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Evidence in Scientific Research 2021-10-27 08:20:12

Evidence in Scientific Research

Some years ago, I was taking a physiology course. After one class, I talked to my teacher. I heard that cranberry juice was helpful easing gallbladder stone problems. I drank some. It seemed working. I asked him if there is any formal research about it. He said that he was not aware of any such research. In general, there is little incentive to work on something in the public domain, something that is not patentable, something that can’t be turned into a product. Not only you can’t make money off your research, but also you will reduce the value of other drugs by providing cheap alternative remedies. This will harm and therefore offend your colleagues.

Even cranberry juice is truly helpful in easing some health problems, you can’t find scientific evidence for few scientific researchers are interested in finding evidence.

Take ivermectin for example. Many people in places where drug regulations are not very rigid have used ivermectin to treat novel coronavirus diseases. From the reports, the results are very positive. However, ivermectin, an old drug and a successful drug for some other diseases, is very cheap. There is little enthusiasm in the highly paid research community to conduct rigorous research on the effects of ivermectin on novo coronavirus diseases. To do this could serious depreciate the value of vaccines. To this day, there is little attempt to seek rigorous evidence about the effectiveness of ivermectin. Hence there’s little “scientific” evidence about the effectiveness of ivermectin although there are a lot of evidence about the effectiveness of ivermectin.

Evidence in scientific research is also affected by the framing of concepts. I once took a pathophysiology course. At the beginning of the semester, my teacher dutifully copied the definition of health from the government. A student raised a question. Why the definition of health doesn’t include the health of reproduction? It is such a fundamental issue. My teacher paused. Then he told a story.

When he was an undergraduate student, he had a good friend. Her greatest wish was to have a big family, with a lot of kids. Today, she is a successful physician. But she is still a single, with no kid. If we include reproductive health into the definition of health, she would be very sad.

Many highly educated people, especially highly educated women, have few children. The fertility question is carefully avoided in learned societies. The relation between drugs and fertility is rarely examined by researchers. As a result, the impact on fertility of many drugs remain rumors.

Researchers are eager to provide evidence when evidence will enhance their own careers and benefit their profession. Their colleagues will salute their valuable contributions and reward them with money and status. Researchers are reluctant to provide evidence when evidence will damage their own careers and harm their profession. Otherwise, their colleagues will punish their treason and banish them from their circle.

On fundamental issues, scientific evidence is overwhelmingly one-sided. Scientific evidence overwhelmingly support the dominant parties. However, this does mean we can not find truth or near truth. The expensive double blind experiment is a recent practice. But living systems have been seeking truth for billions of years. They try to find out what are edible and what are harmful. They try to find out who are friendly and who are dangerous. The elite institutions don’t have the monopoly on truth.

One effective way to seek truth is economic reasoning. Take immune systems for example. If every adaptive system has only benefit and no cost, the antibodies will always be there, they will always be replenished, they will never disappear. The very fact that some antibodies will decline and disappear suggests that there is a cost for adaptive immune systems. The very fact that different adaptive immune system will depreciate at different pace suggests that the cost and benefit of different adaptive immune system is different. However, there is every incentive for researchers to highlight the benefit of their research products and little incentive for researchers to highlight the cost of their research products. We just have to figure them out ourselves.   

Information has always been costly and will always be costly. We can only get information by trial and error. We can only filter information through rumors. There is no way around it. To depend on the feeding of the authority is a sure way to be enslaved by the authority.




Theresa Long's testimony 

https://youtu.be/Zq5UbZmvtLE

WHistleblower

https://youtu.be/q0bmVsiGhQQ

The whistleblower article from BMJ

https://www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2635


A detailed data analysis on vaccine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6umArFc-fdc

The Big Secret: A Documentary about money and medicine

https://youtu.be/_QGPxlx0oOY



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作者:jingchen 回复 白草 留言时间:2021-11-06 13:31:49

多谢美言。我们可以更多地依靠常识,推理,和观察。我们可以等待。我们可以不被所谓的紧急情况胁迫。

回复 | 1
作者:白草 留言时间:2021-11-05 12:48:12

这真是难得一见的好文章。希望用中文可以在中文网站上传播得更广。科学界的偏见和利益偏好是非常明显的,但问题是他们掌握的知识是公众无法抗衡的。在疫苗问题上也是如此。当WHO或者FDA说一个定论时,没有任何个人或者组织能有相同体量的证据或者实验来证伪。一个或者少量的药物有效案例无法达到同样的权威效果。而且一旦全民接种疫苗,反过来说又无法提供对照组实验的结果了。所以权威总是赢家。

