions. However, conspiracy theories usually are wrong, and dark pool participants have goals that are different enough that it is improbable they will act in concert.

10. The market will collapse because it always does. This is the most powerful argument for a huge correction. No matter how powerful a rally, the market will not go up forever. That observation is obvious, but that does not prevent it from being true.

Economist Caution: Prepare For 'Massive Wealth Destruction'

Sunday, 15 Sep 2013 04:44 PM

Take immediate steps to protect your wealth . . . NOW!

That’s exactly what many well-respected economists, billionaires, and noted authors are telling you to do — experts such as Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Donald Trump, and Robert Wiedemer. According to them, we are on the verge of another recession, and this one will be far worse than what we experienced during the last financial crisis.

Marc Faber, the noted Swiss economist and investor, has voiced his concerns for the U.S. economy numerous times during recent media appearances, stating, “I think somewhere down the line we will have a massive wealth destruction. I would say that well-to-do people may lose up to 50 percent of their total wealth.”

When he was asked what sort of odds he put on a global recession happening, the economist famous for his ominous predictions quickly answered . . . “100 percent.”

Faber points out that this bleak outlook stems directly from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s policy decisions, and the continuous printing of new money, referred to as “quantitative easing” in the media.

Faber’s pessimism is matched by well-respected economist and investor Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital. Schiff remarks that the stock market collapse we experienced in 2008 “wasn’t the real crash. The real crash is coming.” 

Schiff didn’t stop there. Most alarming is his belief that daily life will get dramatically worse for U.S. citizens. 

“If we keep doing this policy of stimulus and growing government, it’s just going to get worse for the average American. Our standard of living is going to fall . . . People who are expecting Social Security can’t get all that money. People expecting government pensions can’t get all their money . . . We simply can’t afford to pay them.”

Equally critical of the current government and our nation’s economy is real estate mogul and entrepreneur Donald Trump, who is warning that the United States could soon become a large-scale Spain or Greece, teetering on the edge of financial ruin.

Trump doesn’t hesitate to point out America’s unhealthy dependence on China. “When you’re not rich, you have to go out and borrow money. We’re borrowing from the Chinese and others.”

It is this massive debt that worries Trump the most. 

“We are going up to $16 trillion [in debt] very soon, and it’s going to be a lot higher than that before he gets finished,” Trump says, referring to President Barack Obama. “When you have [debt] in the $21-$22 trillion [range], you are talking about a [credit] downgrade no matter how you cut it.”

In a recent appearance, Trump went to so far as to say the dollar is “going to hell.”

Where Trump, Faber, and Schiff see rising debt, a falling dollar, and a plunging stock market, investment adviser and author Robert Wiedemer sees much more widespread economic destruction.

In a recent interview to talk about his New York Times best-seller Aftershock, Wiedemer says, “The data is clear, 50 percent unemployment, a 90 percent stock market drop, and 100 percent annual inflation… starting in 2013.”

Before you dismiss Wiedemer’s claims as impossible or unrealistic, consider this: In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.

When the interview host questioned Wiedemer’s latest data, the author unapologetically displayed shocking charts backing up his allegations, and then ended his argument with, “You see, the medicine will become the poison.”

The interview has become a wake-up call for those unprepared (or unwilling) to acknowledge an ugly truth: The country’s financial “rescue” devised in Washington has failed miserably.

The blame lies squarely on those whose job it was to avoid the exact situation we find ourselves in, including Bernanke and former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, tasked with preventing financial meltdowns and keeping the nation’s economy strong through monetary and credit policies.

At one point, Wiedemer even calls out Bernanke, saying that his “money from heaven will be the path to hell.”

But it’s not just the grim predictions that are causing the sensation in Wiedemer’s video interview. Rather, it’s his comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

The interview offers realistic, step-by-step solutions that the average hard-working American can easily follow.

The video was initially screened for a relatively small, private audience. But the overwhelming amount of feedback from viewers who felt the interview should be widely publicized came with consequences, as various online networks repeatedly shut it down and affiliates refused to house the content.

Bernanke and Greenspan certainly would not support Wiedemer publicly, and it soon became apparent mainstream media would not either.

“People were sitting up and taking notice, and they begged us to make the interview public so they could easily share it,” said Newsmax Financial Publisher Aaron DeHoog. “But unfortunately, it kept getting pulled.”

“Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is the effect even if only half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true.

“That’s a scary thought for sure. But we want the average American to be prepared, and that is why we will continue to push this video to as many outlets as we can. We want the word to spread.”