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Poverty rates and presidential popularity
I have a look at the poverty rates over the years. Lower poverty rates do not mean higher presidential popularity.
Specifically, poverty rates at 1960 to 1963 were very high. But JFK seemed to be a very popular president. Poverty rate at 1968 was a lot lower, probably due to Great Society program . But LBJ at 1968 was not very popular. Poverty rates at Reagan presidency were higher than Carter, probably due to program cuts during Reagan presidency. Carter was much less popular than Reagan. Poverty rates at Biden’s time dropped substantially, probably due to COVID related programs that triggered inflation. Trump winned the election.
Here's a summary of the annual poverty rates in the United States from 1960 to 2023:
| Year | Poverty Rate (%) |
|------|------------------|
| 1960 | 22.4 |
| 1961 | 22.2 |
| 1962 | 22.2 |
| 1963 | 22.0 |
| 1964 | 19.0 |
| 1965 | 17.3 |
| 1966 | 14.7 |
| 1967 | 14.2 |
| 1968 | 12.8 |
| 1969 | 12.1 |
| 1970 | 12.6 |
| 1971 | 11.9 |
| 1972 | 11.1 |
| 1973 | 11.1 |
| 1974 | 11.2 |
| 1975 | 12.3 |
| 1976 | 12.6 |
| 1977 | 11.4 |
| 1978 | 11.1 |
| 1979 | 11.7 |
| 1980 | 13.0 |
| 1981 | 13.2 |
| 1982 | 15.2 |
| 1983 | 15.1 |
| 1984 | 14.4 |
| 1985 | 14.2 |
| 1986 | 14.4 |
| 1987 | 13.6 |
| 1988 | 13.1 |
| 1989 | 12.8 |
| 1990 | 13.1 |
| 1991 | 14.2 |
| 1992 | 14.8 |
| 1993 | 15.1 |
| 1994 | 14.5 |
| 1995 | 13.8 |
| 1996 | 13.7 |
| 1997 | 13.3 |
| 1998 | 12.7 |
| 1999 | 11.8 |
| 2000 | 11.3 |
| 2001 | 11.7 |
| 2002 | 11.7 |
| 2003 | 12.5 |
| 2004 | 12.7 |
| 2005 | 12.6 |
| 2006 | 12.3 |
| 2007 | 12.5 |
| 2008 | 13.2 |
| 2009 | 14.3 |
| 2010 | 15.1 |
| 2011 | 15.0 |
| 2012 | 15.0 |
| 2013 | 14.5 |
| 2014 | 14.8 |
| 2015 | 13.5 |
| 2016 | 12.7 |
| 2017 | 12.3 |
| 2018 | 11.8 |
| 2019 | 10.5 |
| 2020 | 9.2 |
| 2021 | 8.5 |
| 2022 | 8.0 |
| 2023 | 7.5 |
Annual median household incomes may be a better explanation. For example, median household incomes declined from 2020 to 2024.
Year | Median Household Income | Inflation Adjusted (2024) | 1968 | $7,005 | $64,061 | 1969 | $7,683 | $67,235 | 1970 | $8,330 | $69,253 | 1971 | $8,700 | $68,293 | 1972 | $9,000 | $67,741 | 1973 | $9,648 | $70,304 | 1974 | $10,378 | $71,091 | 1975 | $11,000 | $67,970 | 1976 | $11,700 | $66,252 | 1977 | $12,604 | $67,406 | 1978 | $13,500 | $67,834 | 1979 | $15,000 | $70,166 | 1980 | $16,400 | $68,797 | 1981 | $17,666 | $65,275 | 1982 | $19,000 | $63,647 | 1983 | $20,000 | $63,178 | 1984 | $20,687 | $63,272 | 1985 | $22,260 | $65,246 | 1986 | $23,530 | $66,620 | 1987 | $24,744 | $68,779 | 1988 | $25,900 | $69,459 | 1989 | $27,050 | $69,682 | 1990 | $28,838 | $70,893 | 1991 | $29,834 | $69,511 | 1992 | $30,000 | $67,078 | 1993 | $30,439 | $66,120 | 1994 | $31,000 | $65,397 | 1995 | $32,140 | $66,050 | 1996 | $34,000 | $67,963 | 1997 | $35,172 | $68,290 | 1998 | $36,928 | $70,136 | 1999 | $38,816 | $72,591 | 2000 | $40,551 | $74,168 | 2001 | $42,000 | $74,292 | 2002 | $42,125 | $72,480 | 2003 | $42,381 | $71,773 | 2004 | $43,160 | $71,503 | 2005 | $44,097 | $71,123 | 2006 | $46,001 | $71,788 | 2007 | $48,020 | $72,586 | 2008 | $50,000 | $73,454 | 2009 | $50,000 | $70,782 | 2010 | $49,578 | $70,457 | 2011 | $49,100 | $68,605 | 2012 | $50,000 | $67,741 | 2013 | $50,306 | $66,819 | 2014 | $53,568 | $70,033 | 2015 | $53,600 | $69,038 | 2016 | $56,025 | $71,657 | 2017 | $58,849 | $74,746 | 2018 | $60,810 | $75,609 | 2019 | $63,030 | $76,498 | 2020 | $68,400 | $81,501 | 2021 | $67,463 | $79,453 | 2022 | $70,181 | $78,943 | 2023 | $74,202 | $75,523 | 2024 | $80,020 | $80,020 |
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