The differences between US and Canadian election systems and their impacts

Both current governments in Canada and US came into power with less than half popular votes. The Canadian government came into power by winning urban votes while US government came into power by winning rural votes. We want to understand why these patterns emerge and what are their  impacts on our societies.

But first, we will use a simple example, simplified from the US and Canadian election systems, to understand the US and Canadian election systems.

Suppose a country has five provinces, one large province and four small provinces. The population of the large province is 5.5 million. The population of the rest four provinces is 1.5 million each. For every million people, there is one seat for parliament or one ticket for presidential election. In an election system similar to Canada, there will be five seat for the first province and one seat each for the other four provinces. In an election system similar to US, each province will have one additional seat, regardless of the size of an province. In this US like system, the first province will have six seats. The other four provinces will have two seats each. The US like system gives more power to each individual province, or state.

Assume there are two parties in the election. For convenience, let us call them Democratic Party and Republican Party. Suppose in an election, Democratic Party gets majority in the large province, with 5.5 million people. Republican Party gets majority in other four small provinces.

In the Canadian type system, Democratic Party will get five seats from the large province. Republican Party will get one seat from each of the other four provinces. Together, Republican Party will get four seats. So Democratic Party gets to form the government.

In the US type system, Democratic Party will get six seats from the large province. Republican Party will get two seats from each of the other four provinces. Together, Republican Party will get eight seats. So Republican Party gets to form the government.

We can further discuss how a minority vote can get majority seats in two election systems. In the Canadian type system, suppose 60% of voter support Democratic Party in the large province and 40%  votes go to Republican Party. In the other four small provinces, 60% of votes go to Republican Party and 40%  votes go to Democratic Party. Since the combined population of the four other provinces, at six million, is higher than the population of the first province, at 5.5 million. The Republican Party gets the majority votes but loses the election. This is the case in the 2019 Canadian election. The Conservative Party gets more popular votes but lost the election. Liberal Party gets less over all votes, but get more votes in large provinces. It ends up with more parliamentary seats and gets to form the government.

In the US type system, suppose 70% of voter support Democratic Party is the large province and 30%  votes go to Republican Party. In the other four small provinces, 60% of votes go to Republican Party and 40%  votes go to Democratic Party. The total votes for the Democratic Party is 5.5*0.7+6*0.4= 6.25 million, the rest of the population, at 5.25 million, voted for the Republican Party. The Democratic Party wins the popular vote but loses the election. This is the case in US election in 2016. Democratic Party wins large states like California and wins popular votes. But it loses the presidential election.

Right now, both US and Canada are in a peculiar situation where the party with less popular votes is in power.

Provinces or states have a large population often because large cities are there. Canadian type political systems represent more the interest of urban people, whose population is more concentrated. Their political power is also more centralized. Because political power is more concentrated in urban areas, people have stronger tendency to move to urban areas to take advantage from the political power. This makes the population more concentrated in urban areas.

US type political systems represent more the interest of rural people, whose population is less concentrated. Their political power is also less centralized.

For a long time, the whole world has become more urbanized. There are many consequences of urbanization. One is the reduction of fertility rate. In many of the most urbanized countries, fertility rates have dropped below replacement.

A US type system, whose political power is less centralized, perhaps slows down the process of urbanization. This is one reason why US has relatively high fertility rate among wealthy countries, which are highly urbanized.

A more centralized political system reduces fertility rate. This is one reason why East Asian countries, whose political powers are highly centralized, have very low fertility rates.