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		人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗？	2016-11-30 17:54:25

人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗？

不断有研究人员声称，随着医疗科学的进展，将来人类的平均寿命可以达到100岁，120岁，甚至两百岁。这可不可能？

生态学中有一条规律，寿命越长的动物，往往出生率越低，这可以用资源的分配来理解，花在自己身上的资源越多，寿命就越长，同时花在下一代身上的资源越少，出生率越低。如果平均出生率低于二，这个社群一定会消亡的。

我们来看一下平均寿命最高的20个国家，除了以色列，其他国家的出生率都低于二，也就是说，这些高平均寿命的社会是逐渐衰亡的社会。目前最高平均寿命的国家，其平均寿命低于85岁，由此推断，将来整个人类的平均寿命，不管医疗科学如何进步，上限不会高于85岁。

更详细的分析，可参考

Chen, J, and James Galbraith A Common Framework for Evolutionary and Institutional Economics , (2012), , Journal of Economic Issues, June, 2012, Vol. 46 Issue 2, p419-428,

Chen, J, The Unity of Science and Economics: A New Foundation of Economic Theory, (2016), Springer

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【语言（八）】

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· Language, languish, anguish

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· 不通则痛，通则不痛

【科学（六）】

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· On amateur and academic resear

【经济（四）】

· How much we need to save for r

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· Total value of gold and some

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· A Candle in the Wind

· 缺憾之美

· River of no return

· Raw and refined: Two versions

【经济（三）】

· Own something small wholly or

· Money as a performance enhance

· How much we pay for retirement

· How to reduce anxiety over fi

· How to trim a tree or an econo

· A critique of economic theory

· The most depressing (exciting)

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· 数学：应用和乐趣 (修订版)

【诗词（六）】

· Spring up and fall down

· Within and Without

· Heroine and Heroin

【诗词（五）】

· Pet and Pest

· 忘，妄，望

· Envelope and develop

【科学（五）】

· Why highly educated women and

· On the concept of perfectness

· Reflection from a riddle

· On averaging denominators

· Integrating mathematical finan

· 苦难是最好的学校

· Read The need for a new public

· The earth is a gigantic batter

【语言（七）】

· 想象和相象

· 汉语和英语读音的相似

· 双字词的来源

· 标致和婊子

· Credible and Incredible

· 英语和汉语类似的构词法

· Excite and Incite

· Forget and For Get

· Lax and relax

【杂谈（三）】

· 经纬和泾渭

· Heretics are true believers

· Faith or good deeds

· 养儿还是育女？

· Should adult children stay wit

· 女儿制作的录像

· 儿子唱的rap

· 女儿带着女儿来看我们，写的一段

【语言（六）】

· 腿脚和退却

· Copulate, copy, populate

· Emergence and emergency

· I am, I love

· Tart and top, start and stop

· 同样的世界，不同的视角

【诗词（四）】

· On the wisdom of wisdom teeth

· Stalin Rap to Hitler and Mao

· Winter night in the north

【诗词（三）】

· When you try

· Winter in the deep north

· 你家的月亮

· Good bye, my friends

· 当生命之火慢慢熄灭

【语言（五）】

· 兴趣，利益和利息

· Over 和 Overture

· Inspire and Expire

· 哥哥的歌

· Decadence and decay

· 阀：大人物是干什么的？

· 奴隶的心

· 为什么我们喜欢压韵？

【语言（四）】

· Screw and screwed

· Sun and moon

· Norm, normal and Normans

· Bella and bellum

· Two meanings of like

· What is a theory?

· What is man?

【经济（二）】

· Reading James Galbraith’s The

· 为他人作嫁衣裳：贸易强国的共同

· 什么是内需不足？

· 关于持续的贸易不平衡

· A long tradition to connect th

· On persistent trade imbalance

· On green economy

· What are rights: Some reflecti

· On Risk Management

· 怎样计算股票的融资成本和预期回

【杂谈（二）】

· There is more brainwashing in

· 女儿初为人母

· Weather and climate

· 老三的一篇短文

· When defects become an advanta

· Service of necessities and ser

· 女儿的帖子

· 荷花和塘泥

【科学（四）】

· Predictions in social sciences

· 数学的现状和未来

· Social structures: A perspecti

· 温度和情绪（temperature and t

· Learning, memory and decision

· The Least Action Principle: It

· When an electron falls to a pr

· 为什么鱼比肉更容易煮熟？

· 一篇关于The Unity of Science a

【诗词（二）】

· I’d rather

· 池塘里的污泥

· Over and under

· Bond and bondage

· 早点睡觉

· 在我慢慢褪色的世界里

· 狮的低吟，诗的回声

【语言（三）】

· 相似的单词，不同的意思

· 小米和 millet

· 什么是不够

· Easter: 词的来源

· 论所谓的正能量 (On being posit

· Terr 是土地

· Radical 的意思是什么？

· 努力的奴隶

· 风筝：孩子离家

· 落日：致老去的人们

· 杜达尔和玛丽亚

· Driving crazy

· 燃烧和发烧

· 满月的冬夜

· 献给空巢的父母

· Burning and burn out

【健康（三）】

· Mentally stimulating

· On obsessive compulsive disord

· 吃盐和生育

· Ginger and gingerly

· Principle Based Medicine

· Why we need pain?

