世界末日到了吗？

很长时间，人们都在讨论世界末日到来的问题。

昨天，全世界股市大跌，似乎真正预示着，世界末日已经到来了。

那么，我们要问：如果世界末日真的到了，你又能够做什么呢？如果世界末日不会到来，在你自己吓唬自己之后，你所面临的，又会是什么样的结局呢？

最近一旦时间在忙乎着“在别人恐慌时贪婪点”，抓住机会，打算在未来的十年大干一场，所以，也没有什么时间可以用来写博客，和大家聊天。但是，虽然如此，我每天还是会尽可能花点时间，来关注一些相关的新闻。

有趣的是，我一直在用巴菲特先生的“价值投资”理念，指导自己在实业界的投资行为。而且，我的投资，又一直以美国的主流消费者为对象。十几年下来，收获之一，就是让自己，更为坚定了，当一个“价值投资”弟子的信念。自己在几年前写作并且出版的那本价值投资，也是为了更好的领会其中的奥秘所做的努力的一部分。

这里面，水太深，值得花一辈子的心力来领悟和揣摩。做人，做事，都能够从中获益匪浅。“价值投资”强调的，是重实实在在，少虚架子，少急功近利，少唯利是图。一边学习，一边领悟和实践，也是挺有意思的事情。

下面这篇文章，从投资者的角度，谈了一些颇值得大家好好思考的问题。

而我所要说的，除了作者的意图外，更重要的，是想站在一个哲学的高度，来谈点自己的感悟。

我发现，很多人活在一种自我恐慌的心态之下，在经济好的时候如此，在经济不好的时候，就更是如此了。很多人，不管自己个人和家庭的经济状况如何，心态似乎总是一样的：无论世界上出现什么事情，首先都是从最坏的情况去思考和准备，结果，人生活的除了“自我恐慌”之外，就基本上什么都没有。到最终，落下的，恐怕就是离开人世之时的一声长叹。到了那时候，再漂亮的后悔，恐怕也没有什么价值。

我一直觉得，人活在这个世界上，最重要的意义，恐怕就是活出一点色彩来。就像是做菜，你不一定非得加很多人造的作料（太夸张，似乎也不是什么好事），但是，你最起码也得在菜里面加点油和盐，不然的话，一、两日对付可能还行，日久天长的，我看，活着可能还是“生不如死”。

很多人说，成功者都是因为运气好。二十来年在美国的折腾和所见所闻，倒是让我觉得，成功对于个人而言，运气实际上没有价值。因为，很多运气，在特定的时候和特定的环境下，实际上是对几乎每个人都公开开放的。既然是公开开放，就没有个人特殊性的价值了。

当然，你可能会说：不同的是，有些人“已经”准备好了。对此，我也怀疑：我不觉得有准备好这一说！战机，很多时候，就是在大家都没有准备好的情况下出现的！不同的是，有些人会有意识的去改变自己，以迎合机会的需要！

当然，你可能还会有很多的理由，试图来说服自己，你放弃机会，并不是你自己的过错。如果你有这样的习惯，我看，你除非改变，否则，也就别埋怨很多人害怕你就像害怕瘟疫了。我已经不止一次，劝人们，离这样的人最好是越远越好！那样的人生活法，对于我，太消极，成事不足败事有余!

在我看来，成功者，在于在运气好的时候，敢于面对运气的挑战和考验。从这点看， 运气也是一个很难伺候的家伙！就像匹野马，更像一位野气十足的漂亮女人！赢得对方的芳心，不使用非常规手段，恐怕是很难有结果的。

从这点看，干大事的，应该都是一些敢于异想天开的家伙。如果你老是基于常规的逻辑，而又想干出大事情来，那就无异于“异想天开”了。这两个一样的词，在这里我用在一起，可能比较容易让人迷糊！

有人说，如果你老是基于一样的逻辑和方式行事，而又老是无法达到自己的目的，那么，你就应该先想办法改变你思考的逻辑。有时候，你恐怕还得反着来！

做到这点很难，但是，做不到这点，你就“原来怎么活，还是继续怎么活吧”。对了，如果你不想继续按照以往的惯性活下去，那么，你恐怕还得对这样的老朋友躲远点才行。不然的话，他们会继续让你按照过去的活法继续享受“安逸”！