回复 | 1
作者:jingchen 回复 高鹏 留言时间:2021-11-02 12:39:58

你喜欢讲证据,又老说没证据。其实证据很多的。


关于疫苗,用打疫苗后一个月的数据,和打疫苗一年后的数据,结果是不一样的。专家和政府,很自然地采用一个月的数据。然后又要求打加强针,不断地打加强针,总而言之,长期的数据,或者证据很难得到。如果所有人都被迫注射疫苗,对照组根本就不存在了。这样,证据真的没有了。


关于政府,这个政府权力太大了。有钱,有地位的人,多多少少得到政府直接或间接的好处。当然,所有的人,都会摆出一副中立的面孔。既使批评政府,也只会批评政府在某方面做得不够,也就是说,要求政府给他们更多好处。


但是,间接的证据,却很容易找到。我们用一下守恒定律。疫情期间,经济不景气,但股票却高升。应用守恒定律,我们就可以把余下的项填出来。关键是你愿不愿意去找这样的证据。


回复 | 1
作者:高鹏 留言时间:2021-10-31 19:55:37

哈哈,今天才细看,好文章,先点个赞。


你举的例子很有趣。cranberry juice 可能会缓解胆囊结石问题,实际上,很多人相信 cranberry juice 还有其它益处。这是一个假设,我并不排除这种假设。现在学术界最大的问题之一就是很少报道阴性结果。换句话说有关 cranberry juice 对健康的好处到底是没人研究,还是根本就没有效果,我们根本就不知道。


还有那个 ivermectin,有人说可以降低Covid-19的死亡率。同样,我也不排除这种假设。证据和假设毕竟是两回事。如果有证据证明ivermectin 有效,为什么不可以用。我记得很早我查阅了FDA(CDC?记不太请了)网站,网站上说,要慎用 ivermectin. 这并没有什么错。本来是个学术问题被政治化了,反疫苗人士就是看FDA不顺眼。


我同意你的说法,科学研究是有倾向性的。读一下任何一篇论文中的导论,每个作者都认为自己的领域重要。而应用研究更是为经济效益和社会效益支配。比方说,在中国,研究开发肿瘤药物的的要比研究麻醉药物的支持力度要大得多。同样,科学家在选取证据上也是受主观影响的。比方说,针刺镇痛有很多研究。南韩,新加坡,台湾,中国大陆和日本的研究结果阳性居多,而其它地区的科学家则发现没什么效果。问题是,科学允许争论,不同国家,不同背景,经过一段时间,肯定会有一个清晰的结果。


你和施化在评论中的东西,我是不同意的。比方说,疫情没能控制,与政府,媒体,金融和大公司的腐败有关。有证据吗?美国腐败了,以色列也腐败了吗?新加坡政府应该很廉洁吧,也腐败了?西方国家基本策略是一至的:在没有其它更有效的措施的情况下,依靠疫苗,为什么,因为数据表明,疫苗有效。并且,这些国家并没有想用疫苗来阻止疫情,而是控制在一定水平。


政府腐败,这种可能我并不是没有想到,只是没有证据。如果民主党腐败了,共和党在干什么?两个党串通了?医药公司这次赚大钱,还有一些学者借疫情发文章,但他们左右不了疫情。


我最后说一句,疫苗的作用已经的到支持,疫苗的副作用也有证据。这两点我都看。但有些人,只看一点,这就无法讨论了。


还说一句,哈哈,我并没有把这个世界看得那么黑暗。当年武汉出事,国际社会援助,我倒是觉得很感人。



回复 | 1
作者:jingchen 回复 施化 留言时间:2021-10-27 19:01:26

方方面面,医药,媒体,IT,金融,特别是政府,从所谓的瘟疫得到太多好处。这段时间,社会极度原子化,上层对整个社会的管控能力大大增强。有这么多好处,瘟疫不会轻易消失的。