· 关于自闭症

· 健康的定义

· 针灸的原理

· 情感的守恒定律

【科学（三）】

· 数学及其在社会科学中的应用

· 为什么光线弱的地方会觉得浪漫？

· 美是平均，美是不变的性质

· 颜色和温度

· 简洁就是美

· 栖息之地：健康的树和濒死的树

· 落红不是无情物，化作春泥更护花

· 为什么肥沃的土地上很难找到先锋

· 不平等，效率和系统维护成本

· 生物学的统一理论

【语言（二）】

· 我，倭，和，we

· 鹪鹩，娇娆，wren, 人，文

· 牡丹，Botan, Botany

· 人多则移

· 英语中的几个象形词

· 趣味英语:一个不引人注意的前缀

【科学(二）】

· 基因突变不是完全偶然的

· 生物学和生态学的结合

· Energy consumption and cost

· 人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗？

· 蝴蝶效应并不存在（兼论偏微分

· 科学与经济学的统一

· 意识: 一个经济学和物理学的理论

· 诺奖得主年龄的变迁

· 学科细分: 社会停滞和衰退的表征

【健康(二）】

· On cortisol and other drugs

· 为什么负氧离子有益健康

· 吃冰和减肥

· 实用生理学

· 为什么晒太阳有好处?

· 为什么练功经常用圆型姿式？

· 脉搏中包含多少信息？

· 外科手术不伤身体吗？

· 头痛医脚

· 怎样才能改善内脏的功能

【人口(二）】

· 政府的法律和自然的法律

· 出生率，平均寿命，生活水平和社

· Holmes stories: The number of

· 个体年龄和社会年龄

· 多子多福

· 人口塌陷: 真正的悲剧

· 华人的高智商和低生育率

· 走出非洲

· 生命就是竞争

· 什么是文化

· 聪明的代价：亚当和夏娃的故事

· 为什么大道至简

· 人口问题文章的一个汇总

· 人口警报?

· 人口红利和人口投资

· 多生孩子: 靠政策,还是靠自己?

· 华而不实和春华秋实

· 劝君莫惜金缕衣，劝君惜取少年时

· 政府越大,出生率越低

· 关于全民基本收入

· 六四还是六三？

· Iron and blood

· 华人参政不够踊跃吗？

· 谁得益于大政府？兼论美国大选

· 印一百元假钞是犯罪，印一万亿真

· 量化宽松和猪肉注水

· 百年大势和英国脱欧

· 龙图腾的含义

· 个体的肥胖和社会的肥胖

· 在什么年纪，做什么事情

· 早晨出行和下午出行

· 男学生在哪里？

· 贱和基本

· 少数的重要性

· 效用函数是什么样子的？

· 经济学理论不应该建立在拓扑学基

· 谁是二十世纪最伟大的经济学家？

· 谁是十九世纪最伟大的经济学家？

· 非平衡态经济学理论简介

· 凯恩斯主义适用的环境

· 从日本的负利率谈起

· 关于利率

· 生产过程各要素之间的关系

· 平衡态和非平衡态经济学

【加拿大】

· 一个登山爱好者的历险（附视频

· 海达圭游记

· 红河谷歌词的变迁

· 洄游的三文鱼

· 碧西(BC)的风景和阿省的风景

· 中加教育比较

· 决定和 decide

· 仇的两种读法

· 小儿子教我读书

· 汉语单词的起源

· 舒服和束缚

· 姓张的人为什么这么多？

· 纽，妞，丑，new, 牛

· 姜太公的故事

· 语言的产生和演变

· 科学研究：缺的是钱吗？

· 数学：应用和乐趣

· 汉字和科学研究

· 社会生物学与社会

· 有趣的化学

· 蒲公英和科学研究

· 当代没有科学大师吗?

· 数学,美和现实

· 现实世界：理解数学的金钥匙

· 按摩脚底为什么这么重要？

· 中医的疗效（续）

· 从蛋白质的不同分解途径看痛风的

· 中医的疗效

· 从哮喘的治疗谈预防

· 实用生理学

· 什么是酸性食物？

· 肥胖和内脏功能

· 呼吸的方法

· 关于抑郁

【科学与经济】

· 阅读The Unity of Science and E

· 信息和熵的等价性

· 知觉的简单和数学的简单

· 一流的研究: 真那么难吗?

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