很多人天性就是喜欢抱怨和发牢骚。你和这样的人呆在一块，本身就是一种折磨！度日如年，在那时候，你就会有很切身的体会！你别说，这样的人还真的不少，并且很多时候，他们还很自以为是，一副看穿世间一切的“豪情壮志”！

在今天这样的时刻，我觉得就是命运之神最活跃，最慷慨的时候。不管你是投资什么东西，或者想做点什么，现在就是机会。当然，如果你想按部就班的过日子，现在很可能也是你最辛苦的时刻：作为一个满足于给人打工，打完了，拿到钱，还时不时会转身骂人的家伙，你这时候能够获得的工作机会也会比较少，给予你吃“闲饭”的机会也就少了不少。

最近，自己在很活跃的和各地的大地主们协商租场地，扩张商业事宜。在这种忙乎之中，我发现了一个很有趣的现象：那些区位比较好的地段，地主们似乎还是没有大方的给予慷慨租约条件的心情。每一位地主们还是那么“霸道”，依然以一副“姜太公钓鱼，愿者上钩”的心态，一副“卖方市场”黑老大的“牛劲”。

在这种心态充斥之下，你要告诉我，美国经济已经完蛋，我似乎是很难理性地认可的。

强者愈强，弱者愈若，似乎才是目前经济形势的最佳描述。

在商业地段好的地方，商业经营活动依然活跃。在比较弱的地方，则江河日下。很多在过去几年还在苦苦挣扎的商业区，现在已经成为死城！

更有甚者，很多地方已经出现大面积的“残杀”活动——枪杀事件好像越来越多，更多的人，为了那为数不多的金钱，敢于走险了。

这，到底是世界末日来临的迹象，还是底部快到，曙光很快就初露的预兆？

人活着，仁者见仁，智者见智。不同的人，基于自己不同的理解，做出不同的决策，下了不同的人生赌注。很多时候，你选择自以为最保险的，很可能就是风险最大的。只是，你失去的，是你一辈子都难以看出的，那很可能就是人生难得的千载难逢的改变机会。

和一些朋友沟通，发现共同语言越来越少。我们思考的角度和对待人生的心态，差异也越来越大。与此同时，又从长期在商业第一线“折腾”的美国那种种色色不同的企业家那里，获得不同的感悟。

说到底，我们这些生活在北美的华裔精英们，思维和生活的空间，还是太狭小。而且，更可怕的是，很多人还已经非常适应这样狭小空间带给自己的“舒适感”。

做事情，多想点“光明”的前景，多想点怎么样实现，而不是还没有开始，就自我吓唬。开始时，多点粗线条，少点详细的行动方案。多点战略上藐视敌人，而不是，战端未开，自己先被吓死了！

最近和一位已经七十有余的女性牙医聊天。她说，1961年时，在大学，她所在的那个班上，她是唯一的女性，而且还是一位非常漂亮的女性。这后者，我从她今天的面容都能够很明显的看出来。

那时候，没有一个人觉得，女性是可以，而且能够成为一个称职牙医的。可她却不信这个邪！她几十年的人生，让无数的人大跌眼镜。

她说，她这一生活下来，最大的特点就是：从开始就有很明确的人生目标，并且，她还一直基于这样的目标，每一步都有很切实可行的计划。其后，就是基于这样的计划，按部就班的采取行动。当然，实时更新也是必要的。

离别时，我对她说：在活法这一点，我们共享一样的人生哲理！虽然你在大学和男人们斗气的时候，我还没有出生！

她以吃惊的眼光看着我，似乎我是一个异物！言下之意，享有这种人生活法的人，依然比较少见。至少，是在她所生活的圈子里！

附录：Tune out the fear and panic 

By James Altucher 
Sep 23, 2011 08:45:38 (ET)

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The world is ending. You heard me. Europe is going to default. The U.S. will go into a depression, the dollar will shrink to nothing, Congress and Barack Obama will continue to fight in the Coliseum while us citizens shout and roar from the stands, and stocks will go down forever. To zero maybe.

All of that rioting that is in Libya will spread like a "contagion" to here. And in 13 billion years, the perimeter of the sun will be so wide it will suck us in, a cold dark Earth, a shadow of what it once was.