回复 | 1
作者:施化 留言时间:2021-10-27 17:18:45

好文!明明有人拿防疫当大生意来做,许多人毫无防范意识,还帮着促销,不遗余力。

回复 | 1
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· Rest
· Your pleasure is my pressure
· Are we getting more honest ove
· Understand and overlook
· A homage to our home
【故事】
· Crying wolf
· Trees and grasses
【诗词(十)】
· When the sun rises
· Observe and serve
· Sorrow
· Drift
· 对错和是非
· Illusion and disillusion
· V is for Valley
· Dead stove
· Word and sword
· Yes is for yesterday
【旅行(二)】
· Koreshan State Park
· How Arizona can sustain such a
· Redwood, Eureka and Klamath (A
· A Short Trip to US
· Two different worlds
· Granville Island
【政治(二)】
· Why is Marxism so popular?
· How much money is in politics?
· The biological impact of the p
· The purpose of government mand
· Why are criminals pampered by
· Why democracy is so fragile?
· 疫情时代的人口
· Difference between US and Cana
· On being conservative
· On Churchill
【科学(八)】
· Why acid can break down molecu
· Blood types, immune systems an
· 实验室制造的新型病毒: 对人类的
· 从侏罗纪公园说起
· How to make revolutionary idea
· On clean energy industries
· Measurement of fertility rate
【诗词(九)】
· Winter sun
· Old tree
· Victor or victim
· Lie, belie, believe
· 心
· Fall
· fine
· Going
· Love
· The most healthy food
【读书(二)】
· Fall of civilizations podcast
· 1984
· 读《夏商新考》
· East wind: Perspectives from t
· Elizabeth Barrett Browning: He
· Congo by Michael Crichton
· Kipling as a parent
· Some books about economics and
· How good were Charles Pearson’
· Brave New World
【语言(十)】
· 驾驭
· 慕容和 moron
· Religion
· Pastor: The lord of pasture
· 打 call 的英语是什么?
· What is knowledge? What is fat
· Now and yesterday
· 桑干河和 sungei
· Heyday
· Farsi, Parsi and Persian
【旅行】
· A fancy meal
· Kayaking in Ucluelet
· Where is the exit?
· Your fear is smarter than you
· Be a tourist in our own city
· How many red rivers are there?
· Dams
· Differential impacts of slow a
· Getting bored?
· On the road
【读书】
· The story of civilization (Com
· Hillbilly Elegy
· Bernhard Riemann: Turning poin
· Galbraith on new ideas
· Psychology of finance (Some q
· Timeline by Michael Crichton
· Reading Money: Whence it came,
· Capitalism, socialism and demo
· Music: a mathematical offering
· A book about Riemann hypothesi
【经济(五)】
· To maximize utility is to maxi
· Pareto optimal: Whose optimal?
· comment on Nobel Prize in Econ
· 关于阿罗-德布理论
· Is gold standard viable in tod
· Beyond Growth: Toward a New Ec
· On creating wealth
· Renaissance and Reformation
· 贸易不平衡的起因和解决方法
· On universal basic income
【诗词(八)】
· Ex and in
· Apprehend and apprehensive
· Poems about old age
· Host
· Insulate
· The default choice is to defau
· Traps and trappings
· No comfort without fort
· Sword and word
· Quest
【语言(九)】
· Nostalgia
· 徐江伟的历史理论
· 楚和梦
· Advice and vice
· Principle, principal and inter
· 狼
· Tribute
· Illusion and disillusion
· The gorges are gorgeous
· When June met August
【金融】
· Passive investment strategy an
· The size of your generation an
· Why it is optimal to be optimi
· Debt is an added risk
