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When June met August 2019-04-19 07:57:08

When June met August 

When the baby was born, her parents named her June. They wish her young forever.

June would grow up, meeting July and August in due time.

But on the third day of June, baby June cried badly. This annoyed August. There was a rumour about violent encounter between June and August.

We have never seen June since.

Note

June: young 

August: old and powerful 



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The power 2019-04-17 05:44:00

The power 


When the power brainwash us

We thank them for washing our brains clean 


When the power break our backbone 

We thank them for making us more flexible 


When the power silence the dissent

We thank them for reaching the consensus 


When the power impose political correctness 

We thank them for the guidance 


When the power turn the world into hell

We thank them for marching to heaven 








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Truth in science and religion 2019-04-16 14:02:14

Truth in science and religion 


Truth, naked truth

Is banned in science 


Only veiled behind religion 

Does truth prevail 





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Happy in the backyard 2019-04-12 07:21:15

Happy in the backyard 

In our youth 
Restlessness drives us
From place to place
Engaging one fight after another 

In our old age 
Resting in the backyard 
Content to be in my place 
Reading William Blake

“To see a World in a Grain of Sand
And a Heaven in a Wild Flower, 
Hold Infinity in the palm of your hand 
And Eternity in an hour.”
















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Iron and blood 2019-04-05 06:58:22

Not through speeches and majority decisions will the great questions of the day be decided— but by iron and blood. (Otto von Bismarck)

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How pension system destroys our society 2019-03-28 22:36:29

How pension system destroys our society 


The deduction of CPP occurs at our young age, when we need resources most to support our fledgling families. Several years after CPP deductions implemented, Canada’s fertility rate dropped below replacement rate. CPP, a nation wide scheme affecting every working individual, systematically reduces our ability to raise children.


CPP and other deductions are heavy burdens to the young working people. Why were they implemented? Why do they persist so long? They were implemented because the return for early participants were very attractive. They only pay 3.6% of their pensionable income, instead of today’s 10%. Like any other Ponzi scheme, or pay as you go scheme, early participants get great deals.


At any time, most people over 40 already contribute heavily into CPP. They are better off if the CPP program continues and expands. So there is little public outcry. CPP is not the only program that ushers the long term decline and destruction of our society. However, it is a good example to illustrate how such programs started and why they are difficult (impossible?) to stop.






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野心 2019-03-25 18:52:04

野心

野心,是一颗荒野的心
野心,是一颗自然的心
野心,是一颗宁静的心

野心,是一颗狂野的心
野心,是一颗奔放的心
野心,是一颗火热的心

野心,是一颗旷野的心
野心,是一颗流浪的心
野心,是一颗自由的心














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Gene 2019-03-15 06:27:19

Gene


A gene 

Is to generate 

New generation 


A generation 

Is to generate

New gene





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Galbraith on new ideas 2019-03-10 19:13:54

The affluent society


John Galbraith


To proclaim the need for new ideas has served, in some measure, as a substitute for them. 

 

At the highest levels of social science scholarship some novelty of formulation or statement is not resisted. On the contrary, considerable store is set by the device of putting an old truth in a new form, and minor heresies are much cherished. And the very vigor of minor debate makes it possible to exclude as irrelevant, and without seeming to be unscientific or parochial, any challenge to the framework itself. Moreover, with time and aided by the debate, the accepted ideas become increasingly elaborate. They have a large literature, even a mystique. The defenders are able to say that the challengers of the conventional wisdom have not mastered their intricacies. Indeed these ideas can be appreciated only by a stable, orthodox, and patient man --- in brief, by someone who closely resembles the man of conventional wisdom. The conventional wisdom having been made more or less identical with sound scholarship, its position is virtually impregnable. The skeptic is disqualified by his very tendency to go brashly from the old to the new. Were he a sound scholar he would remain with the conventional wisdom.

 

At the same time in the higher levels of the conventional wisdom originality remains highly acceptable in the abstract. Here again the conventional wisdom often makes vigorous advocacy of originality a substitute for originality itself. P. 11, Chapter 2, Section II





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Shall we buy insurance? 2019-03-08 14:03:27

Shall we buy insurance?

When we buy air tickets, we are asked to buy insurance on the tickets as well. Shall we buy insurance?

Suppose an air ticket costs 300 dollars. The insurance on the ticket provides one chance to exchange for a ticket in case you need to change the traveling time. This happens about one out of ten times. The cost of the insurance is 50 dollars.

On average, it costs us 500 dollars to get a 300 dollar coverage. That is how insurance companies make money. The net loss for a customer is 200 dollar. If so, why some people still buy insurance?

If we are well off, it is no big deal to fork out 300 dollar for a new ticket. However, if your bank account has very little left, it might be tough to dip into your savings. That is when insurance can help. The poorer we get, the more insurance we will crave.


In the following, we will give a more quantitative analysis. In the year of 1738, Daniel Bernoulli published a paper on why one would buy insurance. In that paper, he introduce the concept of utility function. His utility function is a logarithm function. We will apply his method to our problem.


Suppose the initial wealth of a person is w. For a person who buys insurance, his final wealth is always w – 50, where 50 is the cost of insurance. For a person who does not buy insurance, his final wealth is w 90% of the time, when he doesn’t change his travelling schedule, and w – 300 10% of the time,  when he changes his travelling schedule and buy an extra ticket.


His utility when he buys insurance is ln (w – 50). His utility when he doesn’t buy insurance is 0.9*ln (w) + 0.1*ln(w – 300). When the initial wealth is 310 or 1000, the utility values can be calculated and listed in the following table



ticket cost

300

300

probability of change

0.1

0.1

price of insurance

50

50

initial wealth

310

1000

log utility without   insurance

5.39

6.87

log utility with   insurance

5.56

6.86

difference

0.17

-0.01



For a person with initial wealth of 310, his utility is improved with the purchasing of the insurance. For a person with initial wealth of 1000, his utility is reduced with the purchasing of the insurance.


In general, over long term, the more insurance we buy, the poorer we become.

This happens not only to personal insurance, but also to social insurance. If we are poor, we are more likely to need social insurance. However, more social insurance comes with more taxes. We might get 300 dollar benefit for every 500 dollar tax. There are a lot of costs associated with any program. Over long term, the more social insurance we have, the poorer we will become.

This is not to suggest we shouldn’t buy any insurance, or our society shouldn’t provide any social insurance. We fall on hardship from time to time. Insurance can be invaluable in genuine difficult times. However, it is a sure way to poor house if we insure each and every trifle. When we spend less to buy insurance, we can save more to build up our own financial cushion.

Genuine insurance in our life is our health, physical and mental health. If we are healthy, we are less likely to fall into hardship. When we do, we are more likely to rebound from it.

 



























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