Do I worry? Me? Mr. "Dow 20,000?" Of course I do. I get worried that people will believe the lies listed above that are spread every day. The newspapers have to report the worries. That's a reasonable function; awareness is important. But then you have major responsibilities that most people forget: Analysis and Action. You need to look at the data and decide what is real and what is now. Then take action to make money.

Let's look at some basic facts:

A) The top eight banks in the United States have almost $1 trillion in capital and only $54 billion in exposure to the weakest Euro zone nations. Let them all default. Doesn't bother us.

B) In 1981-2, almost all of South America defaulted. The top eight banks then had 263% of their capital exposed to South America, based on accounting rules in place then. Guess what? We had a 20-year boom after that.

C) Is Europe a Lehman? One big difference (other than the obvious one I just mentioned: The banks in 2008 were subject to the brand new mark-to-market rule. Now they don't have to mark to market. They can make an assumption ("Europe will pay back eventually") and not have to mark things down as quickly. Guess when the mark to market rule was eliminated? March 2009 -- the bottom of the market.

D) We've had eight straight quarters of GDP growth. Well, what if next quarter there is no growth? Impossible. Just the return of Japan to some degree of normalcy will guarantee growth.

E) The government is going to cut a lot of jobs. Won't that reduce GDP? Definitely not. Look at 1945. The government eliminated 10 million (!) jobs when the soldiers returned. I don't recall the Great Depression of 1945, do you?

F) Housing starts are down while existing home sales are up 18% year over year. You know what that means? Supply is going down while demand is going up. I look forward to housing prices going up over the next year considerably. Particularly with rents up 30% on the past three years in some parts of the country, like New York City.

G) Look at this. Traffic to fedex.com is my favorite leading indicator. It dipped a little at the market bottom and when Japan reduced manufacturing output by 15%. Now it's coming back. We'll see the result of that in this and next quarter's GDP results. You can run the same chart on ups.com.

That, in a tiny nutshell that I can expand if you want, is the macro view. Let's look at the micro view:

A) No matter what happens in Greece, or even in the United States, (AAPL, Trade ) with 12x earnings and $80 billion in cash will release another iPhone, another iPad, another Mac, and then repeat all through next year. They are continuing to change computing and regardless of the state of the economy, the lines will be around the corner when they release the next iPad. Despite all of our worries, consumer spending is up 2% year over year. So AAPL is a buy. And I keep my $1,500 price target on it.

B) Exxon Mobil (XOM, Trade ) is just beginning a wonderful new phase for the United States and the world. You've heard of peak oil theory -- the idea that the easy oil has all been drilled and we will run out. It's a true theory. BUT, the definition of "easy" is changing because of cheaper and cheaper advances in the technology of fracking. XOM bought XTO, the leader in fracking, which can drill 3,000 feet down through solid rock, drill sideways, break up previously hard rocks, and get the oil up. Cheaper than ever. And it will only get cheaper. The U.S. is the new Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years. And XOM is dirt cheap.

C) Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Trade ). Forget that WMT has been the best run company for 40 years straight. WMT is about to do for healthcare what AAPL is doing for computing. Imagine every WMT with a cheap healthcare clinic. They won't do surgery on you there. But they will treat your colds, your flus, prescribe medicines, get your glasses, etc. Forget ObamaCare. The new cheap healthcare is WalmartCare, where it always should've been -- in the private sector.

D) Amazon.com (AMZN, Trade ). I went to a Borders sale the other day; 90% off because of the going out of business sale. Barnes & Noble (BKS, Trade ) is next. I already read almost all of my books on a Kindle. And the Kindle tablet, if it has good browsing and videos, will be a viable competitor for AAPL.

E) Google (GOOG, Trade ). I've argued this one before. It's just the best company in the world.

All of the above five stocks are priced at very low multiples over earnings. Even if the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU ) (horrors) gets cut in half, the $80 billion in cash that AAPL has provides a great cushion, for instance. I always look at risk versus reward.

Two more macro items:

Zynga and Facebook are going to herald in the return of the IPO. And when they have IPOs they will have currency to acquire other companies, which will fuel VC investments, which will create jobs, etc.

You don't need full employment for the stock market to go up. They are uncorrelated (as exemplified by consumer spending being at an all time high)

Awareness. Analysis. Action.

Don't even listen to me. Do your own research. You won't be as scared as the market suggests. Let the market be afraid while you be smart.