· Should arithmetic or geometric
· What constitute risk free asse
· A brief introduction to the se
· How to measure return
· The Big Short
【科学(七)】
· What is the meaning of life ex
· 一个不会摄影的人的感悟
· What we need, big data or big
· 进化理论的数学模型
· On inequality
· Grass from the old world and t
· 人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗?
【人口(三)】
· 中国目前的人口状况
· 一个社会人口中位年龄的趋势
· 鼓励生育的政策能提高生育率吗?
· 政府,家庭,和人口结构
· 从无籽西瓜说起
· 从炒股谈起
· The meaning of life
【诗词(七)】
· Edge
· Remember
· The power
· Truth in science and religion
· Happy in the backyard
· 野心
· Gene
· Intend
· RIP
· Nagging from an old man
【语言(八)】
· H, 日和 Helio
· Duo and double means two
· Good, gooder; bad, better
· 相似的形状,相似的读音,相关的
· 家
· 新年话创新
· Language, languish, anguish
· 钟表
· How to learn English effective
· 不通则痛,通则不痛
【科学(六)】
· 请教一个统计学的问题
· 数学及其应用
· On amateur and academic resear
【经济(四)】
· How much we need to save for r
· How pension system destroys ou
· Shall we buy insurance?
· An Entropy Theory of Value
· Total value of gold and some
【音乐】
· Suo Gan
· Mainstream rappers
· A Candle in the Wind
· 缺憾之美
· Swing low
· Going home
· River of no return
· Raw and refined: Two versions
【经济(三)】
· Own something small wholly or
· Money as a performance enhance
· How much we pay for retirement
· How to reduce anxiety over fi
· How to trim a tree or an econo
· A critique of economic theory
· The most depressing (exciting)
· On the concepts of earning, in
· 数学:应用和乐趣 (修订版)
【诗词(六)】
· Spring up and fall down
· Press
· Within and Without
· Verse
· Front
· Heroine and Heroin
· Sterilize
· Win
· Low
· Port
【诗词(五)】
· Pet and Pest
· Ease
· 忘,妄,望
· Seasons
· Envelope and develop
· Sorrow
· Home
· Haze
· Ex and Re
· Edge
【科学(五)】
· Why highly educated women and
· On the concept of perfectness
· Reflection from a riddle
· On averaging denominators
· Integrating mathematical finan
· 苦难是最好的学校
· Read The need for a new public
· The earth is a gigantic batter
【语言(七)】
· 想象和相象
· 汉语和英语读音的相似
· 双字词的来源
· 标致和婊子
· Credible and Incredible
· 英语和汉语类似的构词法
· Lect
· Excite and Incite
· Forget and For Get
· Lax and relax
【杂谈(三)】
· 经纬和泾渭
· Heretics are true believers
· Faith or good deeds
· 养儿还是育女?
· Should adult children stay wit
· 女儿制作的录像
· 儿子唱的rap
· 女儿带着女儿来看我们,写的一段
· Frills
【语言(六)】
· 腿脚和退却
· Copulate, copy, populate
· Emergence and emergency
· I am, I love
· Invent
· Prevent
· Repair
· Tart and top, start and stop
· S is about
· 同样的世界,不同的视角
【诗词(四)】
· On the wisdom of wisdom teeth
· Stalin Rap to Hitler and Mao
· 夕阳
· Sunshine
· Temp
· Longing
· Part
· Omen
· Winter night in the north
· An Old Car
【诗词(三)】
· Snow
· My Dear Sun
· When
· Cut Bank
· When you try
· Winter in the deep north
· 你家的月亮
· Good bye, my friends
· 当生命之火慢慢熄灭
· 公猫
【语言(五)】
· 兴趣,利益和利息
· Over 和 Overture
· Ruler
· Inspire and Expire
· 哥哥的歌
· Rest
· Decadence and decay
· 阀:大人物是干什么的?
· 奴隶的心
· 为什么我们喜欢压韵?
【语言 (四)】
· Screw and screwed
· 黄
· Kind
· Sun and moon
· Free
· Norm, normal and Normans
· Bella and bellum
· Two meanings of like
· What is a theory?
· What is man?
【经济 (二)】
· Reading James Galbraith’s The
· 为他人作嫁衣裳:贸易强国的共同
· 什么是内需不足?
· 关于持续的贸易不平衡
· A long tradition to connect th
· On persistent trade imbalance
· On green economy
· What are rights: Some reflecti
· On Risk Management
· 怎样计算股票的融资成本和预期回
【杂谈 (二)】
· There is more brainwashing in
· 看女儿
· 女儿初为人母
· Weather and climate
· 老三的一篇短文
· When defects become an advanta
· Service of necessities and ser
· 女儿的帖子
· 荷花和塘泥
【科学(四)】
· Predictions in social sciences
· 数学的现状和未来
· Social structures: A perspecti
· 温度和情绪 (temperature and t
· Learning, memory and decision
· The Least Action Principle: It
· When an electron falls to a pr
· 为什么鱼比肉更容易煮熟?
· 一篇关于The Unity of Science a
【诗词(二)】
· I’d rather
· 日暮
· 池塘里的污泥
· Over and under
· Bond and bondage
· 夕阳
· Dandelion
· 早点睡觉
· 在我慢慢褪色的世界里
· 狮的低吟,诗的回声
【语言(三)】
· 相似的单词,不同的意思
· 小米和 millet
· AM is love
· 什么是不够
· Easter: 词的来源
· 论所谓的正能量 (On being posit
· Terr 是土地
· Radical 的意思是什么?
· 努力的奴隶
· Tri 是三
【诗词】
· 风筝:孩子离家
· 篝火
· 落日:致老去的人们
· 杜达尔和玛丽亚
· Deep North
· Driving crazy
· 燃烧和发烧
· 满月的冬夜
· 献给空巢的父母
· Burning and burn out
【健康(三)】
· Mentally stimulating
· On obsessive compulsive disord
· 吃盐和生育
· Ginger and gingerly
· Principle Based Medicine
· Why we need pain?
· 关于自闭症
· 健康的定义
· 针灸的原理
· 情感的守恒定律
【科学(三)】
· 数学及其在社会科学中的应用
· 为什么光线弱的地方会觉得浪漫?
· 美是平均,美是不变的性质
· 颜色和温度
· 简洁就是美
· 栖息之地:健康的树和濒死的树
· 落红不是无情物,化作春泥更护花
· 为什么肥沃的土地上很难找到先锋
· 不平等,效率和系统维护成本
· 生物学的统一理论
【语言(二)】
· 论精美
· 铁 (fer)
· 家
· 我,倭,和,we
· 鹪鹩,娇娆,wren, 人,文
· 牡丹,Botan, Botany
· 人多则移
· 英语中的几个象形词
· 他和它
· 趣味英语:一个不引人注意的前缀
【科学(二)】
· 基因突变不是完全偶然的
· 生物学和生态学的结合
· Energy consumption and cost
· 人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗?
· 蝴蝶效应并不存在 (兼论偏微分
· 科学与经济学的统一
· 意识: 一个经济学和物理学的理论
· 诺奖得主年龄的变迁
· 学科细分: 社会停滞和衰退的表征
【健康(二)】
· On cortisol and other drugs
· 为什么负氧离子有益健康
· 吃冰和减肥
· 实用生理学
· 为什么晒太阳有好处?
· 为什么练功经常用圆型姿式?
· 脉搏中包含多少信息?
· 外科手术不伤身体吗?
· 头痛医脚
· 怎样才能改善内脏的功能
【人口(二)】
· 政府的法律和自然的法律
· 出生率,平均寿命,生活水平和社
· Holmes stories: The number of
· 个体年龄和社会年龄
· 多子多福
· 人口塌陷: 真正的悲剧
· 华人的高智商和低生育率
· 走出非洲
· 生命就是竞争
· 什么是文化
【人口】
· 聪明的代价:亚当和夏娃的故事
· 为什么大道至简
· 论移民
· 人口问题文章的一个汇总
· 人口警报?
· 人口红利和人口投资
· 多生孩子: 靠政策,还是靠自己?
· 华而不实和春华秋实
· 劝君莫惜金缕衣,劝君惜取少年时
· 政府越大,出生率越低
【政治】
· 关于全民基本收入
· 六四还是六三?
· Iron and blood
· 华人参政不够踊跃吗?
· 谁得益于大政府?兼论美国大选
· 印一百元假钞是犯罪,印一万亿真
· 量化宽松和猪肉注水
· 百年大势和英国脱欧
【杂谈】
· 搭错车
· 龙图腾的含义
· 个体的肥胖和社会的肥胖
· 在什么年纪,做什么事情
· 早晨出行和下午出行
· 男学生在哪里?
· 贱和基本
· 少数的重要性
【经济】
· 效用函数是什么样子的?
· 经济学理论不应该建立在拓扑学基
· 谁是二十世纪最伟大的经济学家?
· 谁是十九世纪最伟大的经济学家?
· 非平衡态经济学理论简介
· 凯恩斯主义适用的环境
· 从日本的负利率谈起
· 关于利率
· 生产过程各要素之间的关系
· 平衡态和非平衡态经济学
【加拿大】
· 一个登山爱好者的历险 (附视频
· 回归
· 海达圭游记
· 天尽头
· 红河谷歌词的变迁
· 洄游的三文鱼
· 碧西(BC)的风景和阿省的风景
· 中加教育比较
【语言】
· 决定和 decide
· 仇的两种读法
· 小儿子教我读书
· 汉语单词的起源
· 舒服和束缚
· 姓张的人为什么这么多?
· 纽,妞,丑,new, 牛
· 姜太公的故事
· 语言的产生和演变
【科学】
· 科学研究:缺的是钱吗?
· 数学:应用和乐趣
· 汉字和科学研究
· 社会生物学与社会
· 有趣的化学
· 蒲公英和科学研究
· 当代没有科学大师吗?
· 数学,美和现实
· 现实世界:理解数学的金钥匙
【健康】
· 按摩脚底为什么这么重要?
· 中医的疗效(续)
· 从蛋白质的不同分解途径看痛风的
· 中医的疗效
· 从哮喘的治疗谈预防
· 实用生理学
· 什么是酸性食物?
· 肥胖和内脏功能
· 呼吸的方法
· 关于抑郁
【科学与经济】
· 阅读The Unity of Science and E
· 信息和熵的等价性
· 知觉的简单和数学的简单
· 一流的研究: 真那么难吗?
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